My brother has gotten me interested in pro wrestling again. I've always been a fan off and on going through phases since I was younger. I guess he's roped me into yet another phase. I've been watching some of his collection of PPVs and watching some of the old classics. I thought I'd post this one I found on YouTube the other day. It's a TNA match from 2005 for the X-Division Championship between Christopher Daniels, A.J. Styles, and one of my new favorites, Samoa Joe. It's a long match but it's one of the best I've ever seen. Hope you enjoy!
Friday, March 30, 2007
Final Four Picks
We're down to the Final Four. So here's who I think will emerge triumphant in Saturday's games.
Georgetown-Ohio State: For our first semifinal, everyone is going to talk about the battle of the big men. Oden vs Hibbert. But the way they've been in foul trouble, that may be one of the minor parts of the game. Both teams have escaped some close calls with Georgetown needing a buzzer beater to beat Vanderbilt and an astounding comeback and defensive performance down the stretch against UNC. Meanwhile, Ohio State needed large comebacks against both Tennessee and Xavier. This looks to truly be a coinflip game to me. I would be really surprised if this is not down to the wire. Georgetown has an incredible offense but Ohio State is nearly as good at executing when they need to. And since OSU has three losses this year, it's not like they've proven to be vulnerable. I'll take the guy who will be the #1 NBA pick this year though. Ohio State 69 Georgetown 68
UCLA-Florida: It's a rematch of last year's national championship in the second semifinal. I think UCLA will make sure this game is a little closer than last year's beatdown. UCLA has shown yet again that they may have the most fearsome defense in the country, able to make any team look bad. As I said before, Florida made the Bruins look bad last year and they're the same team. Meanwhile, according to Ken Pomeroy, UCLA is even more dependent on Afflalo than they were last year. So if the Gators can shut him down, it's likely curtains again for UCLA. But it's always hard to win the rematch. And with the constant pressures of repeating and remaining focussed, I wonder if this could be the game Florida slips on their road to repeat. Add in the rumors that Billy Donovan could be going to Kentucky after the season, and you have to wonder if Florida's mind is truly on this game. Still, I'll pick the Gators, but as I said don't expect another beatdown. Florida 68 UCLA 67
Georgetown-Ohio State: For our first semifinal, everyone is going to talk about the battle of the big men. Oden vs Hibbert. But the way they've been in foul trouble, that may be one of the minor parts of the game. Both teams have escaped some close calls with Georgetown needing a buzzer beater to beat Vanderbilt and an astounding comeback and defensive performance down the stretch against UNC. Meanwhile, Ohio State needed large comebacks against both Tennessee and Xavier. This looks to truly be a coinflip game to me. I would be really surprised if this is not down to the wire. Georgetown has an incredible offense but Ohio State is nearly as good at executing when they need to. And since OSU has three losses this year, it's not like they've proven to be vulnerable. I'll take the guy who will be the #1 NBA pick this year though. Ohio State 69 Georgetown 68
UCLA-Florida: It's a rematch of last year's national championship in the second semifinal. I think UCLA will make sure this game is a little closer than last year's beatdown. UCLA has shown yet again that they may have the most fearsome defense in the country, able to make any team look bad. As I said before, Florida made the Bruins look bad last year and they're the same team. Meanwhile, according to Ken Pomeroy, UCLA is even more dependent on Afflalo than they were last year. So if the Gators can shut him down, it's likely curtains again for UCLA. But it's always hard to win the rematch. And with the constant pressures of repeating and remaining focussed, I wonder if this could be the game Florida slips on their road to repeat. Add in the rumors that Billy Donovan could be going to Kentucky after the season, and you have to wonder if Florida's mind is truly on this game. Still, I'll pick the Gators, but as I said don't expect another beatdown. Florida 68 UCLA 67
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
An idea for the Easter spirit
I had an idea during a Fark discussion tonight. We were talking about people pleading the Fifth in the attorney firing scandal but we were wondering why Alberto Gonzales wasn't testifying until April 17 and if it was because Easter Break. Well of course I went off on a tangent about Gonzales being compelled to testify in a pink bunny suit. But my best idea was when people testify but plead the Fifth. I think everyone should have to eat a peep every time they take the Fifth. Mainly for entertainment purposes. But also, you'd only take the Fifth when you had to, because if you eat too many peeps, it'll make you sick. This idea will revolutionize the legal world.
Peeps. It's what's for dinner.
Peeps. It's what's for dinner.
Tpinyg wilhe dnurk
I took my grandmother to get her car fixed in Hickory today. Which is at least the 4th time I've been on this trip. She drives a Mercedes Benz from the 1970s and for some reason she refuses to trade it in for a new car. So what's the closest place that deals with German cars? Well...you guessed it. It wasn't that bad a trip either. She paid for my lunch and gave me gas money (I try to say no but she insists).
Remember I said I was gonna post an Arcade Fire review by last Thursday. Yeah...I forgot. It'll come soon though. I'm just too tired to right it out write now. Alan would be proud of that last sentence. I think.
Do you like how I namedrop people in these posts without explaining who they are? Since some people read this and don't know me very well, I think that's very appropriate. It's a nice way to make people feel confused.
Slate is predicting that Alberto Gonzales will be out by Friday. I scoff at that assertion. Doesn't he have testimony before Congress in mid-April? I'd be surprised if he's gone by then. In fact, I think he may hold on till around the summer. But I'd be real surprised if he's gone in the next few weeks.
College students are telling Facebook that high schoolers should be kicked off because they keep posting pictures of themselves partying. If that were the case, wouldn't 99% of Facebook users be banned?
Remember I said I was gonna post an Arcade Fire review by last Thursday. Yeah...I forgot. It'll come soon though. I'm just too tired to right it out write now. Alan would be proud of that last sentence. I think.
Do you like how I namedrop people in these posts without explaining who they are? Since some people read this and don't know me very well, I think that's very appropriate. It's a nice way to make people feel confused.
Slate is predicting that Alberto Gonzales will be out by Friday. I scoff at that assertion. Doesn't he have testimony before Congress in mid-April? I'd be surprised if he's gone by then. In fact, I think he may hold on till around the summer. But I'd be real surprised if he's gone in the next few weeks.
College students are telling Facebook that high schoolers should be kicked off because they keep posting pictures of themselves partying. If that were the case, wouldn't 99% of Facebook users be banned?
Monday, March 26, 2007
Interesting article
I know a lot of people who go on and on about how cigarettes are bad for you and whatnot. Yet they don't think twice about getting drunk all the time. Here's an interesting study by the Lancet in which they ranked drugs on riskiness to society.
As you can see, tobacco ranked 9th which is higher than many illegal drugs such as marijuana (11th) and LSD (14th). However, alcohol ranked as the 5th riskiest drug in society only being beaten by heroin, cocaine, barbiturates, and street methadone. Seems to me that some should get their stories straight before criticizing some drug users, when their drug of choice is deemed more dangerous to society than the ones they're criticizing by researchers.
As you can see, tobacco ranked 9th which is higher than many illegal drugs such as marijuana (11th) and LSD (14th). However, alcohol ranked as the 5th riskiest drug in society only being beaten by heroin, cocaine, barbiturates, and street methadone. Seems to me that some should get their stories straight before criticizing some drug users, when their drug of choice is deemed more dangerous to society than the ones they're criticizing by researchers.
Final Four Odds
Ken Pomeroy updated his site and I got the same numbers as he did. Here are the odds of the Final Four teams winning the national championship.
1. Florida 28.53%
2. Ohio State 24.61%
3. Georgetown 24.42%
4. UCLA 22.43%
So as you can see, it's definitely anybody's game. I mean assuming all teams were equal, they'd all have about a 25% chance of winning it and the highest is Florida at 28.53%. But that's not that much greater than 25% so this is about as closely matched Final Four as you can possibly have. Compare that to last year where you had George Mason who I think only had a 10% chance of winning their final two games. The "weakest" team remaining is arguably UCLA who I thought should have been a #1 seed and might have the best defense in the country. So expect some close games on Saturday and Monday. I'll post game predictions later this week.
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 47-14
1. Florida 28.53%
2. Ohio State 24.61%
3. Georgetown 24.42%
4. UCLA 22.43%
So as you can see, it's definitely anybody's game. I mean assuming all teams were equal, they'd all have about a 25% chance of winning it and the highest is Florida at 28.53%. But that's not that much greater than 25% so this is about as closely matched Final Four as you can possibly have. Compare that to last year where you had George Mason who I think only had a 10% chance of winning their final two games. The "weakest" team remaining is arguably UCLA who I thought should have been a #1 seed and might have the best defense in the country. So expect some close games on Saturday and Monday. I'll post game predictions later this week.
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 47-14
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Final Four Update
We're down to the Final Four. Florida, UCLA, Georgetown, and Ohio State will be duking it out for the title. Looks like it's just about anybody's game. I'll update with percentage odds later.
My North Carolina over Kansas pick in the final sure flopped. Oddly enough, those were the only two Final Four teams I missed.
On a brighter note, after Florida beat Oregon today, it assured the List of Eight a 7th consecutive year of being correct as the remaining four were all included. There is a 100% chance I will be correct again this year. Huzzah! Which goes to show, that if you're filling out your bracket and pick a team I don't include such as...I don't know....Tennessee, you are probably wrong. That's just the way it is. To an Eight year for the List of Eight! Cheers!
My North Carolina over Kansas pick in the final sure flopped. Oddly enough, those were the only two Final Four teams I missed.
On a brighter note, after Florida beat Oregon today, it assured the List of Eight a 7th consecutive year of being correct as the remaining four were all included. There is a 100% chance I will be correct again this year. Huzzah! Which goes to show, that if you're filling out your bracket and pick a team I don't include such as...I don't know....Tennessee, you are probably wrong. That's just the way it is. To an Eight year for the List of Eight! Cheers!
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Update on the CNBC game
If you remember, I'm taking part in CNBC's contest to win a million dollars. Well, my position has slipped some but I'm still in the top 7% overall. My official rank right now is 29,478. I've officially gained 10.80% since the contest started with my stock gains and answering bonus questions correctly. So I'm in ok shape. I just need to have a big run before the finals begin. I still have all of my portfolio in Meritage Homes. Not sure if that's the one to give me the run, but it's currently my favorite stock that's eligible to be traded according to the rules. Still most of my gain is from New Century after that big one day gain. Of course it's not eligible to be traded anymore as it was delisted and is trending towards bankruptcy. But that's how the game is going now.
Elite Eight Picks
#1 Ohio State-#2 Memphis: Ohio State keeps living on the edge giving big leads up to Xavier and Tennessee before mounting comebacks. They're a good enough team that they can afford to do it against teams like those. They better not do it with Memphis though because I'm not sure if they can mount another comeback against this solid team. This is Memphis's second straight trip to the final eight and this time they want to finish the job and make it to the Final Four. Their win against Texas A&M proved that they were no creation of the very weak schedule and that they are a member of the elite teams this year. Memphis can definitely win this game especially because this looks to be the toughest game for any of the #1 seeds this round. Still, I wonder if the hideous foul shooting will cost Memphis a trip to the Final Four. I'm going to say it will in this close game. But Ohio State better come out ready to play because they can't afford to spot a similar lead to Memphis as they did with Tennessee. Ohio State 70 Memphis 68
#1 Kansas-#2 UCLA: Interesting game between the best two defenses in the country. Of course these two can light you up too if you're not careful. But the Kansas offense is better than the Bruins. I also think the superior talent will win it out as UCLA is not an especially deep team. Another close contest but the Jayhawks will advance to the Final Four. Kansas 67 UCLA 64
#1 Florida-#3 Oregon: It took awhile but the Gators figured out Butler. Oregon pretty much blew out UNLV until the last few minutes where they lost focus and allowed Vegas to mount a comeback. That better be out of their system now as they play their first truly elite team of the tourney. I'm still not sure how good the Ducks are. They have beaten Miami (Ohio), Winthrop, and UNLV. They swept through the Pac-10 Tourney but I thought the Pac-10 was pretty weak this year. I'm a tad concerned as well because Oregon is the weakest defensive team remaining. And remember, defense wins championships. I think Oregon's shooting luck will run out this game as the defending champs are starting to look focused. The Gators will make sure they return to the Final Four. Florida 77 Oregon 70
#1 North Carolina-#2 Georgetown: How good is North Carolina? They can get completely beaten in the first 30 minutes of a game, and still end up winning by double digits. That's exactly what they did against USC last night. But now it's time for their toughest test of the season as they play Georgetown who narrowly escaped Vanderbilt. Georgetown will give them a fight, but UNC matches up well and plays a style that should be able to exploit the Hoyas. North Carolina advances to give us a Final Four of all #1 seeds (assuming all my other predictions were correct as well). North Carolina 73 Georgetown 70
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 45-12
#1 Kansas-#2 UCLA: Interesting game between the best two defenses in the country. Of course these two can light you up too if you're not careful. But the Kansas offense is better than the Bruins. I also think the superior talent will win it out as UCLA is not an especially deep team. Another close contest but the Jayhawks will advance to the Final Four. Kansas 67 UCLA 64
#1 Florida-#3 Oregon: It took awhile but the Gators figured out Butler. Oregon pretty much blew out UNLV until the last few minutes where they lost focus and allowed Vegas to mount a comeback. That better be out of their system now as they play their first truly elite team of the tourney. I'm still not sure how good the Ducks are. They have beaten Miami (Ohio), Winthrop, and UNLV. They swept through the Pac-10 Tourney but I thought the Pac-10 was pretty weak this year. I'm a tad concerned as well because Oregon is the weakest defensive team remaining. And remember, defense wins championships. I think Oregon's shooting luck will run out this game as the defending champs are starting to look focused. The Gators will make sure they return to the Final Four. Florida 77 Oregon 70
#1 North Carolina-#2 Georgetown: How good is North Carolina? They can get completely beaten in the first 30 minutes of a game, and still end up winning by double digits. That's exactly what they did against USC last night. But now it's time for their toughest test of the season as they play Georgetown who narrowly escaped Vanderbilt. Georgetown will give them a fight, but UNC matches up well and plays a style that should be able to exploit the Hoyas. North Carolina advances to give us a Final Four of all #1 seeds (assuming all my other predictions were correct as well). North Carolina 73 Georgetown 70
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 45-12
Thoughts on the Elite Eight
I'll have my Elite Eight picks tomorrow because I don't feel like writing them out since it's nearly 3 in the morning.
I said it in the Sweet 16 round and I'll say it for this next round. This is the strongest field of final teams I've ever seen. Let's look at the remaining teams.
Florida: SEC Champ
Oregon: Pac-10 Champ
Kansas: Big 12 Champ
UCLA: Pac-10 regular season champ
North Carolina: ACC Champ
Georgetown: Big East Champ
Ohio State: Big Ten Champ
Memphis: Conference USA Champ
So that's the major six conferences' tournament champion, an extremely good Memphis team from a has-been power conference, and UCLA who was the dominant team in the Pac-10 this year but was eliminated early in the tournament. We have whittled the field down to eight teams and there is still no clear favorite for the title. When the weakest team is the Pac-10 champ and a #3 seed, you know the final seven games are going to be wild.
I also did the calculations for winning the national title again for this round. Here's the new ranking.
1. North Carolina 24.74%
2. Kansas 21.96%
3. Florida 18.83%
4. Ohio State 11.04%
5. Georgetown 8.73%
6. UCLA 7.83%
7. Memphis 5.36%
8. Oregon 1.50%
As you can see UNC took back the lead over Kansas. I figure it was due to UNC had a more impressive margin of victory over USC than Kansas did over Southern Illinois as these calculations can be changed due to scoring. Still, the "favorite" has a greater than 75% chance of not winning the title. That's remarkable at this point.
My List of Eight's odds improved slightly but not much from last round. I only lost Texas A&M.
No team improved their odds more than Memphis last round. Probably because that was the only team I didn't expect to advance from the Sweet 16 that did so. Beating Texas A&M more than doubled their odds of winning it all.
Georgetown and Kansas were the only teams to lose ground in the odds probably due to their very close victories. In fact, since the tourney began, Georgetown and Ohio State are the only teams to lose ground from their original odds. Ohio State's is definitely because of needing huge comebacks against Xavier and Tennessee. I think Georgetown might also have to do with now having a 100% chance of having to play the "favorite" UNC. But it should be a close game. There will definitely be no "gimmes" from this point on.
Only two teams left to ruin my List of Eight as I mentioned. Memphis is starting to scare me (especially as they were the last team I excluded.) Ohio State has looked the weakest of the #1 seeds so I figure that is the most likely #1 seed to get knocked out of the next round. Oregon has improved their odds more than any team remaining but I'm still not sure about them as they've played Miami (Ohio), Winthrop and UNLV. To finish the job they'll have to win against Florida, either Kansas or UCLA, and then one more to win it all. Possible but I don't see it.
Will this be the year that all four #1 seeds make the Final Four? Before we get all excited, remember we had all four #1 seeds in the Sweet 16 last year and three in the Elite Eight. None made it to the Final Four. Of course last year was filled with crazy upsets and the theme of this year's tourney is the dominant teams have advanced. But we'll see this weekend.
Picks coming tomorrow as I said. Have a good night.
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 45-12
I said it in the Sweet 16 round and I'll say it for this next round. This is the strongest field of final teams I've ever seen. Let's look at the remaining teams.
Florida: SEC Champ
Oregon: Pac-10 Champ
Kansas: Big 12 Champ
UCLA: Pac-10 regular season champ
North Carolina: ACC Champ
Georgetown: Big East Champ
Ohio State: Big Ten Champ
Memphis: Conference USA Champ
So that's the major six conferences' tournament champion, an extremely good Memphis team from a has-been power conference, and UCLA who was the dominant team in the Pac-10 this year but was eliminated early in the tournament. We have whittled the field down to eight teams and there is still no clear favorite for the title. When the weakest team is the Pac-10 champ and a #3 seed, you know the final seven games are going to be wild.
I also did the calculations for winning the national title again for this round. Here's the new ranking.
1. North Carolina 24.74%
2. Kansas 21.96%
3. Florida 18.83%
4. Ohio State 11.04%
5. Georgetown 8.73%
6. UCLA 7.83%
7. Memphis 5.36%
8. Oregon 1.50%
As you can see UNC took back the lead over Kansas. I figure it was due to UNC had a more impressive margin of victory over USC than Kansas did over Southern Illinois as these calculations can be changed due to scoring. Still, the "favorite" has a greater than 75% chance of not winning the title. That's remarkable at this point.
