List of Eight: 2008

It is time to reveal the 8th Annual List of 8. Before we start here’s a recap of what the List of 8 as published in my blog last year.

What is the List of Eight? Back in 2001, my father said that the NCAA Tournament was completely random and was not an accurate representation of the best team. I disagreed saying while the best team didn't always win, the team that emerged victorious deserved to be called national champion. I also said it wasn't as much of a crapshoot as he believed. He challenged me that to pick eight teams at the start of the tournament out of the possible 64/65. He said that he would take the remaining field. That year, four teams from my list made it to the Final Four. Thus the challenge was born. This year I will be going for the eighth straight year of winning this challenge. Here are the basic rules in case you didn't totally understand.1. I pick eight teams. One of them MUST win the national title for me to declare victory. If seven of eight lose in the first round, it is not fair to mock me for I have one team remaining. Likewise, if I have seven of eight teams left, it would make no sense to brag too much, as the one remaining wild card can defeat me in the challenge. There are no bonus points for how far they advance. A team from the list MUST win the title or I lose.2. These are not necessarily who I think are the best teams. Depending on matchups, I may choose teams I feel to be generally inferior but who may have a favorable draw.3. There is no maximum or minimum number of teams I can choose in each regional. I may choose zero in a given region. I may choose eight in a region. It is my choice. However, as I am doing this year, I will generally pick two from each region. This seems to be a way to "diversify" for a favorable outcome.

Now that the rules are out of the way, time to reveal the list from which the NCAA champion will emerge.

Duke 27-5 #2 West
Why they could win it: Because they’re ready for blood after last year’s embarrassing first round exit against VCU. With Coach K at the helm, would you bet on a second straight early exit? Duke has a deadly three point shooting touch when they’re hot and can frustrate the best offense with their turnover forcing defense.
Why they won’t win it: Duke struggled down the stretch going 5-4, so teams may have figured out the way to beat them. Since they lost Josh McRoberts to the NBA, the Blue Devils can be exploited for lack of size against the wrong opponent. If this happens in a game where Duke is ice cold, it could be a very early exit.

Kansas 31-3 #1 Midwest
Why they could win it: I think they’re the best team in the nation. With Chalmers, Arthur and Co and Bill Self coaching, this is my favorite to win it all. The only team to have a top 3 offense and defense (1st in Offense and 3rd in Defense according to Ken Pomeroy). If aren’t ready to play at the beginning, then you will be down bunches early.
Why they won’t win it: I think the team is so good that they get bored and lose focus. If they do and play a team that doesn’t back down and can stay in it, they could lose. But the underdog will need to get the crowd behind them. If it’s a Kansas crowd, I don’t see the Jayhawks getting knocked out before San Antonio.

Louisville 24-8 #3 East
Why they could win it: Rick Pitino is one of the best coaches in the game. The draw is favorable as I think Tennessee is the weakest #2 seed. One of the strongest defenses in the nation.
Why they won’t win it: Probably the weakest offensive team among the major contenders. Some very concerning losses in the regular season such as Cincinnati and Seton Hall.

Memphis 33-1 #1 South
Why they could win it: After two straight years of just missing the list, the Tigers storm on this year. This is a loaded team and nearly didn’t break a sweat during the regular season. Ferocious defense, outstanding rebounding and two of the top 10 players in the nation. What’s not to like?
Why they won’t win it: Their free shooting for instance. They were one of the bottom five in the NATION. And it cost them against Tennessee. Free throws don’t matter if you’re winning by 20. But Memphis will have at least one tough game on their way to a title. And if they’re not hitting free throws, they are in trouble. The three point shooting is also inconsistent. Expect to see lots of zone against this team. Are they ready since they have played in such a weak conference all season long.

North Carolina 32-2 #1 East
Why they could win it: I think Michael Beasley is the best player in the country. But Tyler Hansbrough is a very close 2nd. And the rest of the cast is stellar. Not sure any team other than Kansas or Memphis is comfortable playing at the pace the Tar Heels will be playing at.
Why they won’t win it: I can’t put my finger on it…but this team doesn’t really look like a 2 loss team to me. They’ve done really well, but I am not convinced they are on the same level as the other #1 seeds. Roy Williams has shown he can win the big one, but sometimes as with Georgetown last year, he gets completely outcoached. Like Kansas, I think this team sometimes thinks they are better than they really are. Brutal draw with a potential game against Indiana in the second round. Inconsistent on defense.

Texas 28-6 #2 South
Why they could win it: Having D.J. Augustin helps. The only team to beat both Kansas and UCLA. They’re one of the best offenses in the country and although they might be the weakest defense amongst the contenders, they are improving.
Why they won’t win it: I think Rick Barnes is a heck of a recruiter. I’m not sure if he is one of the elite coaches. They’re weak in rebounding. If you can control the guards, you have a chance to win.

UCLA 31-3 #1 West
Why they could win it: Well Florida can’t beat them. The Gators have knocked the Bruins out the last two years. No Gator bait this time. Kevin Love is a strong candidate for Player of the Year as a freshman. The Bruins won the Pac-10 by 3 full games. Their defense can make the best team look like a bad high school JV squad.
Why they won’t win it: Control their three point shooting and get the starters in trouble and you have a chance. Easier said than done but that’s the way it is.

Wisconsin 29-4 #3
Why they could win it: How is this team a #3 seed? They won the Big 10 regular season and postseason tournament. Bo Ryan is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and with the best defense in the country and a frustratingly slow pace, the Badgers just get the job done.
Why they won’t win it: Play fast. The Badgers don’t like it. They allowed more than 70 points three times this season. They lost all 3. The Blowout Rule may be in effect. Teams generally don’t win national titles with losses of 20 or more in the regular season. As Duke beat them 82-58, that is a concern.
Now that the teams have been selected, let’s look at a few I considered but eliminated for various reasons.

Georgetown: Tough draw with Kansas and Wisconsin. Also not sure if this team is as Final Four caliber as last year’s was. Probably the team most dangerous of ruining the list though.
Washington State: A team that loves to play slow and is good at. But if they get behind, it’s hard for them to come back playing that way.
Stanford: Stanford is certainly capable of going on a run. Might have made the list but the matchups look hard throughout their region especially with a potential second round date with Marquette. Watch out for the Cardinal though.
Tennessee: Some will be shocked I didn’t include them. I’m just not sold. They’re a good team but there are better choices in my view.
Marquette: Similar to Stanford in they are very good but difficult matchups await. Kentucky will be a tough out. The most dangerous seed lower than 4 in the field.
Clemson: The Tigers have proven they could be a dark horse pick with three outstanding games against UNC. But in a bracket with Kansas, I just don’t see them going very far. But don’t be surprised if they make a run.