My List of Eight's odds improved slightly but not much from last round. I only lost Texas A&M.
No team improved their odds more than Memphis last round. Probably because that was the only team I didn't expect to advance from the Sweet 16 that did so. Beating Texas A&M more than doubled their odds of winning it all.
Georgetown and Kansas were the only teams to lose ground in the odds probably due to their very close victories. In fact, since the tourney began, Georgetown and Ohio State are the only teams to lose ground from their original odds. Ohio State's is definitely because of needing huge comebacks against Xavier and Tennessee. I think Georgetown might also have to do with now having a 100% chance of having to play the "favorite" UNC. But it should be a close game. There will definitely be no "gimmes" from this point on.
Only two teams left to ruin my List of Eight as I mentioned. Memphis is starting to scare me (especially as they were the last team I excluded.) Ohio State has looked the weakest of the #1 seeds so I figure that is the most likely #1 seed to get knocked out of the next round. Oregon has improved their odds more than any team remaining but I'm still not sure about them as they've played Miami (Ohio), Winthrop and UNLV. To finish the job they'll have to win against Florida, either Kansas or UCLA, and then one more to win it all. Possible but I don't see it.
Will this be the year that all four #1 seeds make the Final Four? Before we get all excited, remember we had all four #1 seeds in the Sweet 16 last year and three in the Elite Eight. None made it to the Final Four. Of course last year was filled with crazy upsets and the theme of this year's tourney is the dominant teams have advanced. But we'll see this weekend.
Picks coming tomorrow as I said. Have a good night.
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 45-12
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Recapping some games
While I wait for the next set of games to start I'll write about the first two.
Kansas-Southern Illinois: About the defensive slugfest I expected. I was disappointed with Kansas even though they advanced. They looked confused and turned it over a lot against the Salukis. They still won but if their next game is going to be another defensive battle and if they play as they did tonight, UCLA or Pittsburgh will beat them.
Memphis-Texas A&M: Didn't get a chance to watch the whole game, but it was as tight a game as I thought it would be. Memphis was able to pull out the win though even though I picked the Aggies. The biggest talk will probably be the call at the end taking 1.1 seconds away from the Aggies off an pass in bounds. I agreed with the call though. What the announcers didn't point out was that the ball was deflected by Memphis and then bounced in-bounds and then landed out of bounds. The announcers thought that 0.2 seconds would be taken off and I thought that would be unfair to Memphis. So far the only commentator I've heard agree with me is Greg Gumbel. I don't know if it should have been down all the way to 2 seconds. But I think it's pretty clear that more than 0.2 seconds should have been taken off the clock as it was. Still a close game and the Aggies have nothing to be ashamed of having a wonderful season. Memphis stays around to haunt my List of Eight.
Kansas-Southern Illinois: About the defensive slugfest I expected. I was disappointed with Kansas even though they advanced. They looked confused and turned it over a lot against the Salukis. They still won but if their next game is going to be another defensive battle and if they play as they did tonight, UCLA or Pittsburgh will beat them.
Memphis-Texas A&M: Didn't get a chance to watch the whole game, but it was as tight a game as I thought it would be. Memphis was able to pull out the win though even though I picked the Aggies. The biggest talk will probably be the call at the end taking 1.1 seconds away from the Aggies off an pass in bounds. I agreed with the call though. What the announcers didn't point out was that the ball was deflected by Memphis and then bounced in-bounds and then landed out of bounds. The announcers thought that 0.2 seconds would be taken off and I thought that would be unfair to Memphis. So far the only commentator I've heard agree with me is Greg Gumbel. I don't know if it should have been down all the way to 2 seconds. But I think it's pretty clear that more than 0.2 seconds should have been taken off the clock as it was. Still a close game and the Aggies have nothing to be ashamed of having a wonderful season. Memphis stays around to haunt my List of Eight.
More on John Edwards
Turns out I was completely wrong. Even though Elizabeth Edwards' cancer has returned, John's campaign will continue. Fortunately, the news on Elizabeth doesn't seem to be as bad as predicted so that's a good sign. Unfortunately, I still have to deal with John Edwards running for President. Damn.
I'm heartless I know.
I'm heartless I know.
Latest news on the Presidential Race
I was about to go to bed when I saw this interesting article.
Apparently John Edwards is having a special press conference tomorrow to discuss his wife's health. She had a doctor's visit Wednesday. This seems very unusual. If you're not aware, his wife has suffered from cancer since I believe 2004. They had a routine doctor's appointment today. I find it difficult to believe that good news was disclosed since Edwards has canceled one of his campaign stops and has called a mysterious press conference to discuss his wife's health. I don't think he's going to make a proclamation that she's cancer-free. Looking at the futures markets, my beliefs seem to be justified. John Edwards' chances of receiving the nomination have plunged today. What am I getting at? It seems that Mr. Edwards is either putting the campaign on hiatus or withdrawing all together. That would seem the logical guess. I hope I'm wrong. Everyone knows I'm no fan of Edwards. But my theory is predicated on the belief that Elizabeth has had a relapse of her illness and I certainly don't wish that upon anyone. If Edwards does withdraw tomorrow, it would truly be a shame to have to on such a reason as an illness returning to your wife. Of course, it's looking more and more that the Democratic nomination was between Clinton and Obama. I'm just not sure Edwards was going to be a serious contender. If Gore ever decides to jump in, Edwards might have slipped all the way to fourth. If he does withdraw, assuming Gore remains on the sidelines this probably helps Bill Richardson the most as he moves to a clear third in the Democratic pecking order. However, I'll try to avoid any more speculation as I've already went across several limbs before any announcement on Edwards has made. I just would like to say that whatever differences John Edwards and I have, I hope that his wife has a speedy recovery from any illness she may have and I hope everything turns out the best for him and his family.
Apparently John Edwards is having a special press conference tomorrow to discuss his wife's health. She had a doctor's visit Wednesday. This seems very unusual. If you're not aware, his wife has suffered from cancer since I believe 2004. They had a routine doctor's appointment today. I find it difficult to believe that good news was disclosed since Edwards has canceled one of his campaign stops and has called a mysterious press conference to discuss his wife's health. I don't think he's going to make a proclamation that she's cancer-free. Looking at the futures markets, my beliefs seem to be justified. John Edwards' chances of receiving the nomination have plunged today. What am I getting at? It seems that Mr. Edwards is either putting the campaign on hiatus or withdrawing all together. That would seem the logical guess. I hope I'm wrong. Everyone knows I'm no fan of Edwards. But my theory is predicated on the belief that Elizabeth has had a relapse of her illness and I certainly don't wish that upon anyone. If Edwards does withdraw tomorrow, it would truly be a shame to have to on such a reason as an illness returning to your wife. Of course, it's looking more and more that the Democratic nomination was between Clinton and Obama. I'm just not sure Edwards was going to be a serious contender. If Gore ever decides to jump in, Edwards might have slipped all the way to fourth. If he does withdraw, assuming Gore remains on the sidelines this probably helps Bill Richardson the most as he moves to a clear third in the Democratic pecking order. However, I'll try to avoid any more speculation as I've already went across several limbs before any announcement on Edwards has made. I just would like to say that whatever differences John Edwards and I have, I hope that his wife has a speedy recovery from any illness she may have and I hope everything turns out the best for him and his family.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
What's new
It seems a little quiet in the breaks between the second round and the Sweet 16. Less than 48 hours from more basketball so I have to do other things.
I went to my mandolin lesson today. I think I'm improving quite a bit. I can play somewhat complicated songs (such as Intervention off the new Arcade Fire album). It's not a typical three chord song but it's fairly easy to play once you practice it a couple dozen times.
Speaking of the Arcade Fire, I bought their new album recently. I'll try to have a full review of it tomorrow or Thursday. Don't feel like writing it right now.
One of the executive partners from the William & Mary MBA program is calling me tomorrow. I think he was a former VP at IBM. I think it's just a call to see if I have any questions about the Executive Partner program. I'll have to think of some questions to ask because I've already heard quite a bit about it. I'm not sure if he's my official advisor in the program or if he's just the one who's contacting me. We'll find out tomorrow I guess.
I had a headache yesterday and went to bed at 7 and didn't wake up again till 11. That was a mistake. I didn't go back to bed until 6. In the morning. Not fun. Kind of boring.
Another Bush scandal. This time over fired attorneys. I haven't been following it that much (due to basketball) but it seems pretty confusing to me. I like to think I can understand these things but it's kind of his right to fire attorneys at any time. Whether it was for partisan purposes would make a difference of course. It seems to be blowing up into a major scandal. It's funny how the most minor things seem to turn into the biggest boondoggles. I wonder if Attorney General Gonzales can survive this. Of course Rumsfeld made it all the way to post Election Day 2006, so I may underestimate Bush's loyalty to his failures in the Cabinet.
My stocks have done pretty well as of late. I'm less than 3% from my all time high. After all the volatility in the market that's pretty good. And I'm still doing that CNBC game. I'm sort of lagging and biding my time because I don't know what stock to buy. I'm just building up money with the quiz questions and I'll have to hope I get hot one week so I can get in the Final Competition. Still a lot of time to go.
Some guy associated with the Russ Feingold for President site (which I joined about three days before he withdrew) asked if I wanted to join a new blog and write about progressive issues. I told him tentatively yes, but I may have to pull out. The modern day usage of "progressive" seems to generally mean "liberal" and I'm not really what you'd call a modern liberal. I guess socially I am, so I could write about things of that nature. But my economic beliefs are more conservative. Of course they're also "liberal" in the old sense of the word. But nobody even knows what the hell liberal and conservative mean anymore so there you go. People just fling them as insults without understanding the proper usage.
Hibriten is playing at contest tomorrow. I may go. I haven't seen them play in awhile. And I don't know anyone involved anymore (even the director retired). But...I don't really have anything else to do. So there you go.
That's all I got for now.
I went to my mandolin lesson today. I think I'm improving quite a bit. I can play somewhat complicated songs (such as Intervention off the new Arcade Fire album). It's not a typical three chord song but it's fairly easy to play once you practice it a couple dozen times.
Speaking of the Arcade Fire, I bought their new album recently. I'll try to have a full review of it tomorrow or Thursday. Don't feel like writing it right now.
One of the executive partners from the William & Mary MBA program is calling me tomorrow. I think he was a former VP at IBM. I think it's just a call to see if I have any questions about the Executive Partner program. I'll have to think of some questions to ask because I've already heard quite a bit about it. I'm not sure if he's my official advisor in the program or if he's just the one who's contacting me. We'll find out tomorrow I guess.
I had a headache yesterday and went to bed at 7 and didn't wake up again till 11. That was a mistake. I didn't go back to bed until 6. In the morning. Not fun. Kind of boring.
Another Bush scandal. This time over fired attorneys. I haven't been following it that much (due to basketball) but it seems pretty confusing to me. I like to think I can understand these things but it's kind of his right to fire attorneys at any time. Whether it was for partisan purposes would make a difference of course. It seems to be blowing up into a major scandal. It's funny how the most minor things seem to turn into the biggest boondoggles. I wonder if Attorney General Gonzales can survive this. Of course Rumsfeld made it all the way to post Election Day 2006, so I may underestimate Bush's loyalty to his failures in the Cabinet.
My stocks have done pretty well as of late. I'm less than 3% from my all time high. After all the volatility in the market that's pretty good. And I'm still doing that CNBC game. I'm sort of lagging and biding my time because I don't know what stock to buy. I'm just building up money with the quiz questions and I'll have to hope I get hot one week so I can get in the Final Competition. Still a lot of time to go.
Some guy associated with the Russ Feingold for President site (which I joined about three days before he withdrew) asked if I wanted to join a new blog and write about progressive issues. I told him tentatively yes, but I may have to pull out. The modern day usage of "progressive" seems to generally mean "liberal" and I'm not really what you'd call a modern liberal. I guess socially I am, so I could write about things of that nature. But my economic beliefs are more conservative. Of course they're also "liberal" in the old sense of the word. But nobody even knows what the hell liberal and conservative mean anymore so there you go. People just fling them as insults without understanding the proper usage.
Hibriten is playing at contest tomorrow. I may go. I haven't seen them play in awhile. And I don't know anyone involved anymore (even the director retired). But...I don't really have anything else to do. So there you go.
That's all I got for now.
Monday, March 19, 2007
Sweet 16 Predictions
#1 Kansas-#4 Southern Illinois: Kansas has looked to be the most impressive #1 seed so far. Destroying a better than #16 seed Niagara and whipping a decent Kentucky team will give you respect. But don't overlook the Southern Illinois Salukis. They've shown their #4 seed was not a gift beating Holy Cross and Virginia Tech by double digits. This is a bad matchup for them though against one of the most talented teams in the country. I'd love to see them advance but this is probably one of the biggest mismatches in the Sweet 16. Not that the Salukis can't win. Of course they can. If they can keep the Jayhawks from running and force the young team to be impatient. I just think this Jayhawks team is special. Rock Chalk Jayhawk! Kansas 68 Southern Illinois 59
#2 Memphis-#3 Texas A&M: This looks to be the best game of the Sweet 16 to me. It's my Aggies who I've raved about all year against a Memphis team that could be better than last year. I've seen Memphis twice so far and they've been able to pull out wins against North Texas and Nevada. But now the level of competition goes up a notch. I think it will be their downfall. Memphis hasn't had a serious challenge since 2006. I've watched them play and they've developed bad habits. Not that they'll get blown out. Certainly not. They've got the talent and the coach to keep winning. But Law pushed A&M past Louisville with some key free throws. Expect him to will Texas A&M to yet another victory. Texas A&M 69 Memphis 67
#2 UCLA-#3 Pittsburgh: Just like Ohio State-Xavier, it's the coach against his former team as UCLA's Ben Howland takes on Pittsburgh. Expect a defensive slugfest and a very ugly game. But UCLA has perfected Pittsburgh's style and has the better players so I think the Bruins advance. UCLA 67 Pittsburgh 64
#1 Ohio State-#5 Tennessee: The Buckeyes played poorly and nearly allowed Xavier to pull of the upset. But they're still around. The Volunteers have put on perhaps the best offensive performance this tourney but I'd expect them to not fly so high against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is going to slow it down and Tennessee won't like that style. They will keep pushing but Ohio Sttae will make them pay by forcing tough shots and turnovers. However if Ohio State doesn't come out ready to play, Tennessee can make them pay by gunning threes even worse than Xavier did. I just think that was Ohio State's wakeup call and with several days to prepare they should solve Tennessee. Ohio State 77 Tennessee 69
#1 Florida-#5 Butler: Butler looked very polished against Butler showing that they're not going to let top tier teams beat them without a fight. But the defending champs are a little better than Maryland. Butler has been able to keep the game slow so far. But I don't know if they can against the Gators. And Butler is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country which won't help their odds. If they can force the game into the 60s or below they have a chance. I just think Florida is prepared for this style (they beat Georgetown last year in the tourney) so they'll be able to push the score where Butler just can't reach. Florida 72 Butler 64
#2 Georgetown-#6 Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt is extremely dangerous from the three point line. That wasn't really the deciding factor against GW but against Wazzu in double OT it certainly helped. Georgetown is very good at defending the three though. While Vandy could normally cut to the inside when they defend the perimeter, the Hoyas have the big men to stop that from happening too often. Vanderbilt's weapons will be taken away and they'll be worn out from defending Georgetown to the end of the shot clock. Hoyas advance. Georgetown 74 Vanderbilt 66
#3 Oregon-#7 UNLV: Interesting matchup. I think it will be pretty fast paced. Oregon seems to have a very efficient offense and better talent so I'm going to pick Oregon to advance. I'll admit that I'm pretty ignorant about these two teams though so I could be totally off. Oregon 73 UNLV 70
#1 North Carolina-#5 USC: USC has been impressive so far easily beating Arkansas and Texas. And I had them going out in the first round (like UNLV). Whoops! Still, they're a year away from true contention and North Carolina is a nightmare matchup. USC is weak at rebounding. UNC is 2nd in rebounding in the nation. USC is weakest against a team that pressures you on both ends of the court. North Carolina is the prototype example of this type of team. The Trojans have played well so far but they'll be completely outgunned against the Heels. North Carolina 79 USC 68
#2 Memphis-#3 Texas A&M: This looks to be the best game of the Sweet 16 to me. It's my Aggies who I've raved about all year against a Memphis team that could be better than last year. I've seen Memphis twice so far and they've been able to pull out wins against North Texas and Nevada. But now the level of competition goes up a notch. I think it will be their downfall. Memphis hasn't had a serious challenge since 2006. I've watched them play and they've developed bad habits. Not that they'll get blown out. Certainly not. They've got the talent and the coach to keep winning. But Law pushed A&M past Louisville with some key free throws. Expect him to will Texas A&M to yet another victory. Texas A&M 69 Memphis 67
#2 UCLA-#3 Pittsburgh: Just like Ohio State-Xavier, it's the coach against his former team as UCLA's Ben Howland takes on Pittsburgh. Expect a defensive slugfest and a very ugly game. But UCLA has perfected Pittsburgh's style and has the better players so I think the Bruins advance. UCLA 67 Pittsburgh 64
#1 Ohio State-#5 Tennessee: The Buckeyes played poorly and nearly allowed Xavier to pull of the upset. But they're still around. The Volunteers have put on perhaps the best offensive performance this tourney but I'd expect them to not fly so high against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is going to slow it down and Tennessee won't like that style. They will keep pushing but Ohio Sttae will make them pay by forcing tough shots and turnovers. However if Ohio State doesn't come out ready to play, Tennessee can make them pay by gunning threes even worse than Xavier did. I just think that was Ohio State's wakeup call and with several days to prepare they should solve Tennessee. Ohio State 77 Tennessee 69
#1 Florida-#5 Butler: Butler looked very polished against Butler showing that they're not going to let top tier teams beat them without a fight. But the defending champs are a little better than Maryland. Butler has been able to keep the game slow so far. But I don't know if they can against the Gators. And Butler is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country which won't help their odds. If they can force the game into the 60s or below they have a chance. I just think Florida is prepared for this style (they beat Georgetown last year in the tourney) so they'll be able to push the score where Butler just can't reach. Florida 72 Butler 64
#2 Georgetown-#6 Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt is extremely dangerous from the three point line. That wasn't really the deciding factor against GW but against Wazzu in double OT it certainly helped. Georgetown is very good at defending the three though. While Vandy could normally cut to the inside when they defend the perimeter, the Hoyas have the big men to stop that from happening too often. Vanderbilt's weapons will be taken away and they'll be worn out from defending Georgetown to the end of the shot clock. Hoyas advance. Georgetown 74 Vanderbilt 66
#3 Oregon-#7 UNLV: Interesting matchup. I think it will be pretty fast paced. Oregon seems to have a very efficient offense and better talent so I'm going to pick Oregon to advance. I'll admit that I'm pretty ignorant about these two teams though so I could be totally off. Oregon 73 UNLV 70
#1 North Carolina-#5 USC: USC has been impressive so far easily beating Arkansas and Texas. And I had them going out in the first round (like UNLV). Whoops! Still, they're a year away from true contention and North Carolina is a nightmare matchup. USC is weak at rebounding. UNC is 2nd in rebounding in the nation. USC is weakest against a team that pressures you on both ends of the court. North Carolina is the prototype example of this type of team. The Trojans have played well so far but they'll be completely outgunned against the Heels. North Carolina 79 USC 68
More Tournament Nonsense
But first...I watched Casino Royale this weekend. It's the best Bond movie in quite a while. Daniel Craig makes a very good 007. He's a little bit more mean-spirited than some of the previous incarnations as well. The movie was a tad too long (it went an hour before the main plot even started) but overall it was good times.
I did a ranking of the 16 teams remaining. That was based solely on my feelings of their "quality". But what about chances to win the national title? Surely that is different as some teams draws may be easier? Well it is. I did some calculations using Ken Pomeroy's ratings this weekend and thought I'd post them. He's already posted odds on his web site, but his numbers are very slightly different than mine. I think the biggest difference was 0.05%. So I'll rank based on my percentages. The ranking would be the same whether I used his numbers or mine. Just slightly different numbers.
1. Kansas: 22.68%
2. North Carolina: 22.24%
3. Florida: 16.95%
4. Ohio State: 9.59%
5. Georgetown 9.00%
6. Texas A&M: 6.81%
7. UCLA: 5.55%
8. Memphis 2.64%
9. Pittsburgh: 1.37%
10. Oregon: 1.24%
11. Butler 0.61%
12. Southern Illinois: 0.32%
13. USC: 0.30%
14. UNLV: 0.28%
15. Tennessee: 0.26% (sorry Ashley)
16. Vanderbilt: 0.18%
If you think these numbers are accurate, then it is looking good for my List of Eight. At the start of the tournament, I calculated that the national champion would come from my list was around 86.69%. Even without Wisconsin, the odds are up to 92.82%. It looks as if the only three possible candidates to put the list in danger are Memphis and Pittsburgh (which I expected before the tournament) and Oregon which seems to be getting the break in every matchup.
I ranked UNLV as the weakest team (which may be unfair but whatever). So how are they in front of Tennessee and Vanderbilt? Tennessee has to play #1 Ohio State. Vanderbilt has to play #2 Georgetown. UNLV gets to play a weak #3 seed Oregon. That's just the way things work.
What's interesting is the shuffling of the #1 seeds. I picked UNC to win it all because I thought they had the best chance of winning it. But Kansas has actually overtaken them in the odds. I'm guessing this is based on Kansas looking more impressive so far. But it also has something to do with potential Final Four matches. Kansas's potential foes are Florida, Oregon, Butler, and UNLV. North Carolina's are Texas A&M, Tennessee, Memphis, and Texas A&M. Since the best teams in the South have kept winning and the Midwest powers like Maryland, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Georgia Tech are out, Kansas's road has improved quite a bit more than Carolina's.
Also before the tournament, I thought Florida had the least likely chance of winning it all of the #1 seeds. Now with all the teams losing in their bracket, they've moved ahead of Ohio State and now have the best odds of any team to reach the Final Four. Once again this is because the "weaker" teams in their bracket keep winning. In Ohio State's bracket the teams I expected to be in the Sweet 16 are there. Also, Ohio State's near loss to Xavier didn't help their rating.
To close, these numbers are fun and somewhat helpful. But they aren't gospel. They only factor in past performance. They don't take into account intangibles such as emotion, injuries, momentum, etc. So sometimes their predictive abilities are weak. Of course I used them to fill out my bracket and I still have seven of eight Elite Eight teams left and all my Final Four teams. Of course I shouldn't speak too soon. I did the same last year, had all my Final Four teams left in the Elite Eight and lost all of them. So let's not count chickens before they've hatched.
I did a ranking of the 16 teams remaining. That was based solely on my feelings of their "quality". But what about chances to win the national title? Surely that is different as some teams draws may be easier? Well it is. I did some calculations using Ken Pomeroy's ratings this weekend and thought I'd post them. He's already posted odds on his web site, but his numbers are very slightly different than mine. I think the biggest difference was 0.05%. So I'll rank based on my percentages. The ranking would be the same whether I used his numbers or mine. Just slightly different numbers.
1. Kansas: 22.68%
2. North Carolina: 22.24%
3. Florida: 16.95%
4. Ohio State: 9.59%
5. Georgetown 9.00%
6. Texas A&M: 6.81%
7. UCLA: 5.55%
8. Memphis 2.64%
9. Pittsburgh: 1.37%
10. Oregon: 1.24%
11. Butler 0.61%
12. Southern Illinois: 0.32%
13. USC: 0.30%
14. UNLV: 0.28%
15. Tennessee: 0.26% (sorry Ashley)
16. Vanderbilt: 0.18%
If you think these numbers are accurate, then it is looking good for my List of Eight. At the start of the tournament, I calculated that the national champion would come from my list was around 86.69%. Even without Wisconsin, the odds are up to 92.82%. It looks as if the only three possible candidates to put the list in danger are Memphis and Pittsburgh (which I expected before the tournament) and Oregon which seems to be getting the break in every matchup.
I ranked UNLV as the weakest team (which may be unfair but whatever). So how are they in front of Tennessee and Vanderbilt? Tennessee has to play #1 Ohio State. Vanderbilt has to play #2 Georgetown. UNLV gets to play a weak #3 seed Oregon. That's just the way things work.
What's interesting is the shuffling of the #1 seeds. I picked UNC to win it all because I thought they had the best chance of winning it. But Kansas has actually overtaken them in the odds. I'm guessing this is based on Kansas looking more impressive so far. But it also has something to do with potential Final Four matches. Kansas's potential foes are Florida, Oregon, Butler, and UNLV. North Carolina's are Texas A&M, Tennessee, Memphis, and Texas A&M. Since the best teams in the South have kept winning and the Midwest powers like Maryland, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Georgia Tech are out, Kansas's road has improved quite a bit more than Carolina's.
Also before the tournament, I thought Florida had the least likely chance of winning it all of the #1 seeds. Now with all the teams losing in their bracket, they've moved ahead of Ohio State and now have the best odds of any team to reach the Final Four. Once again this is because the "weaker" teams in their bracket keep winning. In Ohio State's bracket the teams I expected to be in the Sweet 16 are there. Also, Ohio State's near loss to Xavier didn't help their rating.
To close, these numbers are fun and somewhat helpful. But they aren't gospel. They only factor in past performance. They don't take into account intangibles such as emotion, injuries, momentum, etc. So sometimes their predictive abilities are weak. Of course I used them to fill out my bracket and I still have seven of eight Elite Eight teams left and all my Final Four teams. Of course I shouldn't speak too soon. I did the same last year, had all my Final Four teams left in the Elite Eight and lost all of them. So let's not count chickens before they've hatched.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
List of Eight Update
The first two rounds of the tournament are finished so let's check the status of my List of Eight. Just so you know this is the strongest remaining field of 16 I've ever seen. Truly, anybody can beat anybody else.
Florida: Beat Jackson State 112-69. Beat Purdue 74-67: So far the defending champs are off to a great start. A few minor struggles so far but it's clear that they're not going down without a fight. Up next is Butler which they should outmatch. But beware. They're very well coached and could easily spring an upset.
Georgetown: Beat Belmont 80-55. Beat Boston College 62-55: Solid start for the Hoyas. BC was able to shut down their offense for awhile but their defense has been stellar thus far. Up next is Vanderbilt who has been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament. I like Georgetown but if Vandy keeps playing like they have been, they could keep winning.
Kansas: Beat Niagara 107-67. Beat Kentucky 88-76: Have looked completely dominant. I am really liking their chances. Southern Illinois will try to grind it but I think Kansas's talent will overwhelm them.
North Carolina: Beat Eastern Kentucky 88-65. Beat Michigan State 81-67. Sometimes their focus slips, but they've been able to put away teams fairly easily so far. USC should be an interesting challenge. Especially for a team that I had out in the first round.
Ohio State: Beat Central Connecticut State 78-57. Beat Xavier 78-71: Nearly let their title dream slip away against Xavier. But the name of the game is Survive and Advance. A very hot Tennessee awaits. Ohio State should be able to keep Tennessee grounded though as they will play much slower than the Vols like.
Texas A&M: Beat Pennsylvania 68-52. Beat Louisville 72-69: Escaped basically a road game against Louisville. Will probably have the toughest game next round of any remaining member of my list. Memphis is extremely athletic and could cause some problems.
UCLA: Beat Weber State 70-42. Beat Indiana 54-49: UCLA and Indiana nearly set basketball back 50 years with their brickfest. And they nearly let the Hoosiers come back and win. They can't afford to play that poorly against a very good looking Pittsburgh.
Wisconsin: Beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 76-63. Lost to UNLV 74-68: My only list member to lose so far. Looked weak in both games and was lucky just to beat Corpus Christi. Clearly I underrated the loss of Butch including them. It would have been wiser to put Memphis or Pittsburgh on my list.
So far, I'm doing pretty well. Seven of my eight remain and most of the teams I was worried about crashing my list are gone. Still, the challenge isn't over yet so let's check the remaining nine real quick.
Butler: Have looked very good so far. If they can get past Florida, I think a Final Four bid is very possible. But I wouldn't expect a title.
Oregon: Looked very good against Winthrop. I don't know how good they are though as they will still only play UNLV next round. I like them to get to the Elite Eight and possibly the Final Four. But my guess is at that point they'll be outmatched.
UNLV: The biggest surprise to me in the Sweet 16. They have 30 wins though so they're pretty good. Still in this field, they look to be the weakest team left. I think one more win would be generous.
Southern Illinois: Definitely have proved their #4 seed was deserved. I just don't think they match up well with Kansas though. And even if they win, they'd have to play Pitt or UCLA. A Final Four bid is too much to ask.
Pittsburgh: One of the two legitimate teams who could ruin my streak. They aren't the favorite but are perfectly capable of beating UCLA and Kansas or any other team in the country. I'll keep my eye on the Panthers.
USC: Totally took apart Arkansas and Texas. But now a date with the North Carolina Tar Heels awaits. I think their luck runs out with that matchup.
Vanderbilt: Looking good so far. I think Georgetown should take them out though.
Tennessee: They seem to be rolling. But the competition moves up a notch with Ohio State. An upset is possible. But in a bracket with Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Memphis...a Final Four bid is wishful thinking.
Memphis: Haven't looked dominant yet. But they're perfectly capable of crashing my bracket. With luck they could get all the way to the title game. I think Texas A&M will beat them but this is the team I'm most worried about.
Florida: Beat Jackson State 112-69. Beat Purdue 74-67: So far the defending champs are off to a great start. A few minor struggles so far but it's clear that they're not going down without a fight. Up next is Butler which they should outmatch. But beware. They're very well coached and could easily spring an upset.
Georgetown: Beat Belmont 80-55. Beat Boston College 62-55: Solid start for the Hoyas. BC was able to shut down their offense for awhile but their defense has been stellar thus far. Up next is Vanderbilt who has been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament. I like Georgetown but if Vandy keeps playing like they have been, they could keep winning.
Kansas: Beat Niagara 107-67. Beat Kentucky 88-76: Have looked completely dominant. I am really liking their chances. Southern Illinois will try to grind it but I think Kansas's talent will overwhelm them.
North Carolina: Beat Eastern Kentucky 88-65. Beat Michigan State 81-67. Sometimes their focus slips, but they've been able to put away teams fairly easily so far. USC should be an interesting challenge. Especially for a team that I had out in the first round.
Ohio State: Beat Central Connecticut State 78-57. Beat Xavier 78-71: Nearly let their title dream slip away against Xavier. But the name of the game is Survive and Advance. A very hot Tennessee awaits. Ohio State should be able to keep Tennessee grounded though as they will play much slower than the Vols like.
Texas A&M: Beat Pennsylvania 68-52. Beat Louisville 72-69: Escaped basically a road game against Louisville. Will probably have the toughest game next round of any remaining member of my list. Memphis is extremely athletic and could cause some problems.
UCLA: Beat Weber State 70-42. Beat Indiana 54-49: UCLA and Indiana nearly set basketball back 50 years with their brickfest. And they nearly let the Hoosiers come back and win. They can't afford to play that poorly against a very good looking Pittsburgh.
Wisconsin: Beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 76-63. Lost to UNLV 74-68: My only list member to lose so far. Looked weak in both games and was lucky just to beat Corpus Christi. Clearly I underrated the loss of Butch including them. It would have been wiser to put Memphis or Pittsburgh on my list.
So far, I'm doing pretty well. Seven of my eight remain and most of the teams I was worried about crashing my list are gone. Still, the challenge isn't over yet so let's check the remaining nine real quick.
Butler: Have looked very good so far. If they can get past Florida, I think a Final Four bid is very possible. But I wouldn't expect a title.
Oregon: Looked very good against Winthrop. I don't know how good they are though as they will still only play UNLV next round. I like them to get to the Elite Eight and possibly the Final Four. But my guess is at that point they'll be outmatched.
UNLV: The biggest surprise to me in the Sweet 16. They have 30 wins though so they're pretty good. Still in this field, they look to be the weakest team left. I think one more win would be generous.
Southern Illinois: Definitely have proved their #4 seed was deserved. I just don't think they match up well with Kansas though. And even if they win, they'd have to play Pitt or UCLA. A Final Four bid is too much to ask.
Pittsburgh: One of the two legitimate teams who could ruin my streak. They aren't the favorite but are perfectly capable of beating UCLA and Kansas or any other team in the country. I'll keep my eye on the Panthers.
USC: Totally took apart Arkansas and Texas. But now a date with the North Carolina Tar Heels awaits. I think their luck runs out with that matchup.
Vanderbilt: Looking good so far. I think Georgetown should take them out though.
Tennessee: They seem to be rolling. But the competition moves up a notch with Ohio State. An upset is possible. But in a bracket with Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Memphis...a Final Four bid is wishful thinking.
Memphis: Haven't looked dominant yet. But they're perfectly capable of crashing my bracket. With luck they could get all the way to the title game. I think Texas A&M will beat them but this is the team I'm most worried about.
Second Round Recap: Day Two
Best Performance: USC. I'm not shocked they beat Texas. I am surprised to see them win by 19 points. Just a total domination.
Biggest Surprise: How about UNLV beating Wisconsin? They're the most unlikely Sweet 16 entrant but as a #7 seed it's not unheard of. Must learn more about the Runnin' Rebels.
Moral Victory: Purdue playing with Florida most of the game. Virginia same with Tennessee. Winthrop trying to but running out of gas against Oregon.
Early Ranking of Sweet 16 Teams remaining:
1. North Carolina
2. Kansas
3. Florida
4. Ohio State
5. Georgetown
6. Texas A&M
7. UCLA
8. Memphis
9. Pittsburgh
10. Oregon
11. Butler
12. USC
13. Southern Illinois
14. Tennessee
15. Vanderbilt
16. UNLV
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 38-11
Biggest Surprise: How about UNLV beating Wisconsin? They're the most unlikely Sweet 16 entrant but as a #7 seed it's not unheard of. Must learn more about the Runnin' Rebels.
Moral Victory: Purdue playing with Florida most of the game. Virginia same with Tennessee. Winthrop trying to but running out of gas against Oregon.
Early Ranking of Sweet 16 Teams remaining:
1. North Carolina
2. Kansas
3. Florida
4. Ohio State
5. Georgetown
6. Texas A&M
7. UCLA
8. Memphis
9. Pittsburgh
10. Oregon
11. Butler
12. USC
13. Southern Illinois
14. Tennessee
15. Vanderbilt
16. UNLV
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 38-11
Second Round Recap: Day One
Best Game: Washington State-Vanderbilt. A double OT thriller on a day with three overtime games. Very evenly matched throughout as Vandy pulled off the mild #6 over #3 upset. Clearly Vandy is a team to be feared and Georgetown will have a battle on their hands in the second round.
Most Impressive Team: A tie between North Carolina and Butler. North Carolina played a very tough Michigan State team and was able to pour it on late for a 14 point win. Butler played nearly flawlessly against Maryland. If they keep playing like that, it's going to be damn hard to beat them.
Moral Victory: VCU cutting a 19 point deficit against Pitt to force overtime. Indiana playing incredibly ugly basketball until finally giving UCLA a game.
My ranking of the eight teams in the round of 16 so far from best to worst (not that any of these teams are bad at all): North Carolina, Ohio State, Georgetown, Texas A&M, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Butler, Vanderbilt.
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 33-8
Most Impressive Team: A tie between North Carolina and Butler. North Carolina played a very tough Michigan State team and was able to pour it on late for a 14 point win. Butler played nearly flawlessly against Maryland. If they keep playing like that, it's going to be damn hard to beat them.
Moral Victory: VCU cutting a 19 point deficit against Pitt to force overtime. Indiana playing incredibly ugly basketball until finally giving UCLA a game.
My ranking of the eight teams in the round of 16 so far from best to worst (not that any of these teams are bad at all): North Carolina, Ohio State, Georgetown, Texas A&M, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Butler, Vanderbilt.
Jeb's Tourney Picks: 33-8
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Round 2 Predictions: Sunday
#5 Tennessee-#4 Virginia: I thought these two were overseeded coming in but they both impressed in their first round game. I don't expect the margin of victory in this one that they each had in their first round game though. Expect an uptempo game with the Vols coming out on top due to more turnovers by Virginia. Tennessee 78 Virginia 76
#2 Memphis-#7 Nevada: Memphis struggled for awhile to put away North Texas while Nevada emerged victorious in the first overtime game of the tourney against Creighton. And Fazekas was on the bench fouled out. Pretty impressive. Nevada has always baffled me. When I pick them to win they lose. When I pick them to lose they win. So take this prediction with a grain of salt. I think Memphis's surplus of athletes should overwhelm the Pack in this game as they won't be able to stop the Tigers as often as Memphis can stop them. Memphis 78 Nevada 69
#2 Wisconsin-#7 UNLV: Wisconsin nearly laid an egg against Texas A&M Corpus Christi while UNLV made Ga Tech look bad the entire game. Wisconsin cannot afford to play that poorly against a solid Runnin' Rebels squad. I think the Badgers will be ready to play this time. UNLV doesn't do well against teams that protect the ball and Wisconsin is one of the best. Badgers to the Sweet 16. Wisconsin 70 UNLV 62
#4 Southern Illinois-#5 Virginia Tech: Both teams had pretty impressive wins with Southern Illinois beating Holy Cross and Va Tech ruining one of my upset specials by coming from 12 down to beat Illinois. This looks like the toughest second round game to pick. I picked the Salukis in my bracket to the next round. But I believe the Hokies will win. Virginia Tech easily could have folded being down double digits to a #12 seed Illini. With the way they've payed this year I expected them to. But they didn't. They showed a great deal of resolve in pulling out the win. I think they'll bring their A game for this second round matchup in what should be a grinding defensive struggle. Virginia Tech 63 Southern Illinois 62
#3 Oregon-#11 Winthrop: Winthrop dominated Notre Dame throughout which ruined one of my Sweet 16 picks. Oregon nearly walked into one of the biggest upsets of the tourney beating Miami (Ohio) by 2. The Ducks must be more focused against a very dangerous Winthrop. Will Winthrop suffer a let-down or be outgunned by Oregon's speedy offense? Could be. But I think Oregon is a weaker team than Notre Dame so don't be shocked if Winthrop can make the Sweet 16. The free throw percentage concerns me though. They shot around 50% and if Notre Dame hadn't shot around 30%, Winthrop might have lost that first round game. Oregon shot the same percentage that Notre Dame did, around 75%. I don't expect two bad free throw performances by two quality shooting teams against Winthrop. Oregon puts it away at the line. Oregon 73 Winthrop 67
#1 Florida-#9 Purdue: For awhile, it looked as if the first #16 seed upset could happen as Jackson State was down by 6 at halftime. Than Florida scored 71 points in the second half to drown that dream. The Gators are ready to defend their title. They'll be lucky to score 71 points for the game against the tough defense of an underrated Purdue. Still, the Gators outmatch Purdue and if they play smart and don't get frustrated when they don't blow Purdue out of the gym, then they should advance. Florida 72 Purdue 65
#1 Kansas-#8 Kentucky: You normally don't see first round games between the #1 and #3 winningest programs of all time. So this could be a memorable one. Still, this isn't the strongest Kentucky team of all time. Kansas has superior talent and should outlast the Wildcats by the end. Kansas 73 Kentucky 66
#4 Texas-#5 USC: USC ruined another of my upset picks by thrashing Arkansas all over the court. Looks like they didn't let the Oregon blowout rattle them too much. Texas allowed New Mexico State to stay around longer then anticipated. I think USC has a bad matchup in this game. They're weak against good rebounding teams. Texas is one of the ten best in the country. Also, Durant is a bad matchup for any team. He got off to a slow start but finished with 27 in the first round game. I expect that was just nervousness for his first game. The scary thing is that could be his lowest point total in this tournament. Hook 'em Horns! Texas 75 USC 72
Jeb's Game Predictions: 27-6
#2 Memphis-#7 Nevada: Memphis struggled for awhile to put away North Texas while Nevada emerged victorious in the first overtime game of the tourney against Creighton. And Fazekas was on the bench fouled out. Pretty impressive. Nevada has always baffled me. When I pick them to win they lose. When I pick them to lose they win. So take this prediction with a grain of salt. I think Memphis's surplus of athletes should overwhelm the Pack in this game as they won't be able to stop the Tigers as often as Memphis can stop them. Memphis 78 Nevada 69
#2 Wisconsin-#7 UNLV: Wisconsin nearly laid an egg against Texas A&M Corpus Christi while UNLV made Ga Tech look bad the entire game. Wisconsin cannot afford to play that poorly against a solid Runnin' Rebels squad. I think the Badgers will be ready to play this time. UNLV doesn't do well against teams that protect the ball and Wisconsin is one of the best. Badgers to the Sweet 16. Wisconsin 70 UNLV 62
#4 Southern Illinois-#5 Virginia Tech: Both teams had pretty impressive wins with Southern Illinois beating Holy Cross and Va Tech ruining one of my upset specials by coming from 12 down to beat Illinois. This looks like the toughest second round game to pick. I picked the Salukis in my bracket to the next round. But I believe the Hokies will win. Virginia Tech easily could have folded being down double digits to a #12 seed Illini. With the way they've payed this year I expected them to. But they didn't. They showed a great deal of resolve in pulling out the win. I think they'll bring their A game for this second round matchup in what should be a grinding defensive struggle. Virginia Tech 63 Southern Illinois 62
#3 Oregon-#11 Winthrop: Winthrop dominated Notre Dame throughout which ruined one of my Sweet 16 picks. Oregon nearly walked into one of the biggest upsets of the tourney beating Miami (Ohio) by 2. The Ducks must be more focused against a very dangerous Winthrop. Will Winthrop suffer a let-down or be outgunned by Oregon's speedy offense? Could be. But I think Oregon is a weaker team than Notre Dame so don't be shocked if Winthrop can make the Sweet 16. The free throw percentage concerns me though. They shot around 50% and if Notre Dame hadn't shot around 30%, Winthrop might have lost that first round game. Oregon shot the same percentage that Notre Dame did, around 75%. I don't expect two bad free throw performances by two quality shooting teams against Winthrop. Oregon puts it away at the line. Oregon 73 Winthrop 67
#1 Florida-#9 Purdue: For awhile, it looked as if the first #16 seed upset could happen as Jackson State was down by 6 at halftime. Than Florida scored 71 points in the second half to drown that dream. The Gators are ready to defend their title. They'll be lucky to score 71 points for the game against the tough defense of an underrated Purdue. Still, the Gators outmatch Purdue and if they play smart and don't get frustrated when they don't blow Purdue out of the gym, then they should advance. Florida 72 Purdue 65
#1 Kansas-#8 Kentucky: You normally don't see first round games between the #1 and #3 winningest programs of all time. So this could be a memorable one. Still, this isn't the strongest Kentucky team of all time. Kansas has superior talent and should outlast the Wildcats by the end. Kansas 73 Kentucky 66
#4 Texas-#5 USC: USC ruined another of my upset picks by thrashing Arkansas all over the court. Looks like they didn't let the Oregon blowout rattle them too much. Texas allowed New Mexico State to stay around longer then anticipated. I think USC has a bad matchup in this game. They're weak against good rebounding teams. Texas is one of the ten best in the country. Also, Durant is a bad matchup for any team. He got off to a slow start but finished with 27 in the first round game. I expect that was just nervousness for his first game. The scary thing is that could be his lowest point total in this tournament. Hook 'em Horns! Texas 75 USC 72
Jeb's Game Predictions: 27-6
Friday, March 16, 2007
NCAA Second day recap
Most impressive: I'm going with a three way tie of Virginia, Tennessee, and USC. USC turned what I thought would be a tight game into a laugher. Virginia blitzed Albany from the tip. And Tennessee scored an astonishing 121 points on Long Beach State. The defense was lacking but hey a win is a win.
Biggest Upset: Probably once again that there were very few ones. Expect mass chaos in the second round. When there are more good teams, anything can happen. But I must give props to WInthrop as they got their first ever tourney win in a hard fought one against Notre Dame.
Biggest Disappointment: Notre Dame shooting about 30% from the stripe in the loss to Winthrop. ANd they were one of the 20 best in the country. Pathetic. Also Illinois blowing a 12 point lead to Virginia Tech.
Moral Victory: TAMCC dominating Wisconsin most of the game. Miami keeping up with Oregon. New Mexico State playing with Texas. Jackson State being down 6 at halftime to Florida.
First round is over. To me the three most impressive teams relative to what I thought would happen in their first game were Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Winthrop in that order. It'll be interesting to see if their outstanding play will translate into second round success.
Jeb's Tourney Record: 27-6 (including the play-in)
Biggest Upset: Probably once again that there were very few ones. Expect mass chaos in the second round. When there are more good teams, anything can happen. But I must give props to WInthrop as they got their first ever tourney win in a hard fought one against Notre Dame.
Biggest Disappointment: Notre Dame shooting about 30% from the stripe in the loss to Winthrop. ANd they were one of the 20 best in the country. Pathetic. Also Illinois blowing a 12 point lead to Virginia Tech.
Moral Victory: TAMCC dominating Wisconsin most of the game. Miami keeping up with Oregon. New Mexico State playing with Texas. Jackson State being down 6 at halftime to Florida.
First round is over. To me the three most impressive teams relative to what I thought would happen in their first game were Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Winthrop in that order. It'll be interesting to see if their outstanding play will translate into second round success.
Jeb's Tourney Record: 27-6 (including the play-in)
Round 2 Predictions: Saturday
I've started out pretty well with the predictions. If you count the play-in game, I'm 16-1 through the first full day of action. I'd be surprised if I keep doing that well though because the upsets have been few so far. I expect a couple of shockers for today's action. I just don't know where from. But while I have some free time, I'll make predictions for Saturday's games.
#1 Ohio State-#9 Xavier: The selection committe's humor strikes as Ohio State's Thad Matta will be coaching against his former team. Ohio State had a pretty easy time with Central Connecticut State while Xavier was a dogfight with BYU that probably ranks #2 for most exciting game thus far. I think Xavier could give OSU some trouble but Ohio State's size should dominate Xavier throughout the game. And I'm just not real confident in A-10 teams this year as it was a down year for the conference. Ohio State 77 Xavier 68
#4 Maryland-#5 Butler: Davidson gave Maryland some trouble, but in the last ten minutes, the superior athletes had worn down Davidson and Maryland ended up with the win. I think the same thing could happen here. Butler is a good team no doubt. But this just seems like a bad matchup because Butler wants to win games at a slow pace. Meanwhile Maryland likes to run. I like the Terps in this one. Maryland 70 Butler 66
#3 Texas A&M-#6 Louisville: After watching the first round I may have originally chosen the wrong team to advance. Louisville humiliated Stanford from the word go while the Aggies struggled against Penn until the final 13 minutes or so. I also didn't consider that the committee basically gave Louisville two home games in Lexington, KY and as a #6 seed that is inexcusable. But life is not fair. So who do I have? I'm going to stick with the Aggies although I'm not as confident as I was before. I expect this to be a very close game with a game winning shot by Acie Law in the final seconds. But I would not be surprised if the Cardinals advance. They are that good. Instant classic anyone? Texas A&M 67 Louisville 66
#3 Washington State-#6 Vanderbilt: Another game that I have doubts as to my original pick. It had nothing to do with Washington State as they dispatched Oral Roberts with some ease. But Vanderbilt beat George Washington by 33 points! Just an anomaly or is this Vandy team for real? I guess we'll find out tomorrow. I'm going to stick with Washington State as they were my original pick but this looks like another coin flip game. Washington State 68 Vanderbilt 67
#2 Georgetown-#7 Boston College: Boston College is very weak defensively. Against one of the top offensive teams in the nation, this is not a good sign. BC has a very good offense but Georgetown has a solid defense too. I have no more confidence in BC. Georgetown 75 Boston College 66
#3 Pittsburgh-#11 Virginia Commonwealth: VCU-Duke has been the best game of the tournament and the best moment so far. In hindsight, I should have picked Duke. I was not aware they had such a good pressing defense and against a turnover prone team like Duke, that was deadly. Can VCU pull off another upset? They are in the same conference as George Mason. And who did they beat in the Colonial Championship game? George Mason. Still, I'm going to pick against them again. Pitt is a more patient team than Duke. I think they'll be able to slow the game down and solve VCU's press. Their size should give them a distinct advantage. However, if they can't solve the press than VCU could be in the Sweet 16. Pittsburgh 77 VCU 67
#2 UCLA-#7 Indiana: Both teams had pretty impressive wins in the first round. This is an interesting game. I think Indiana is very capable of an upset. Even with UCLA's defense, this game will probably be higher scoring than the Bruins' comfort zone. But I like this UCLA team a lot and I think Indiana might still be a couple years away from contending for national titles. UCLA 70 Indiana 66
#1 North Carolina-#9 Michigan State: Michigan State pitched a shutout on Marquette for the first 10 minutes showing how strong their defense was. North Carolina won by 19 but they made it more interesting than it should have been by allowing EKU to cut it to 4 in the second half from a 27 point deficit. The Tar Heels cannot be that turnover-prone against Michigan State or they will lose. Simple as that. I think this will be UNC's toughest game until the Elite Eight. I think UNC's pressure will be too much. They will force a lot of turnovers and get some easy baskets to advance. But expect a hard-fought game before UNC pulls away late. North Carolina 72 Michigan State 65
#1 Ohio State-#9 Xavier: The selection committe's humor strikes as Ohio State's Thad Matta will be coaching against his former team. Ohio State had a pretty easy time with Central Connecticut State while Xavier was a dogfight with BYU that probably ranks #2 for most exciting game thus far. I think Xavier could give OSU some trouble but Ohio State's size should dominate Xavier throughout the game. And I'm just not real confident in A-10 teams this year as it was a down year for the conference. Ohio State 77 Xavier 68
#4 Maryland-#5 Butler: Davidson gave Maryland some trouble, but in the last ten minutes, the superior athletes had worn down Davidson and Maryland ended up with the win. I think the same thing could happen here. Butler is a good team no doubt. But this just seems like a bad matchup because Butler wants to win games at a slow pace. Meanwhile Maryland likes to run. I like the Terps in this one. Maryland 70 Butler 66
#3 Texas A&M-#6 Louisville: After watching the first round I may have originally chosen the wrong team to advance. Louisville humiliated Stanford from the word go while the Aggies struggled against Penn until the final 13 minutes or so. I also didn't consider that the committee basically gave Louisville two home games in Lexington, KY and as a #6 seed that is inexcusable. But life is not fair. So who do I have? I'm going to stick with the Aggies although I'm not as confident as I was before. I expect this to be a very close game with a game winning shot by Acie Law in the final seconds. But I would not be surprised if the Cardinals advance. They are that good. Instant classic anyone? Texas A&M 67 Louisville 66
#3 Washington State-#6 Vanderbilt: Another game that I have doubts as to my original pick. It had nothing to do with Washington State as they dispatched Oral Roberts with some ease. But Vanderbilt beat George Washington by 33 points! Just an anomaly or is this Vandy team for real? I guess we'll find out tomorrow. I'm going to stick with Washington State as they were my original pick but this looks like another coin flip game. Washington State 68 Vanderbilt 67
#2 Georgetown-#7 Boston College: Boston College is very weak defensively. Against one of the top offensive teams in the nation, this is not a good sign. BC has a very good offense but Georgetown has a solid defense too. I have no more confidence in BC. Georgetown 75 Boston College 66
#3 Pittsburgh-#11 Virginia Commonwealth: VCU-Duke has been the best game of the tournament and the best moment so far. In hindsight, I should have picked Duke. I was not aware they had such a good pressing defense and against a turnover prone team like Duke, that was deadly. Can VCU pull off another upset? They are in the same conference as George Mason. And who did they beat in the Colonial Championship game? George Mason. Still, I'm going to pick against them again. Pitt is a more patient team than Duke. I think they'll be able to slow the game down and solve VCU's press. Their size should give them a distinct advantage. However, if they can't solve the press than VCU could be in the Sweet 16. Pittsburgh 77 VCU 67
#2 UCLA-#7 Indiana: Both teams had pretty impressive wins in the first round. This is an interesting game. I think Indiana is very capable of an upset. Even with UCLA's defense, this game will probably be higher scoring than the Bruins' comfort zone. But I like this UCLA team a lot and I think Indiana might still be a couple years away from contending for national titles. UCLA 70 Indiana 66
#1 North Carolina-#9 Michigan State: Michigan State pitched a shutout on Marquette for the first 10 minutes showing how strong their defense was. North Carolina won by 19 but they made it more interesting than it should have been by allowing EKU to cut it to 4 in the second half from a 27 point deficit. The Tar Heels cannot be that turnover-prone against Michigan State or they will lose. Simple as that. I think this will be UNC's toughest game until the Elite Eight. I think UNC's pressure will be too much. They will force a lot of turnovers and get some easy baskets to advance. But expect a hard-fought game before UNC pulls away late. North Carolina 72 Michigan State 65
Thursday, March 15, 2007
NCAA First day recap
Most impressive: Louisville and Vandy. Louisville completely demolished Stanford from the word go and let up to only win by 20. Vanderbilt wasn't even that kind to George Washington as they beat them by 33. Clearly these two teams are better than I even thought. Both are perfectly capable of winning more games if they keep that performance up.
Biggest Surprise: One of the biggest surprises was that not much happened. Most of the games weren't close and other than Duke and a couple 8/9 games there weren't any upsets.
Biggest Disappointment: Clearly Duke. I guess I overrated them. Even with their struggles this year I thought they'd be able to pull out a couple of wins in the tourney. I was wrong.
Moral Victory: Stephen Curry of Davidson with 30 in a loss to Maryland. Eastern Kentucky cutting it to four points from a 27 point deficit before losing to UNC. Pennsylvania giving Texas A&M a tough out for a little while in the second half.
Biggest Surprise: One of the biggest surprises was that not much happened. Most of the games weren't close and other than Duke and a couple 8/9 games there weren't any upsets.
Biggest Disappointment: Clearly Duke. I guess I overrated them. Even with their struggles this year I thought they'd be able to pull out a couple of wins in the tourney. I was wrong.
Moral Victory: Stephen Curry of Davidson with 30 in a loss to Maryland. Eastern Kentucky cutting it to four points from a 27 point deficit before losing to UNC. Pennsylvania giving Texas A&M a tough out for a little while in the second half.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
The List of Eight: 2007 Edition
I've picked each of the first round games. We're a little over 24 hours away from tipoff to March Madness (if you didn't count the play-in game). Now it is time to reveal The List of Eight.
What is the List of Eight? Back in 2001, my father said that the NCAA Tournament was completely random and was not an accurate representation of the best team. I disagreed saying while the best team didn't always win, the team that emerged victorious was deserving to be called national champion. I also said it wasn't as much of a crapshoot as he believed. He challenged me that to pick eight teams at the start of the tournament out of the possible 64/65. He said that he would take the remaining field. That year four teams from my list into the Final Four. Thus the challenege was born. This year I will be going for the seventh straight year of winning this challenge. Here are the basic rules in case you didn't totally understand.
1. I pick eight teams. One of them MUST win the national title for me to declare victory. If seven of eight lose in the first round, it is not fair to mock me for I have one team remaining. Likewise, if I have seven of eight teams left, it would make no sense to brag too much, as the one remaining wild card can defeat me in the challenge. There are no bonus points for how far they advance. A team from the list MUST win the title or I lose.
2. These are not necessarily who I think are the best teams. Depending on matchups, I may choose teams I feel to be generally inferior but who may have a favorable draw.
3. There is no maximum or minimum number of teams I can choose in each regional. I may choose zero in a given region. I may choose eight in a region. It is my choice. However, as I am doing this year, I will generally pick two from each region. This seems to be a way to "diversify" for a favorable outcome.
I think that about covers the rules. Now for the list of teams that I GUARANTEE the national champion will come from. In alphabetical order...
Florida 29-5 #1 Midwest
Why they could win it: Because they won the national title last year and it's basically the same team. Although they are not the most talented team in the nation, the vast majority in this field would love to have players like Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Any team who meets the Gators are going to be a little intimidated just because it's the defending national champs. They won by an average of 16 points per game in the tourney this last year. Billy Donovan is one of the finest coaches in the college game. Also I picked them to win it all in the preseason.
Why they won't: Because winning two in a row is damn hard to do. It's happened once since the UCLA dynasy under John Wooden. It's not happened since Duke did it 1992 and Duke needed a perfect performance and a miracle from Laettner just to get to the Final Four. Also Florida is better than last year, but so is every other major contender. This year's field is much stronger than last year and I seriously doubt Florida will win by 16 a game. During the latter part of the season Florida was badly losing to teams like a very weak LSU. Were they playing possum or was it a sign of future struggles?
Georgetown 26-6 #2 East
Why they could win it: You wouldn't know it by their low point totals but Georgetown has one of the premiere offenses in the country. They just play at such a grinding tempo that it doesn't reflect in the scoreboard. But try to stop them from scoring. While I think the defense is a bit overrated, it's not like it's bad either. And with the temp the Hoyas play, if you don't execute on offense you can expect to lose 35 seconds and a point or two. I especially like their bracket set-up. Although, they're a #2 seed, Georgetown may be more likely than some of the #1 seeds to get to the Elite Eight. They're also of the hottest teams having won 15 of their last 16.
Why they won't: Potential matchup problems. If a team that is multi-faceted can play the Hoyas they could cause some troubles. I don't see it coming until the Sweet 16 or later, but a team that has some good shooters from 3 and a big guy down low will be able to keep up with the Hoyas.
Kansas 30-4 #1 West
Why the could win it: One of the two most talented teams in the country. There's so many guys who can score that it's very easy for even the best teams to be down early. And if you get up by a lot, don't expect the lead to last as witnessed by the Big 12 Title game. I think they have the best defense in the country as well. Bill Self is a fine coach
Why they won't: Bill Self is concerned because they don't have an Acie Law type player. Meaning, although they have a lot of talent, they don't have one go-to-guy down in the stretch. Who takes the shot in a close game down by 1? Kansas may get lucky and be able to blowout everybody on the way to the title...but I doubt it. They need to find someone they can trust ina tight ball game. Also, are the first round jitters over for this team. They haven't advanced out of the first round in two years. Being a #1 seed should change that but if Niagara stays around longer than expected, keep that in mind because there could be trouble.
North Carolina 28-6 #1 East
Why they could win it: North Carolina is the only team that may be more talented than Kansas. They have guys on the bench who could start for most teams. Both their offense and defense are great (although the defense is sometimes inconsistent). Roy Williams has so much talent, he makes subs constantly, and will gradually wear down less talented foes. So many different weapons in so many different ways.
Why they won't: They're young and could definitely lose to a team they shouldn't. Cough NC State. As I said, on defense when UNC is good it's a clampdown. When they're not...they can be beaten. With so much youth, they probably want to blow out teams. But what will happen to the young'uns when they get smacked in the mouth by say...Michigan State, Texas or Georgetown?
Ohio State 30-3 #1 South
Why they could win it: They are multi-faceted. They can beat you from behind the three point line. They could pass it in to Greg Oden who will likely be the #1 NBA pick next draft. And they're not dependent on one player. Greg Oden didn't have a shot in the first half against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. They won by 17. How many teams can do that against a team like Wisconsin? They also might be wanting to prove somethng since I think they got snubbed for the #1 overall seed.
Why they won't: Is Oden 100% yet. His wrist has bothered him all season. If it is causing trouble in a tight game it could be the end for the Buckeyes. Pretty inexperienced in the postseason as well. They lost by 26 to Florida. Granted Oden was a lot weaker than he is now. But teams don't lose like that and win the national title. It generally just does not happen.
Texas A&M 25-6 #3 South
Why they could win it: I've been praising them for a year, you think I'm jumping ship now? The Aggies can fluster the best opponents on defense. But just because they are great on defense, don't think they can light it up on you either as their offense is one of the best in the country. Like Kansas, playing in the Big 12 this year inspired many memorable close games. That should be great battle-testing for the NCAAs. Is there a more clutch player than Acie Law? It's gotten to the point that if it's a close game, I expect him to hit a three. I'm legitimately shocked when he misses.
Why they won't: Depth is an issue. Good chance there will be some foul trouble in at least one game. Too dependent on Law? If Law is shut down, there's not much more scoring options for this team. Of course shutting down Law is easier said than done.
UCLA 26-5 #2 West
Why they could win it: If they can play like last year, UCLA has one of the most tenacious and mind-boggling defenses in the country. Only Florida was able to solve it. Very balanced offense. Coach Ben Howland has clearly gotten UCLA into a position where they can dream of national championships like the Wooden days.
Why they won't: If you can get the tempo high, you can beat the Bruins. They want to slow the game down but get them out of their comfort zone and they could be out. Not as deep as some of the other teams on this list. They only lost five times this year but their losses weren't to teams I consider strong. An overseeded #3 Oregon. A #11 Stanford. West Virginia, California and Washington who didn't even make the NCAAs. Doesn't bode well.
Wisconsin 29-5 #2 Midwest
Why they could win it: The Badgers are another team that likes to play a slow pace, lull the opponent to sleep, and then get an easy basket. Repeated long possessions on defense can wear a team out. They have a style that many teams will be befuddled against. Alando Tucker is one of the best players in the nation. Very few can respond with a player of his talent.
Why they won't: Without Brian Butch, this team is much weaker. Their leading rebounder and third leading scorer fractured his shoulder against Ohio State and the ebst case scenario is that he could return for the Final Four? But will that be too late. Without him the losses have piled up compared to the rest of the season. Not the strongest free throw shooting team.
Well that's the list that the national champion will come from. Here are a few of the other teams I considered and why I didn't include them.
Memphis: Very talented and Calipari is a fine coach. But I think they're still a year away and I'm not certain if they'll be ready to step up to NCAA level competition as they've played one NCAA team since Christmas. Still, this was the last team I excluded. They're my pick if anyone screws up the challenge.
Maryland: One of the hotter teams in the country until the Miami loss, I'm impressed with the Terps. Another team that could pose problems, but compared to the top tier, Maryland just doesn't cut it for me.
Duke: Better than you think. And it might be a mistake to pick against Coach K. I actually think they'll win a couple of games. But the last time they won six straight this year was Jan 2.
Pittsburgh: Another solid year for Pitt. Their bracket really hurt their chances as they could face Duke, UCLA, and Kansas just to get to the Final Four.
Texas: I decided that Durant who is easily the best player in the country would have to score 30-40 points a game this tourney for them to have a chance to win it all. Which is entirely possible but I figure at least one team can solve him. And Rick Barnes has clearly shown he doesn't know how to coach this team. I've picked Texas twice in the last four years to win it all and I won't be burned this time.
Notre Dame: Everyone is picking Winthrop to beat them. I like this Irish team though. I don't think they have the talent to compete with the top tier, but if Butch isn't back for Wisconsin, they could be an Elite Eight team.
Georgia Tech: Last year I chose Texas A&M. If you want a team that's a #10 seed or lower that can win it all, I endorse Ga Tech. I have them out in the second round, but like Notre Dame, in this bracket I could see them getting to the Elite Eight.
And now before I go...here are my Final Four picks.
Midwest: Florida (The defending champs will be too strong and focused to fall short of the Final Four in this bracket)
West: Kansas (I really like this Kansas team a lot. They're so talented I can't ignore them.)
East: North Carolina (Same as Kansas. )
South: Ohio State (I wanted to pick Texas A&M. But I'm torn in the potential Memphis matchup. So I'll choose Ohio State because I think they have the easiest road of any team for the first three rounds)
Yes that's right I'm being a pansy and picking four #1 seeds. I don't normally do that. I fully expect at least one to lose before the Final Four, but I'm not sure which one to pick to lose. So I'll be safe. For the national championship I have Kansas meeting North Carolina in a match-up between the two most talented teams and Roy Williams coaching against his former team. In the end, as much as I hate to admit it, I think that North Carolina will come out on top and give Roy and his boys their 2nd national title in the last three years.
Enjoy March Madness!
What is the List of Eight? Back in 2001, my father said that the NCAA Tournament was completely random and was not an accurate representation of the best team. I disagreed saying while the best team didn't always win, the team that emerged victorious was deserving to be called national champion. I also said it wasn't as much of a crapshoot as he believed. He challenged me that to pick eight teams at the start of the tournament out of the possible 64/65. He said that he would take the remaining field. That year four teams from my list into the Final Four. Thus the challenege was born. This year I will be going for the seventh straight year of winning this challenge. Here are the basic rules in case you didn't totally understand.
1. I pick eight teams. One of them MUST win the national title for me to declare victory. If seven of eight lose in the first round, it is not fair to mock me for I have one team remaining. Likewise, if I have seven of eight teams left, it would make no sense to brag too much, as the one remaining wild card can defeat me in the challenge. There are no bonus points for how far they advance. A team from the list MUST win the title or I lose.
2. These are not necessarily who I think are the best teams. Depending on matchups, I may choose teams I feel to be generally inferior but who may have a favorable draw.
3. There is no maximum or minimum number of teams I can choose in each regional. I may choose zero in a given region. I may choose eight in a region. It is my choice. However, as I am doing this year, I will generally pick two from each region. This seems to be a way to "diversify" for a favorable outcome.
I think that about covers the rules. Now for the list of teams that I GUARANTEE the national champion will come from. In alphabetical order...
Florida 29-5 #1 Midwest
Why they could win it: Because they won the national title last year and it's basically the same team. Although they are not the most talented team in the nation, the vast majority in this field would love to have players like Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Any team who meets the Gators are going to be a little intimidated just because it's the defending national champs. They won by an average of 16 points per game in the tourney this last year. Billy Donovan is one of the finest coaches in the college game. Also I picked them to win it all in the preseason.
Why they won't: Because winning two in a row is damn hard to do. It's happened once since the UCLA dynasy under John Wooden. It's not happened since Duke did it 1992 and Duke needed a perfect performance and a miracle from Laettner just to get to the Final Four. Also Florida is better than last year, but so is every other major contender. This year's field is much stronger than last year and I seriously doubt Florida will win by 16 a game. During the latter part of the season Florida was badly losing to teams like a very weak LSU. Were they playing possum or was it a sign of future struggles?
Georgetown 26-6 #2 East
Why they could win it: You wouldn't know it by their low point totals but Georgetown has one of the premiere offenses in the country. They just play at such a grinding tempo that it doesn't reflect in the scoreboard. But try to stop them from scoring. While I think the defense is a bit overrated, it's not like it's bad either. And with the temp the Hoyas play, if you don't execute on offense you can expect to lose 35 seconds and a point or two. I especially like their bracket set-up. Although, they're a #2 seed, Georgetown may be more likely than some of the #1 seeds to get to the Elite Eight. They're also of the hottest teams having won 15 of their last 16.
Why they won't: Potential matchup problems. If a team that is multi-faceted can play the Hoyas they could cause some troubles. I don't see it coming until the Sweet 16 or later, but a team that has some good shooters from 3 and a big guy down low will be able to keep up with the Hoyas.
Kansas 30-4 #1 West
Why the could win it: One of the two most talented teams in the country. There's so many guys who can score that it's very easy for even the best teams to be down early. And if you get up by a lot, don't expect the lead to last as witnessed by the Big 12 Title game. I think they have the best defense in the country as well. Bill Self is a fine coach
Why they won't: Bill Self is concerned because they don't have an Acie Law type player. Meaning, although they have a lot of talent, they don't have one go-to-guy down in the stretch. Who takes the shot in a close game down by 1? Kansas may get lucky and be able to blowout everybody on the way to the title...but I doubt it. They need to find someone they can trust ina tight ball game. Also, are the first round jitters over for this team. They haven't advanced out of the first round in two years. Being a #1 seed should change that but if Niagara stays around longer than expected, keep that in mind because there could be trouble.
North Carolina 28-6 #1 East
Why they could win it: North Carolina is the only team that may be more talented than Kansas. They have guys on the bench who could start for most teams. Both their offense and defense are great (although the defense is sometimes inconsistent). Roy Williams has so much talent, he makes subs constantly, and will gradually wear down less talented foes. So many different weapons in so many different ways.
Why they won't: They're young and could definitely lose to a team they shouldn't. Cough NC State. As I said, on defense when UNC is good it's a clampdown. When they're not...they can be beaten. With so much youth, they probably want to blow out teams. But what will happen to the young'uns when they get smacked in the mouth by say...Michigan State, Texas or Georgetown?
Ohio State 30-3 #1 South
Why they could win it: They are multi-faceted. They can beat you from behind the three point line. They could pass it in to Greg Oden who will likely be the #1 NBA pick next draft. And they're not dependent on one player. Greg Oden didn't have a shot in the first half against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. They won by 17. How many teams can do that against a team like Wisconsin? They also might be wanting to prove somethng since I think they got snubbed for the #1 overall seed.
Why they won't: Is Oden 100% yet. His wrist has bothered him all season. If it is causing trouble in a tight game it could be the end for the Buckeyes. Pretty inexperienced in the postseason as well. They lost by 26 to Florida. Granted Oden was a lot weaker than he is now. But teams don't lose like that and win the national title. It generally just does not happen.
Texas A&M 25-6 #3 South
Why they could win it: I've been praising them for a year, you think I'm jumping ship now? The Aggies can fluster the best opponents on defense. But just because they are great on defense, don't think they can light it up on you either as their offense is one of the best in the country. Like Kansas, playing in the Big 12 this year inspired many memorable close games. That should be great battle-testing for the NCAAs. Is there a more clutch player than Acie Law? It's gotten to the point that if it's a close game, I expect him to hit a three. I'm legitimately shocked when he misses.
Why they won't: Depth is an issue. Good chance there will be some foul trouble in at least one game. Too dependent on Law? If Law is shut down, there's not much more scoring options for this team. Of course shutting down Law is easier said than done.
UCLA 26-5 #2 West
Why they could win it: If they can play like last year, UCLA has one of the most tenacious and mind-boggling defenses in the country. Only Florida was able to solve it. Very balanced offense. Coach Ben Howland has clearly gotten UCLA into a position where they can dream of national championships like the Wooden days.
Why they won't: If you can get the tempo high, you can beat the Bruins. They want to slow the game down but get them out of their comfort zone and they could be out. Not as deep as some of the other teams on this list. They only lost five times this year but their losses weren't to teams I consider strong. An overseeded #3 Oregon. A #11 Stanford. West Virginia, California and Washington who didn't even make the NCAAs. Doesn't bode well.
Wisconsin 29-5 #2 Midwest
Why they could win it: The Badgers are another team that likes to play a slow pace, lull the opponent to sleep, and then get an easy basket. Repeated long possessions on defense can wear a team out. They have a style that many teams will be befuddled against. Alando Tucker is one of the best players in the nation. Very few can respond with a player of his talent.
Why they won't: Without Brian Butch, this team is much weaker. Their leading rebounder and third leading scorer fractured his shoulder against Ohio State and the ebst case scenario is that he could return for the Final Four? But will that be too late. Without him the losses have piled up compared to the rest of the season. Not the strongest free throw shooting team.
Well that's the list that the national champion will come from. Here are a few of the other teams I considered and why I didn't include them.
Memphis: Very talented and Calipari is a fine coach. But I think they're still a year away and I'm not certain if they'll be ready to step up to NCAA level competition as they've played one NCAA team since Christmas. Still, this was the last team I excluded. They're my pick if anyone screws up the challenge.
Maryland: One of the hotter teams in the country until the Miami loss, I'm impressed with the Terps. Another team that could pose problems, but compared to the top tier, Maryland just doesn't cut it for me.
Duke: Better than you think. And it might be a mistake to pick against Coach K. I actually think they'll win a couple of games. But the last time they won six straight this year was Jan 2.
Pittsburgh: Another solid year for Pitt. Their bracket really hurt their chances as they could face Duke, UCLA, and Kansas just to get to the Final Four.
Texas: I decided that Durant who is easily the best player in the country would have to score 30-40 points a game this tourney for them to have a chance to win it all. Which is entirely possible but I figure at least one team can solve him. And Rick Barnes has clearly shown he doesn't know how to coach this team. I've picked Texas twice in the last four years to win it all and I won't be burned this time.
Notre Dame: Everyone is picking Winthrop to beat them. I like this Irish team though. I don't think they have the talent to compete with the top tier, but if Butch isn't back for Wisconsin, they could be an Elite Eight team.
Georgia Tech: Last year I chose Texas A&M. If you want a team that's a #10 seed or lower that can win it all, I endorse Ga Tech. I have them out in the second round, but like Notre Dame, in this bracket I could see them getting to the Elite Eight.
And now before I go...here are my Final Four picks.
Midwest: Florida (The defending champs will be too strong and focused to fall short of the Final Four in this bracket)
West: Kansas (I really like this Kansas team a lot. They're so talented I can't ignore them.)
East: North Carolina (Same as Kansas. )
South: Ohio State (I wanted to pick Texas A&M. But I'm torn in the potential Memphis matchup. So I'll choose Ohio State because I think they have the easiest road of any team for the first three rounds)
Yes that's right I'm being a pansy and picking four #1 seeds. I don't normally do that. I fully expect at least one to lose before the Final Four, but I'm not sure which one to pick to lose. So I'll be safe. For the national championship I have Kansas meeting North Carolina in a match-up between the two most talented teams and Roy Williams coaching against his former team. In the end, as much as I hate to admit it, I think that North Carolina will come out on top and give Roy and his boys their 2nd national title in the last three years.
Enjoy March Madness!
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
West Regional Picks
Well the play-in game is over. As I predicted Niagara won so they advance to play Kansas. I'm 1-0 with my NCAA picks. Hooray! I'll have my List of Eight in which I will GUARANTEE that one of the eight teams I choose will cut down the nets in Atlanta. Here are my final first round picks for the West region.
#1 Kansas-#16 Niagara: Whether Niagara of Florida A&M, the outcome will be the same. Kansas 88 Niagara 59
#8 Kentucky-#9 Villanova Gah this is is a tough one to pick. I'm not sure there' s a more evenly matched set of teams in the tourney. Both had double digit losses but I think either one could cause problems for Kansas in round 2. I don't have any legit reason to pick one over the other. So let's go to tiebreakers. Which coach has won a national championship? That'd be Tubby Smith. Kentucky 71 Villanova 70
#5 Virginia Tech-#12 Illinois: Just as tough as the Kentucky-Nova game. I've seen Virginia Tech this year and they're so damn bipolar it's not even funny. I have absolutely no faith in them whatsoever. But it's not like Illinois set the world on fire either. With a #5-#12 matchup between major conference teams I've got to go with the upset. Illinois's excruciatingly slow tempo and solid defense will fluster Va Tech who is as my brother said, one of the dumbest teams in the country. I pick the Illini to advance. Illinois 63 Virginia Tech 62
#4 Southern Illinois-#13 Holy Cross: Holy Cross could pose some problems for the Salukis but I like the Salukis' defense. And maybe I'm hoping for an Illinois-Southern Illinois defense slugfest that could be a first to 50 wins matchup. Go Salukis! Southern Illinois 63 Holy Cross 55
#6 Duke-#11 VCU: Clearly Duke is having a down year so obviously VCU will pull the upset. Which is why I'm picking....Duke? Ok I lied because I don't think VCU will pull the upset. Everyone who doesn't think Duke can win some games in this tournament is sadly mistaken. They had ten losses this year. Eight were to teams in this tournament. One was to Florida State who nearly made the tournament. The other was to NC State who nearly won the ACC Tournament and Henderson was suspended for that game. And I'm not going to pick against Coach K in a first round game against a mid-major. Would you bet money against him? Didn't think so. Duke 75 VCU 64
#3 Pittsburgh-#14 Wright State: I've seen Pitt play and they're a good but not great team. But they play a very hard slow-paced defensive style which is a little too similar to Wright State to be taken out of their comfort zone. I just don't see an upset here. Pittsburgh 72 Wright State 59
#7 Indiana-#10 Gonzaga: Gonzaga rallied from a mediocre (by their standards) season and problems off the field to win the West Coast. I think the suspension of Heytvelt will doom this team to an early exit especially against a tough Indiana squad. But beware, Gonzaga seems to do best when nobody thinks they are capable of doing well. So consider this a challenge Zags. Indiana 77 Gonzaga 71
#2 UCLA-#15 Weber State: I thought even losing two straight to end the season, UCLA should have been a #1 seed. I'm sure Weber State will agree with me after the game. UCLA 80 Weber State 57
#1 Kansas-#16 Niagara: Whether Niagara of Florida A&M, the outcome will be the same. Kansas 88 Niagara 59
#8 Kentucky-#9 Villanova Gah this is is a tough one to pick. I'm not sure there' s a more evenly matched set of teams in the tourney. Both had double digit losses but I think either one could cause problems for Kansas in round 2. I don't have any legit reason to pick one over the other. So let's go to tiebreakers. Which coach has won a national championship? That'd be Tubby Smith. Kentucky 71 Villanova 70
#5 Virginia Tech-#12 Illinois: Just as tough as the Kentucky-Nova game. I've seen Virginia Tech this year and they're so damn bipolar it's not even funny. I have absolutely no faith in them whatsoever. But it's not like Illinois set the world on fire either. With a #5-#12 matchup between major conference teams I've got to go with the upset. Illinois's excruciatingly slow tempo and solid defense will fluster Va Tech who is as my brother said, one of the dumbest teams in the country. I pick the Illini to advance. Illinois 63 Virginia Tech 62
#4 Southern Illinois-#13 Holy Cross: Holy Cross could pose some problems for the Salukis but I like the Salukis' defense. And maybe I'm hoping for an Illinois-Southern Illinois defense slugfest that could be a first to 50 wins matchup. Go Salukis! Southern Illinois 63 Holy Cross 55
#6 Duke-#11 VCU: Clearly Duke is having a down year so obviously VCU will pull the upset. Which is why I'm picking....Duke? Ok I lied because I don't think VCU will pull the upset. Everyone who doesn't think Duke can win some games in this tournament is sadly mistaken. They had ten losses this year. Eight were to teams in this tournament. One was to Florida State who nearly made the tournament. The other was to NC State who nearly won the ACC Tournament and Henderson was suspended for that game. And I'm not going to pick against Coach K in a first round game against a mid-major. Would you bet money against him? Didn't think so. Duke 75 VCU 64
#3 Pittsburgh-#14 Wright State: I've seen Pitt play and they're a good but not great team. But they play a very hard slow-paced defensive style which is a little too similar to Wright State to be taken out of their comfort zone. I just don't see an upset here. Pittsburgh 72 Wright State 59
#7 Indiana-#10 Gonzaga: Gonzaga rallied from a mediocre (by their standards) season and problems off the field to win the West Coast. I think the suspension of Heytvelt will doom this team to an early exit especially against a tough Indiana squad. But beware, Gonzaga seems to do best when nobody thinks they are capable of doing well. So consider this a challenge Zags. Indiana 77 Gonzaga 71
#2 UCLA-#15 Weber State: I thought even losing two straight to end the season, UCLA should have been a #1 seed. I'm sure Weber State will agree with me after the game. UCLA 80 Weber State 57
THIS IS SPARTA!
I went and saw 300 with Will and Michael this afternoon. I have one word to describe it.
Eh.
It was all right. Pretty impressive visually. But it doesn't strike me as a film that I'll remember watching. Could have been a lot better.
I am excited though. Because Pan's Labyrinth is playing in Hickory. I plan to attend another showing tomorrow and hopefully bring Will in tow. It shall be glorious. I am as giddy as a schoolgirl. And no I'm not ashamed to say that.
Although I probably should be.
Eh.
It was all right. Pretty impressive visually. But it doesn't strike me as a film that I'll remember watching. Could have been a lot better.
I am excited though. Because Pan's Labyrinth is playing in Hickory. I plan to attend another showing tomorrow and hopefully bring Will in tow. It shall be glorious. I am as giddy as a schoolgirl. And no I'm not ashamed to say that.
Although I probably should be.
CNBC Contest First Week
I'm still doing pretty well in the CNBC contest but my position has slipped some recently. At the close of trading I was in 7,436th place which is in the top 3% overall. I'll probably be going down some though because I have all my money in Meritage Homes and it's down 6% today with all the subprime meltdown. Speaking of which, good thing I sold NEW after a one day gain of 10%. Since then it has entered the liquidity crisis death spiral and bankruptcy is starting to look inevitable. It was delisted today. And to think I nearly bought it for my actual portfolio. That would have been a big mistake. Here's what has happened to New Century Financial's stock price since the start of the year
Jan 1: $31.59
Jan 11: $32.06
Feb 7: $30.16
Feb 12: $17.21
Mar 2: $14.65
Mar 5: $4.56
Today: $1.19
That's a loss of about $1.6 billion dollars in a little over a month. Looks pretty bleak. But yeah good thing I took the quick gain in the game and kept my real money out of this. New Century may become synonymous with Enron when it's all said and done. Should be interesting to watch.
Jan 1: $31.59
Jan 11: $32.06
Feb 7: $30.16
Feb 12: $17.21
Mar 2: $14.65
Mar 5: $4.56
Today: $1.19
That's a loss of about $1.6 billion dollars in a little over a month. Looks pretty bleak. But yeah good thing I took the quick gain in the game and kept my real money out of this. New Century may become synonymous with Enron when it's all said and done. Should be interesting to watch.
Viacom sues YouTube
Viacom sues YouTube
Yeah Viacom! You get 'em! I'd sue them too if they were advertising my properties at no cost to me! Especially when they're advertising old music videos that I never play anymore. Don't you let them do that. They need to sit in the closet and collect dust while we show another rerun of Jackass. Or The Real World marathon.
As I said in a post a little while ago, apparently Viacom doesn't realize how stupid they are. I was watching videos that had their bug in the corner. Now I'm not, it's virtually the same thing. So now they're not "marketing" their image in my brain. Before I could watch a video...see the MTV 2 bug in the corner and think "Oh cool MTV and Viacom brought me this video". Now I watch generaic videos and I don't think so.
I don't know if Viacom is in the actual music industry like EMI and the like. But if not they need to start a label ASAP. Because they've shown that their managers are just as idiotic as the RIAA. I think Viacom's next move is to personally sue everyone who has an account on YouTube similar to The Onion article. Clearly, these people need to be sitting in front of a TV watching Viacom's valuable programming instead of dithering on the internet all the live long day. I'll expect my summons in the mail shortly.
Yeah Viacom! You get 'em! I'd sue them too if they were advertising my properties at no cost to me! Especially when they're advertising old music videos that I never play anymore. Don't you let them do that. They need to sit in the closet and collect dust while we show another rerun of Jackass. Or The Real World marathon.
As I said in a post a little while ago, apparently Viacom doesn't realize how stupid they are. I was watching videos that had their bug in the corner. Now I'm not, it's virtually the same thing. So now they're not "marketing" their image in my brain. Before I could watch a video...see the MTV 2 bug in the corner and think "Oh cool MTV and Viacom brought me this video". Now I watch generaic videos and I don't think so.
I don't know if Viacom is in the actual music industry like EMI and the like. But if not they need to start a label ASAP. Because they've shown that their managers are just as idiotic as the RIAA. I think Viacom's next move is to personally sue everyone who has an account on YouTube similar to The Onion article. Clearly, these people need to be sitting in front of a TV watching Viacom's valuable programming instead of dithering on the internet all the live long day. I'll expect my summons in the mail shortly.
Monday, March 12, 2007
South Regional Picks
Just to let you know, I'll have the West Regional picks after the Florida A&M/Niagara game tomorrow. On to the South!
#1 Ohio State-#16 Central Connecticut State: I'm sure Ohio State is disappointed that they didn't receive the #1 overall seed. Expect Cent. Connecticut State to feel the brunt of their frustration. Ohio State 83 Central Connecticut State 57
#8 BYU-#9 Xavier: Do I go with the Mormons or the Musketeers? All for one and one for all! Xavier 78 BYU 75
#5 Tennessee-#12 Long Beach State: Great news for Long Beach State! They play a very uptempo style and can score in bunches which is not only fun to watch and can be ideal for first-round upsets. Bad news though...Tennessee likes playing uptempo too and has far superior athletes. It'll be cute for awhile, but Tennessee should wear them out by the end of the game. Tennessee 87 Long Beach State 74
#4 Virginia-#13 Albany: Virginia has one of the best guard tandems in the country with Singletary and Reynolds. Their big men are a tad lacking though. This is a pretty high seed and would seem ripe for an upset. But I just don't think Albany is the team to capitalize. They are very turnover prone and don't seem to have the frontcourt that can make UVA pay. So I expect Virginia to advance. Virginia 78 Albany 65
#6 Louisville-#11 Stanford: Stanford was one of the more controversial picks for this year's tournament. They're a pretty good team though. I just think they're a year away from making noise in the tournament. Meanwhile, Louisville completely turned their season around about a month ago and will be a tough out for anyone down the line. Louisville 70 Stanford 64
#3 Texas A&M-#14 Pennsylvania: So you want a braver than usual pick to win it all. You don't want to stick to those boring #1 and #2 seeds? May I suggest (for the thousandth time this year) Texas A&M? I don't need to talk too much about them as I've been lauding them for a year. They should be able to beat a weaker than usual Pennsylvania. They're not very good at rebounding or free throw shooting. Those are important components for an upset. I don't expect it to be close. Texas A&M 80 Pennsylvania 62
#7 Nevada-#10 Creighton: Well if it isn't Nevada, the bane of my existence. You ruined my bracket by beating my Final Four bound Gonzaga several years ago. And then I decided to pick you to the Sweet 16 and you got upset by Montana! Damn you! I refuse to pick you out of anger. I don't care if you do have one of the best players in the country in Nick Fazekas. I'll go with Creighton who has been known for pulling "upsets" in NCAAs past. Creighton 74 Nevada 70
#2 Memphis-#15 North Texas: Memphis was a #1 seed last year and got to the Elite Eight. I think this year's team could be even better. Most of the pundits may think they're still a year away, but I think they said the same of Florida last year. And Arizona in 1997. You get the drift. Memphis definitely has the goods to go far in this tournament. Nice knowing you North Texas. Memphis 84 North Texas 60
#1 Ohio State-#16 Central Connecticut State: I'm sure Ohio State is disappointed that they didn't receive the #1 overall seed. Expect Cent. Connecticut State to feel the brunt of their frustration. Ohio State 83 Central Connecticut State 57
#8 BYU-#9 Xavier: Do I go with the Mormons or the Musketeers? All for one and one for all! Xavier 78 BYU 75
#5 Tennessee-#12 Long Beach State: Great news for Long Beach State! They play a very uptempo style and can score in bunches which is not only fun to watch and can be ideal for first-round upsets. Bad news though...Tennessee likes playing uptempo too and has far superior athletes. It'll be cute for awhile, but Tennessee should wear them out by the end of the game. Tennessee 87 Long Beach State 74
#4 Virginia-#13 Albany: Virginia has one of the best guard tandems in the country with Singletary and Reynolds. Their big men are a tad lacking though. This is a pretty high seed and would seem ripe for an upset. But I just don't think Albany is the team to capitalize. They are very turnover prone and don't seem to have the frontcourt that can make UVA pay. So I expect Virginia to advance. Virginia 78 Albany 65
#6 Louisville-#11 Stanford: Stanford was one of the more controversial picks for this year's tournament. They're a pretty good team though. I just think they're a year away from making noise in the tournament. Meanwhile, Louisville completely turned their season around about a month ago and will be a tough out for anyone down the line. Louisville 70 Stanford 64
#3 Texas A&M-#14 Pennsylvania: So you want a braver than usual pick to win it all. You don't want to stick to those boring #1 and #2 seeds? May I suggest (for the thousandth time this year) Texas A&M? I don't need to talk too much about them as I've been lauding them for a year. They should be able to beat a weaker than usual Pennsylvania. They're not very good at rebounding or free throw shooting. Those are important components for an upset. I don't expect it to be close. Texas A&M 80 Pennsylvania 62
#7 Nevada-#10 Creighton: Well if it isn't Nevada, the bane of my existence. You ruined my bracket by beating my Final Four bound Gonzaga several years ago. And then I decided to pick you to the Sweet 16 and you got upset by Montana! Damn you! I refuse to pick you out of anger. I don't care if you do have one of the best players in the country in Nick Fazekas. I'll go with Creighton who has been known for pulling "upsets" in NCAAs past. Creighton 74 Nevada 70
#2 Memphis-#15 North Texas: Memphis was a #1 seed last year and got to the Elite Eight. I think this year's team could be even better. Most of the pundits may think they're still a year away, but I think they said the same of Florida last year. And Arizona in 1997. You get the drift. Memphis definitely has the goods to go far in this tournament. Nice knowing you North Texas. Memphis 84 North Texas 60
East Regional Picks
#1 North Carolina-#16 Eastern Kentucky: Hmm...the most talented team in the country or the champion of the Ohio Valley. God these picks are so hard! North Carolina 86 Eastern Kentucky 56
#8 Marquette-#9 Michigan State: The #8-#9 match-up is a tad more difficult. I like the Spartans in this one. They struggled some throughout the season with a few losing streaks but like Duke I think they're better than the record indicates. I expect them to turn it into an ugly slog of a game and upend the Golden Eagles. Michigan State 67 Marquette 65
#5 USC-#12 Arkansas: I'm not sure how USC is a #5 seed. Seems pretty high. Which is why this game screams UPSET ALERT! I've noticed that teams that are generally the most controversial choices in the NCAAs at least win one game. Arkansas will be one of the examples for 2007. Arkansas should be able to exploit its big men and dominate the glass. Don't be too upset USC. You'll be really good with O.J. Mayo coming next year. But this year you'll be a first round victim. Arkansas 69 USC 68
#4 Texas-#13 New Mexico State: I don't know much about New Mexico State. I do know that Kevin Durant will put up at least 30 on them though. Texas 82 New Mexico State 69
#6 Vanderbilt-#11 George Washington: I think Vandy has a similar offense to West Virginia. They have five starters who can all knock down threes and when opponents try to guard too closely, they unleash cuts to the basket. They will be vulnerable to a more athletic team. George Washington probably doesn't fit the bill though. G-Dub has some tricky defense but I think the barrage from the 3 point line will be too much. Vanderbilt 74 George Washington 68
#3 Washington State-#14 Oral Roberts: Could be more interesting than you think. Washington State likes to play very slow and has a very stout defense. Oral Roberts beat Kansas earlier this year so it's quite conceivable they could beat Washington State. They have some very good senior players and they've been to the NCAAs before getting clubbed last year by Memphis. So am I going for the upset? I'm not brave enough. But if Oral does pull off the upset, I won't be surprised. Washington State 69 Oral Roberts 61
#7 Boston College-#10 Texas Tech: Boston College is talented but I agree with my brother, they are one of the dumbest teams in the ACC (along with Va Tech). I would not be surprised to see BC flame out of the Tourney in spectacular fashion. And Texas Tech could certainly captalize with one of the all time greats Bobby Knight at the helm. But this matchup might be in BC's favor because Texas Tech has been very inconsistent this season. He's struggled since ACC teams have put a clamp on him but expect Jared Dudley to breakout for at least one game and lead BC on to the second round. Boston College 75 Texas Tech 71
#2 Georgetown-#15 Belmont: No team has risen more in recent weeks in my eye than Georgetown. I really love their section of the bracket and think they could go very far. But it's one game at a time. Sadly for Belmont I don't think they'll be much of a hindrance to the Hoyas. Belmont was blown out by a #2 seed UCLA last year. Expect a similar outcome. Georgetown 78 Belmont 58
#8 Marquette-#9 Michigan State: The #8-#9 match-up is a tad more difficult. I like the Spartans in this one. They struggled some throughout the season with a few losing streaks but like Duke I think they're better than the record indicates. I expect them to turn it into an ugly slog of a game and upend the Golden Eagles. Michigan State 67 Marquette 65
#5 USC-#12 Arkansas: I'm not sure how USC is a #5 seed. Seems pretty high. Which is why this game screams UPSET ALERT! I've noticed that teams that are generally the most controversial choices in the NCAAs at least win one game. Arkansas will be one of the examples for 2007. Arkansas should be able to exploit its big men and dominate the glass. Don't be too upset USC. You'll be really good with O.J. Mayo coming next year. But this year you'll be a first round victim. Arkansas 69 USC 68
#4 Texas-#13 New Mexico State: I don't know much about New Mexico State. I do know that Kevin Durant will put up at least 30 on them though. Texas 82 New Mexico State 69
#6 Vanderbilt-#11 George Washington: I think Vandy has a similar offense to West Virginia. They have five starters who can all knock down threes and when opponents try to guard too closely, they unleash cuts to the basket. They will be vulnerable to a more athletic team. George Washington probably doesn't fit the bill though. G-Dub has some tricky defense but I think the barrage from the 3 point line will be too much. Vanderbilt 74 George Washington 68
#3 Washington State-#14 Oral Roberts: Could be more interesting than you think. Washington State likes to play very slow and has a very stout defense. Oral Roberts beat Kansas earlier this year so it's quite conceivable they could beat Washington State. They have some very good senior players and they've been to the NCAAs before getting clubbed last year by Memphis. So am I going for the upset? I'm not brave enough. But if Oral does pull off the upset, I won't be surprised. Washington State 69 Oral Roberts 61
#7 Boston College-#10 Texas Tech: Boston College is talented but I agree with my brother, they are one of the dumbest teams in the ACC (along with Va Tech). I would not be surprised to see BC flame out of the Tourney in spectacular fashion. And Texas Tech could certainly captalize with one of the all time greats Bobby Knight at the helm. But this matchup might be in BC's favor because Texas Tech has been very inconsistent this season. He's struggled since ACC teams have put a clamp on him but expect Jared Dudley to breakout for at least one game and lead BC on to the second round. Boston College 75 Texas Tech 71
#2 Georgetown-#15 Belmont: No team has risen more in recent weeks in my eye than Georgetown. I really love their section of the bracket and think they could go very far. But it's one game at a time. Sadly for Belmont I don't think they'll be much of a hindrance to the Hoyas. Belmont was blown out by a #2 seed UCLA last year. Expect a similar outcome. Georgetown 78 Belmont 58
Observations on Florida and North Carolina
I feel like I need to respond to a lot of the "punditry" going on before the NCAA Tournament. Here are two different things I am hearing.
Florida is the defending champ and the clear favorite to repeat. They have by far the easiest road and will be a near-lock to the Final Four. Florida had turned it on and are now in postseason form and will cut down the nets when all is said and done.
North Carolina is clearly the weakest #1 seed. They are horribly inconsistent. Tyler Hansbrough is a shell of his former self wearing the mask after Henderson broke his nose. They've got to turn it around or they will have no chance of making the Final Four.
I would like to ask a question....What the fuck are these people talking about?
Before I go into my diatribe, I will point out that Florida was my preseason #1. I will also point out that with the bracket set, I am currently thinking of picking North Carolina. That is not final but just to get it out of the way, that's who I'm leaning towards now.
Here's my main problem concerning Florida. Did everyone forget what was happening right before the SEC Tournament. Where Florida looked awful in losses to Vandy, LSU, and Tennessee. Let me compare the losses of Florida to the losses of North Carolina.
Florida: Kansas (loss to a #1 seed in overtime. Not bad), Florida State (not the greatest but it's a rivalry game so it's excusable), Vanderbilt (by 13 to a team that was probably slotted too high at #6), LSU(by 10 and it was at times a lot more. LSU sucked this year and was missing their best player in this game), Tennessee (by 10 and not as close as the score indicated.)
North Carolina: Gonzaga, twice to Virginia Tech (odd but they got a #5 seed so it's not unforgivable), NC State (ok that one is), Maryland (a #4 seed), Georgia Tech ( #10 seed).
So even though Florida has less losses to UNC, they have one more loss to a team not in the NCAAs. Here's another stat. North Carolina nonconference wins over teams in Tourney: 6. Florida? 1
Suddenly Florida beats Kentucky in the regular season finale, then sweeps through the SEC Tourney beating Georgia, Missisippi, and Arkansas and now they're hands down the favorite? I don't buy it. And the statements about it being an easy bracket are preposterous. Florida will have to play Arizona or Purdue in the 2nd round. That won't be an easy victory. They could play Maryland just to get to the Elite 8. They could play Notre Dame, Ga Tech, Wisconsin or Oregon for the Final Four. These aren't scrubs. Everyone is not taking into account how difficult it is to win the national title. Is Florida better than last year's team? I think so. But guess what? So is everybody else! This year is much stronger competition than last year. Don't expect the #1 seeds to get shut out of the Final Four like last year.
Now for my current case for Carolina. Is Hansbrough constricted with his mask? He seems to be. But guess what...this ain't a one man team. Carolina has at least four potential NBA lottery picks on their team. They have guys who dont even play that could start for most of the teams in the country. Along with Kansas they are one of the two most talented teams down the roster. And it doesn't happen every year, but the most talented team generally does win it all. People say North Carolina is inconsistent. The statistics don't totally support that conclusion. They're about average. And if you want to talk about consistency, I have a stat that says Florida is the 323rd most consistent team in the country. That's in the bottom 15. I watched Florida get killed by LSU, a team who went 17-15 this year and didn't even have their best player. And they got killed! And Tennessee beat them badly as well. Tennessee is decent, but they're not a national title contender!
I don't think these pundits know what they're talking about. Is Florida a national title contender? Of course! They're the defending champs, it's the same team as last year, and if you want to win it all, there's a good chance you're going to have to beat them. But to act as if they are head and shoulders above everyone else and declare a team like UNC to be the weakest #1 seed, is simply disingenuous.
Last year everyone said all the teams should go home because it was between Duke and UConn. Neither made it to the Final Four.
In 2003, everyone was crushed because Kentucky and Arizona who were clearly the two best teams in the country were on the same side of the bracket meaning they couldn't meet in the national title game. Neither made it to the Sweet 16
In 1991, UNLV was unbeatable. They lost.
In 1985, Villanova couldn't possibly beat Georgetown
In 1983, NC State had no chance of beating Houston.
The reason I'm mentioning these examples is because when the sportscasters come on and declare that a team is a lock or a clinch to go all the way...they are wrong. In a tournament like this, nothing is a lock and nothing is easy. When the best teams in the country probably have around a 15% chance of winning it all, you can't take anything for granted. If you put Florida as your national champ, that's a great choice. I won't criticize you. I'm leaning towards either North Carolina or Kansas myself but I could be wrong. I'm just trying to pick the team who I think has the best chance of winning. I picked Texas last year. They didn't even get to the Final Four. I'm just saying, don't pick your bracket based on what some expert says. Because these "experts" I've found are just as clueless as you and me when it comes to picking a champion. And I might be wrong, but the reasons these experts are giving for UNC to stuggle and Florida to romp are sadly mistaken.
But we'll find out in the next three weeks.
Florida is the defending champ and the clear favorite to repeat. They have by far the easiest road and will be a near-lock to the Final Four. Florida had turned it on and are now in postseason form and will cut down the nets when all is said and done.
North Carolina is clearly the weakest #1 seed. They are horribly inconsistent. Tyler Hansbrough is a shell of his former self wearing the mask after Henderson broke his nose. They've got to turn it around or they will have no chance of making the Final Four.
I would like to ask a question....What the fuck are these people talking about?
Before I go into my diatribe, I will point out that Florida was my preseason #1. I will also point out that with the bracket set, I am currently thinking of picking North Carolina. That is not final but just to get it out of the way, that's who I'm leaning towards now.
Here's my main problem concerning Florida. Did everyone forget what was happening right before the SEC Tournament. Where Florida looked awful in losses to Vandy, LSU, and Tennessee. Let me compare the losses of Florida to the losses of North Carolina.
Florida: Kansas (loss to a #1 seed in overtime. Not bad), Florida State (not the greatest but it's a rivalry game so it's excusable), Vanderbilt (by 13 to a team that was probably slotted too high at #6), LSU(by 10 and it was at times a lot more. LSU sucked this year and was missing their best player in this game), Tennessee (by 10 and not as close as the score indicated.)
North Carolina: Gonzaga, twice to Virginia Tech (odd but they got a #5 seed so it's not unforgivable), NC State (ok that one is), Maryland (a #4 seed), Georgia Tech ( #10 seed).
So even though Florida has less losses to UNC, they have one more loss to a team not in the NCAAs. Here's another stat. North Carolina nonconference wins over teams in Tourney: 6. Florida? 1
Suddenly Florida beats Kentucky in the regular season finale, then sweeps through the SEC Tourney beating Georgia, Missisippi, and Arkansas and now they're hands down the favorite? I don't buy it. And the statements about it being an easy bracket are preposterous. Florida will have to play Arizona or Purdue in the 2nd round. That won't be an easy victory. They could play Maryland just to get to the Elite 8. They could play Notre Dame, Ga Tech, Wisconsin or Oregon for the Final Four. These aren't scrubs. Everyone is not taking into account how difficult it is to win the national title. Is Florida better than last year's team? I think so. But guess what? So is everybody else! This year is much stronger competition than last year. Don't expect the #1 seeds to get shut out of the Final Four like last year.
Now for my current case for Carolina. Is Hansbrough constricted with his mask? He seems to be. But guess what...this ain't a one man team. Carolina has at least four potential NBA lottery picks on their team. They have guys who dont even play that could start for most of the teams in the country. Along with Kansas they are one of the two most talented teams down the roster. And it doesn't happen every year, but the most talented team generally does win it all. People say North Carolina is inconsistent. The statistics don't totally support that conclusion. They're about average. And if you want to talk about consistency, I have a stat that says Florida is the 323rd most consistent team in the country. That's in the bottom 15. I watched Florida get killed by LSU, a team who went 17-15 this year and didn't even have their best player. And they got killed! And Tennessee beat them badly as well. Tennessee is decent, but they're not a national title contender!
I don't think these pundits know what they're talking about. Is Florida a national title contender? Of course! They're the defending champs, it's the same team as last year, and if you want to win it all, there's a good chance you're going to have to beat them. But to act as if they are head and shoulders above everyone else and declare a team like UNC to be the weakest #1 seed, is simply disingenuous.
Last year everyone said all the teams should go home because it was between Duke and UConn. Neither made it to the Final Four.
In 2003, everyone was crushed because Kentucky and Arizona who were clearly the two best teams in the country were on the same side of the bracket meaning they couldn't meet in the national title game. Neither made it to the Sweet 16
In 1991, UNLV was unbeatable. They lost.
In 1985, Villanova couldn't possibly beat Georgetown
In 1983, NC State had no chance of beating Houston.
The reason I'm mentioning these examples is because when the sportscasters come on and declare that a team is a lock or a clinch to go all the way...they are wrong. In a tournament like this, nothing is a lock and nothing is easy. When the best teams in the country probably have around a 15% chance of winning it all, you can't take anything for granted. If you put Florida as your national champ, that's a great choice. I won't criticize you. I'm leaning towards either North Carolina or Kansas myself but I could be wrong. I'm just trying to pick the team who I think has the best chance of winning. I picked Texas last year. They didn't even get to the Final Four. I'm just saying, don't pick your bracket based on what some expert says. Because these "experts" I've found are just as clueless as you and me when it comes to picking a champion. And I might be wrong, but the reasons these experts are giving for UNC to stuggle and Florida to romp are sadly mistaken.
But we'll find out in the next three weeks.
Midwest Regional Picks
#1 Florida-#16 Jackson State: Still not sure why Florida got the #1 overall seed. Are they the defending champs? Yes. Did I pick them to win it all this season? Yes. Do I still think they can? Absolutely! But just to seed them #1 on that basis is absurd. Ohio State definitely should be above them. But no matter, it doesn't matter that I think Fla got overseeded, they will kill Jackson State. There is no way Jackson State will beat the Gators and it will be a miracle if they keep it close. Florida 94 Jackson State 56
#8 Arizona-#9 Purdue: Arizona was a bit of a disappointment this year. Purdue has been sort of quiet this year but have been very tough and scrappy. Arizona has the talent that they can beat Purdue, but I just haven't seen that the Wildcats can put it together. I'll take the Boilermakers. Purdue 73 Arizona 72
#5 Butler-#12 Old Dominion: The dreaded #5 mid-major rule comes into effect. Generally when a mid-major is given a #5 seed they always lose in the first round. Will the curse strike Butler this year. I actually don't think so. Butler plays very methodical and simply does not turn the ball over. They are the only team in the country to have less than 10 turnovers a game. Old Dominion is a solid team but they are prone to droughts scoring and Butler's style may frustrate them to no end. So I'm picking against the rule and saying Butler will advance. Butler 69 Old Dominion 64
#4 Maryland-#13 Davidson: Until they lost to Miami, Maryland had been one of the hottest teams in the country winning seven straight conference games. But this matchup could be trouble as Davidson has been one of the best mid-major teams losing only four times. Davidson freshman Curry is very capable of leading the Wildcats to a first round upset. However, I think Maryland's talent and very fast pace will be able to tire the Wildcats. Expect the Terps to pull away late. Maryland 81 Davidson 69
#6 Notre Dame-#11 Winthrop: Everyone seeing this matchup immediately declared it an upset alert. While Winthrop is good, I'm not so sure. I'm generally always leery when an upset is announced nearly unanimously. I've noticed it generally doesn't happen. I noticed something in the Big South Tournament that concerned me as well. Winthrop has a free-throw shooting percentage of 62.7%. That is 317th in the country out of 336 teams. This is a big handicap in a close matchup and could ruin any hopes for an upset. And although Winthrop played valiantly in losing to Wisconsin, UNC, Texas A&M, and Maryland....they didn't actually win. In fact the only win they had against any team in the tournament was Old Dominion. Meanwhile, I kind of like the Irish team. I think they'll be able to frustrate Winthrop and with their 16th best FT percentage in the country should be able to stretch their lead if it comes down to the wire. Notre Dame 78 Winthrop 69
#3 Oregon-#14 Miami (Ohio): Suddenly, the Ducks look dangerous. They wiped the floor in the Pac-10 Tourney beating Arizona by 19, Cal by 18 and USC by 24 points. Miami (Ohio) will want to keep this slow and that will probably keep it from getting out of hand. But they just don't have the firepower to keep up with Oregon. Oregon 71 Miami (Ohio) 61
#7 UNLV-#10 Georgia Tech: I like this matchup for Ga. Tech. UNLV has had a good season. But I don't really see any high quality wins other than Nevada (who I'm not too keen on as you'll find out later). Meanwhile the Yellow Jackets have beaten Memphis, Duke, UNC, Boston College, and Purdue this year. I think Crittenton will lead them to a minor upset. Georgia Tech 74 UNLV 69
#2 Wisconsin-#15 Texas A&M Corpus Christi: Corpus Christi didn't even have a D1 basketball team until several years ago. Now they're in the NCAAs. Remarkable! Still, I don't expect them to be around very long. Wisconsin has been struggling down the stretch especially after the unfortunate injury to Butch. But Wisconsin led by one of the best players in the land Alando Tucker should be able to take out the Islanders pretty easily. Wisconsin 82 Texas A&M Corpus Christi 63
#8 Arizona-#9 Purdue: Arizona was a bit of a disappointment this year. Purdue has been sort of quiet this year but have been very tough and scrappy. Arizona has the talent that they can beat Purdue, but I just haven't seen that the Wildcats can put it together. I'll take the Boilermakers. Purdue 73 Arizona 72
#5 Butler-#12 Old Dominion: The dreaded #5 mid-major rule comes into effect. Generally when a mid-major is given a #5 seed they always lose in the first round. Will the curse strike Butler this year. I actually don't think so. Butler plays very methodical and simply does not turn the ball over. They are the only team in the country to have less than 10 turnovers a game. Old Dominion is a solid team but they are prone to droughts scoring and Butler's style may frustrate them to no end. So I'm picking against the rule and saying Butler will advance. Butler 69 Old Dominion 64
#4 Maryland-#13 Davidson: Until they lost to Miami, Maryland had been one of the hottest teams in the country winning seven straight conference games. But this matchup could be trouble as Davidson has been one of the best mid-major teams losing only four times. Davidson freshman Curry is very capable of leading the Wildcats to a first round upset. However, I think Maryland's talent and very fast pace will be able to tire the Wildcats. Expect the Terps to pull away late. Maryland 81 Davidson 69
#6 Notre Dame-#11 Winthrop: Everyone seeing this matchup immediately declared it an upset alert. While Winthrop is good, I'm not so sure. I'm generally always leery when an upset is announced nearly unanimously. I've noticed it generally doesn't happen. I noticed something in the Big South Tournament that concerned me as well. Winthrop has a free-throw shooting percentage of 62.7%. That is 317th in the country out of 336 teams. This is a big handicap in a close matchup and could ruin any hopes for an upset. And although Winthrop played valiantly in losing to Wisconsin, UNC, Texas A&M, and Maryland....they didn't actually win. In fact the only win they had against any team in the tournament was Old Dominion. Meanwhile, I kind of like the Irish team. I think they'll be able to frustrate Winthrop and with their 16th best FT percentage in the country should be able to stretch their lead if it comes down to the wire. Notre Dame 78 Winthrop 69
#3 Oregon-#14 Miami (Ohio): Suddenly, the Ducks look dangerous. They wiped the floor in the Pac-10 Tourney beating Arizona by 19, Cal by 18 and USC by 24 points. Miami (Ohio) will want to keep this slow and that will probably keep it from getting out of hand. But they just don't have the firepower to keep up with Oregon. Oregon 71 Miami (Ohio) 61
#7 UNLV-#10 Georgia Tech: I like this matchup for Ga. Tech. UNLV has had a good season. But I don't really see any high quality wins other than Nevada (who I'm not too keen on as you'll find out later). Meanwhile the Yellow Jackets have beaten Memphis, Duke, UNC, Boston College, and Purdue this year. I think Crittenton will lead them to a minor upset. Georgia Tech 74 UNLV 69
#2 Wisconsin-#15 Texas A&M Corpus Christi: Corpus Christi didn't even have a D1 basketball team until several years ago. Now they're in the NCAAs. Remarkable! Still, I don't expect them to be around very long. Wisconsin has been struggling down the stretch especially after the unfortunate injury to Butch. But Wisconsin led by one of the best players in the land Alando Tucker should be able to take out the Islanders pretty easily. Wisconsin 82 Texas A&M Corpus Christi 63
Play-in game prediction
While I finalize my bracket and List of Eight over the next two days, I thought I'd post my first game prediction of the tournament. I'll be doing round by round game predictions and I'll even track my record so you can see how poorly I'm doing. Enjoy!
Play-In Game: #16 Florida A&M vs #16 Niagara: These are the two teams that are playing for the privilege of losing by 30 to Kansas in the first round. Hooray for the play-in game! I can understand why Florida A&M is here but Niagara? I thought they would be a #15 seed let alone in the play-in game? Why is Jackson State not here? Whatever! Both teams have some pretty good shooters. Florida A&M seems to have the best post player in Sanders. I'm not sure if Niagara can neutralize him, so he'll probably have a good game. It looks like Niagara has more options though as five of their players average in double figures. Since they're of the run and gun style, that helps in case one or two players are cold, maybe the others will be hot. Also with similar records, Niagara played a tougher schedule and the MAAC is significantly better than the MEAC. I'll go with Niagara. Niagara 80 Florida A&M 72
Play-In Game: #16 Florida A&M vs #16 Niagara: These are the two teams that are playing for the privilege of losing by 30 to Kansas in the first round. Hooray for the play-in game! I can understand why Florida A&M is here but Niagara? I thought they would be a #15 seed let alone in the play-in game? Why is Jackson State not here? Whatever! Both teams have some pretty good shooters. Florida A&M seems to have the best post player in Sanders. I'm not sure if Niagara can neutralize him, so he'll probably have a good game. It looks like Niagara has more options though as five of their players average in double figures. Since they're of the run and gun style, that helps in case one or two players are cold, maybe the others will be hot. Also with similar records, Niagara played a tougher schedule and the MAAC is significantly better than the MEAC. I'll go with Niagara. Niagara 80 Florida A&M 72
Sunday, March 11, 2007
More bracket observations
I've done my first bracket. It's probably what I'll stick with. Maybe a few minor changes. I don't think I've ever done what I'm doing with this one. I'll let you know what I mean later.
I've also got my preliminary List of Eight. I'm not going to post it until I've finalized it because last year I was confusing. I posted one that included Memphis, looked at the bracket harder, listened to the commentators, and decided to replace Memphis with UCLA. Which was a good choice as UCLA beat Memphis. Although it was ultimately irrelevant because Florida won the whole ball of wax. I picked them as well and that's all I need to do. I get eight choices. The national champion needs to be among my eight.
I've also got my preliminary List of Eight. I'm not going to post it until I've finalized it because last year I was confusing. I posted one that included Memphis, looked at the bracket harder, listened to the commentators, and decided to replace Memphis with UCLA. Which was a good choice as UCLA beat Memphis. Although it was ultimately irrelevant because Florida won the whole ball of wax. I picked them as well and that's all I need to do. I get eight choices. The national champion needs to be among my eight.
NIT: Appalachian State-Mississippi
I noticed that the NIT bracket has been announced and Appalachian is in it. They will be playing at Mississippi on Wednesday. Mississippi is pretty good. They were in the bastard step-brother SEC West division but they did finish 8-8 in conference but got thwacked by Florida in the SEC tournament. I think Mississippi will beat ASU. Mississippi 78 Appalachian 69
My picks for the NIT Final Four are Mississippi State, West Virginia, Air Force, and Clemson with Clemson winning the NIT.
My picks for the NIT Final Four are Mississippi State, West Virginia, Air Force, and Clemson with Clemson winning the NIT.
A few of my thoughts on the bracket
Well it's official we know who's in and who's out. I actually think that it was a pretty good bracket. There's not very many incredibly dumb moves. The last three in Old Dominion, Arkansas, and Illinois can all be justified. Stanford was perhaps the most dubious choice but even that was acceptable. I was disappointed that Appalachian didn't get in but I won't complain like many App fans are. I said to even have an at-large chance they needed to get to the SoCon final. They didn't and my statement was proven correct. Here's a few of my observations.
#1 Seeds: Pretty good choices. I don't understand Florida being the #1 overall though. I think their resume was inferior to Ohio State, UNC, UCLA, and Kansas and yet they're #1 overall. Still, it's not a big deal because that's just my opinion. The bracketing didn't make a lot of sense though. If Florida is #1 overall, why are they in the Midwest? Shouldn't they have just switched regions with Florida and Ohio State?
Upset alerts: Old Dominion over Butler (the #5 Mid-Major Rule), George Washington over Vanderbilt (the George Washington rule), Illinois over Va Tech, Winthrop over Notre Dame, among others. Will I pick any or all? I don't know. Just saying.
Easy Road: Florida looks to have the easiest road to the Final Four of the #1 seeds. I also like Georgetown's section of the bracket as a #2 seed.
Hard road: The South and the West look like the tough brackets to me.
Dark Horse: What teams not seeded #4 or higher do I like? In the Midwest #10 Georgia Tech has a first round matchup with UNLV and a potential matchup with a weakening Wisconsin. In the West how about the #6 Duke Blue Devils? If they can pull their talent together, beating VCU and Pittsburgh wouldn't be that difficult. In the East, #9 Michigan State. If they can get past Marquette, they could give North Carolina a great deal of trouble. In the South, #6 Louisville is very good. It won't be easy, as to get tot he Elite Eight they will probably have to beat Texas A&M and Memphis. But they're solid.
This year's George Mason: There won't be. I think last year was more of a fluke then anything Also, with the new rule forcing NBA prospects to play a year of college, the top teams are much better than they were a year ago. As I said last week, last year's Florida team would be ranked probably 7th on my list this year. Still there a couple of teams that I think are better than George Mason last year. Butler and Southern Illinois for instance. But they are #5 and #4 seeds respectively so it wouldn't be a true Cinderella story. Winthrop? Perhaps although everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. I'll go with Creighton as a #10 seeds. They're in that brutal bottom half of the South but they've got one of the best mid-major teams in the field. So watch out.
So who is my Final Four?: Well...I don't know yet. I'm not going to pick a national champion yet because I haven't really pored over the bracket as I should. But here's my immediate idea of a Final Four.
Midwest: #1 Florida (They're the defending champion, my preseason #1, they've finally gotten into March madness form, and their bracket seems pretty much laid out for them)
West: #1 Kansas (One of the two most talented teams in the country. The Big 12 has had a tremendous amount of close games this year. I think that has helped the maturation process and they will be hard to beat in close situations.)
East: #1 North Carolina (Along with Kansas, one of the two most talented teams. Generally the most talent wins this tournament. Top half of this bracket could be tough though especially with a potential Elite Eight against Georgetown)
South: #3 Texas A&M: (Law is the most clutch player in the country. They've been in a lot of close games like Kansas. I've been bullish on them since last year. You know the drill.
My List of 8 will be posted sometime this week as I attempt the 7th straight year of picking the national champion with eight choices. Also, I'll be posting game predictions of every game so when I finish with a losing record, Robyn can make fun of me. Enjoy March Madness!
#1 Seeds: Pretty good choices. I don't understand Florida being the #1 overall though. I think their resume was inferior to Ohio State, UNC, UCLA, and Kansas and yet they're #1 overall. Still, it's not a big deal because that's just my opinion. The bracketing didn't make a lot of sense though. If Florida is #1 overall, why are they in the Midwest? Shouldn't they have just switched regions with Florida and Ohio State?
Upset alerts: Old Dominion over Butler (the #5 Mid-Major Rule), George Washington over Vanderbilt (the George Washington rule), Illinois over Va Tech, Winthrop over Notre Dame, among others. Will I pick any or all? I don't know. Just saying.
Easy Road: Florida looks to have the easiest road to the Final Four of the #1 seeds. I also like Georgetown's section of the bracket as a #2 seed.
Hard road: The South and the West look like the tough brackets to me.
Dark Horse: What teams not seeded #4 or higher do I like? In the Midwest #10 Georgia Tech has a first round matchup with UNLV and a potential matchup with a weakening Wisconsin. In the West how about the #6 Duke Blue Devils? If they can pull their talent together, beating VCU and Pittsburgh wouldn't be that difficult. In the East, #9 Michigan State. If they can get past Marquette, they could give North Carolina a great deal of trouble. In the South, #6 Louisville is very good. It won't be easy, as to get tot he Elite Eight they will probably have to beat Texas A&M and Memphis. But they're solid.
This year's George Mason: There won't be. I think last year was more of a fluke then anything Also, with the new rule forcing NBA prospects to play a year of college, the top teams are much better than they were a year ago. As I said last week, last year's Florida team would be ranked probably 7th on my list this year. Still there a couple of teams that I think are better than George Mason last year. Butler and Southern Illinois for instance. But they are #5 and #4 seeds respectively so it wouldn't be a true Cinderella story. Winthrop? Perhaps although everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. I'll go with Creighton as a #10 seeds. They're in that brutal bottom half of the South but they've got one of the best mid-major teams in the field. So watch out.
So who is my Final Four?: Well...I don't know yet. I'm not going to pick a national champion yet because I haven't really pored over the bracket as I should. But here's my immediate idea of a Final Four.
Midwest: #1 Florida (They're the defending champion, my preseason #1, they've finally gotten into March madness form, and their bracket seems pretty much laid out for them)
West: #1 Kansas (One of the two most talented teams in the country. The Big 12 has had a tremendous amount of close games this year. I think that has helped the maturation process and they will be hard to beat in close situations.)
East: #1 North Carolina (Along with Kansas, one of the two most talented teams. Generally the most talent wins this tournament. Top half of this bracket could be tough though especially with a potential Elite Eight against Georgetown)
South: #3 Texas A&M: (Law is the most clutch player in the country. They've been in a lot of close games like Kansas. I've been bullish on them since last year. You know the drill.
My List of 8 will be posted sometime this week as I attempt the 7th straight year of picking the national champion with eight choices. Also, I'll be posting game predictions of every game so when I finish with a losing record, Robyn can make fun of me. Enjoy March Madness!
Selection Sunday
The bracket is nearly upon us but we have a few more title games to shake things out. Here are my picks.
SEC: Arkansas-Florida: Another bubble could burst today if Arkansas wins. The Razorbacks may be in already especially if they can lose a close one to Florida. But if they win they take all the doubt away. They've done well to this point, but it looks to me that the defending champs are rounding back into form. The Gators win today. Florida 72 Arkansas 65
ACC: North Carolina-North Carolina State: Everyone who had NC State in the final, raise your hand. Nobody? Me either. It's been a great run for the Wolfpack and now are shockingly one game away from the NCAAs and bursting another bubble. This team is clearly a different one from earlier in the season. But can they pull together one more win against North Carolina who they beat earlier this year. I think it might be too much to ask. North Carolina has looked impressive so far in the tournament and are still playing for a #1 seed. They won't let up. The Wolfpack luck runs out today. North Carolina 84 North Carolina State 66
Southland: Northwestern State-Texas A&M Corpus-Christi: The odd minor tournament in the thick of the major ones. Texas A&M Corpus Christi has done very well since turning Division I and can now play for an NCAA berth. I think they get it. Texas A&M Corpus Christi 85 Northwestern State 77
Big 12: Texas-Kansas: I'm starting to wonder if I was wrong about Texas. Perhaps Durant is good enough to lead this team to the title. Maybe the supporting cast isn't as weak as I thought. I'll have to reevaluate after the bracket. But first, it's what should be another great game for the Big 12 Title. Kansas is still playing for the #1 seed. They along with North Carolina are the most talented teams in the country, so I think they get the job done. Kansas 76 Texas 68
Big Ten: Wisconsin-Ohio State: Wisconsin beat Ohio State by 3 this year. Ohio State won the rematch by 1. So now we have the tiebreaker to decide the Big Ten title and potentially #1 seeds. Wisconsin needs to win to have a chance at a #1 seed. Ohio State might be safe as they're probably the #1 overall seed at this point. So who wins this game? I think the Badgers have looked better in this tournament so far. This game is virtually a coin flip. But I give the slightest edge to Wisconsin. Overtime? Wisconsin 67 Ohio State 66
SEC: Arkansas-Florida: Another bubble could burst today if Arkansas wins. The Razorbacks may be in already especially if they can lose a close one to Florida. But if they win they take all the doubt away. They've done well to this point, but it looks to me that the defending champs are rounding back into form. The Gators win today. Florida 72 Arkansas 65
ACC: North Carolina-North Carolina State: Everyone who had NC State in the final, raise your hand. Nobody? Me either. It's been a great run for the Wolfpack and now are shockingly one game away from the NCAAs and bursting another bubble. This team is clearly a different one from earlier in the season. But can they pull together one more win against North Carolina who they beat earlier this year. I think it might be too much to ask. North Carolina has looked impressive so far in the tournament and are still playing for a #1 seed. They won't let up. The Wolfpack luck runs out today. North Carolina 84 North Carolina State 66
Southland: Northwestern State-Texas A&M Corpus-Christi: The odd minor tournament in the thick of the major ones. Texas A&M Corpus Christi has done very well since turning Division I and can now play for an NCAA berth. I think they get it. Texas A&M Corpus Christi 85 Northwestern State 77
Big 12: Texas-Kansas: I'm starting to wonder if I was wrong about Texas. Perhaps Durant is good enough to lead this team to the title. Maybe the supporting cast isn't as weak as I thought. I'll have to reevaluate after the bracket. But first, it's what should be another great game for the Big 12 Title. Kansas is still playing for the #1 seed. They along with North Carolina are the most talented teams in the country, so I think they get the job done. Kansas 76 Texas 68
Big Ten: Wisconsin-Ohio State: Wisconsin beat Ohio State by 3 this year. Ohio State won the rematch by 1. So now we have the tiebreaker to decide the Big Ten title and potentially #1 seeds. Wisconsin needs to win to have a chance at a #1 seed. Ohio State might be safe as they're probably the #1 overall seed at this point. So who wins this game? I think the Badgers have looked better in this tournament so far. This game is virtually a coin flip. But I give the slightest edge to Wisconsin. Overtime? Wisconsin 67 Ohio State 66
Messing with the mandolin
I've been playing through a few songs I like with my mandolin. Granted, I'm not really playing the lines. Just the chords. But I'm doing all right. I have played through Keep the Car Running several times. It's just three chords so it's pretty easy. I've been working on It's My Life some which is a bit harder as there are lots of minor chords that are hard to remember. Still can't do the verses, but I have the chorus section pretty much down pat. So I can tell I'm definitely improving. I need to learn the solo to Have a Cigar. Although that might work best as an electric guitar part. I doubt David Gilmour meant that for the mandolin. Haha.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Seems pretty hypocritical to me
This post pretty much originates from something Ashley told me several weeks ago. Awhile back, the Southern Baptist Convention passed a rule or law or declaration which effectively "banned" homosexuality if I remember correctly. Yet, there was an article on CNN talking about sexual abuse by ministers in the Baptist church. In this case they said they had no legal authority to form an independent board to investigate these crimes.
So I'm having a discussion with a guy online and he's basically agreeing with this. I wondered where the scriptural justification is for making homosexuality the #1 worst sin that can be committed. He never really answered me. But he said homosexuality was a sin (which I agree with if you're reading strictly from Christian theology standpoint). But he agreed because issues like murder and sexual abuse are against the law and gay marriage wasn't. I then pointed out the statement above not having legal authority to investigate and he agreed saying that Baptists are very decentralized and they can be part of a convention or remain independent.
I think that's an outrageous argument.
So even though they're decentralized they can band together to ban homosexuality. But when their own priests are molesting young children, they can't do anything because of legal issues? That's pretty disgraceful. The fact that some religious groups want to go around and condemn homosexual as being immoral and unnatural (although homosexuality seems to occur naturally in the animal kingdom) and scream non-stop about abortion being a 9/11 every day and being similar to the Holocaust, but then keep their Goddamned mouths shut when their own priests are hurting children who are trusted in their care, well if it doesn't make you mad, then you're not human.
Oh but the guy I was debating said they made a public statement in 2002 to discipline ministers that abused children and urged churches to cooperate with law enforcement. Of course the victims' rights advocates say that they are basically being stonewalled when they make any effort to confront the perpetrators. So that's all the Baptist Convention made. A goddamn public statement.
So I'm having a discussion with a guy online and he's basically agreeing with this. I wondered where the scriptural justification is for making homosexuality the #1 worst sin that can be committed. He never really answered me. But he said homosexuality was a sin (which I agree with if you're reading strictly from Christian theology standpoint). But he agreed because issues like murder and sexual abuse are against the law and gay marriage wasn't. I then pointed out the statement above not having legal authority to investigate and he agreed saying that Baptists are very decentralized and they can be part of a convention or remain independent.
I think that's an outrageous argument.
So even though they're decentralized they can band together to ban homosexuality. But when their own priests are molesting young children, they can't do anything because of legal issues? That's pretty disgraceful. The fact that some religious groups want to go around and condemn homosexual as being immoral and unnatural (although homosexuality seems to occur naturally in the animal kingdom) and scream non-stop about abortion being a 9/11 every day and being similar to the Holocaust, but then keep their Goddamned mouths shut when their own priests are hurting children who are trusted in their care, well if it doesn't make you mad, then you're not human.
Oh but the guy I was debating said they made a public statement in 2002 to discipline ministers that abused children and urged churches to cooperate with law enforcement. Of course the victims' rights advocates say that they are basically being stonewalled when they make any effort to confront the perpetrators. So that's all the Baptist Convention made. A goddamn public statement.
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