Observations on Florida and North Carolina

I feel like I need to respond to a lot of the "punditry" going on before the NCAA Tournament. Here are two different things I am hearing.

Florida is the defending champ and the clear favorite to repeat. They have by far the easiest road and will be a near-lock to the Final Four. Florida had turned it on and are now in postseason form and will cut down the nets when all is said and done.

North Carolina is clearly the weakest #1 seed. They are horribly inconsistent. Tyler Hansbrough is a shell of his former self wearing the mask after Henderson broke his nose. They've got to turn it around or they will have no chance of making the Final Four.

I would like to ask a question....What the fuck are these people talking about?

Before I go into my diatribe, I will point out that Florida was my preseason #1. I will also point out that with the bracket set, I am currently thinking of picking North Carolina. That is not final but just to get it out of the way, that's who I'm leaning towards now.

Here's my main problem concerning Florida. Did everyone forget what was happening right before the SEC Tournament. Where Florida looked awful in losses to Vandy, LSU, and Tennessee. Let me compare the losses of Florida to the losses of North Carolina.

Florida: Kansas (loss to a #1 seed in overtime. Not bad), Florida State (not the greatest but it's a rivalry game so it's excusable), Vanderbilt (by 13 to a team that was probably slotted too high at #6), LSU(by 10 and it was at times a lot more. LSU sucked this year and was missing their best player in this game), Tennessee (by 10 and not as close as the score indicated.)

North Carolina: Gonzaga, twice to Virginia Tech (odd but they got a #5 seed so it's not unforgivable), NC State (ok that one is), Maryland (a #4 seed), Georgia Tech ( #10 seed).

So even though Florida has less losses to UNC, they have one more loss to a team not in the NCAAs. Here's another stat. North Carolina nonconference wins over teams in Tourney: 6. Florida? 1

Suddenly Florida beats Kentucky in the regular season finale, then sweeps through the SEC Tourney beating Georgia, Missisippi, and Arkansas and now they're hands down the favorite? I don't buy it. And the statements about it being an easy bracket are preposterous. Florida will have to play Arizona or Purdue in the 2nd round. That won't be an easy victory. They could play Maryland just to get to the Elite 8. They could play Notre Dame, Ga Tech, Wisconsin or Oregon for the Final Four. These aren't scrubs. Everyone is not taking into account how difficult it is to win the national title. Is Florida better than last year's team? I think so. But guess what? So is everybody else! This year is much stronger competition than last year. Don't expect the #1 seeds to get shut out of the Final Four like last year.

Now for my current case for Carolina. Is Hansbrough constricted with his mask? He seems to be. But guess what...this ain't a one man team. Carolina has at least four potential NBA lottery picks on their team. They have guys who dont even play that could start for most of the teams in the country. Along with Kansas they are one of the two most talented teams down the roster. And it doesn't happen every year, but the most talented team generally does win it all. People say North Carolina is inconsistent. The statistics don't totally support that conclusion. They're about average. And if you want to talk about consistency, I have a stat that says Florida is the 323rd most consistent team in the country. That's in the bottom 15. I watched Florida get killed by LSU, a team who went 17-15 this year and didn't even have their best player. And they got killed! And Tennessee beat them badly as well. Tennessee is decent, but they're not a national title contender!

I don't think these pundits know what they're talking about. Is Florida a national title contender? Of course! They're the defending champs, it's the same team as last year, and if you want to win it all, there's a good chance you're going to have to beat them. But to act as if they are head and shoulders above everyone else and declare a team like UNC to be the weakest #1 seed, is simply disingenuous.

Last year everyone said all the teams should go home because it was between Duke and UConn. Neither made it to the Final Four.
In 2003, everyone was crushed because Kentucky and Arizona who were clearly the two best teams in the country were on the same side of the bracket meaning they couldn't meet in the national title game. Neither made it to the Sweet 16
In 1991, UNLV was unbeatable. They lost.
In 1985, Villanova couldn't possibly beat Georgetown
In 1983, NC State had no chance of beating Houston.

The reason I'm mentioning these examples is because when the sportscasters come on and declare that a team is a lock or a clinch to go all the way...they are wrong. In a tournament like this, nothing is a lock and nothing is easy. When the best teams in the country probably have around a 15% chance of winning it all, you can't take anything for granted. If you put Florida as your national champ, that's a great choice. I won't criticize you. I'm leaning towards either North Carolina or Kansas myself but I could be wrong. I'm just trying to pick the team who I think has the best chance of winning. I picked Texas last year. They didn't even get to the Final Four. I'm just saying, don't pick your bracket based on what some expert says. Because these "experts" I've found are just as clueless as you and me when it comes to picking a champion. And I might be wrong, but the reasons these experts are giving for UNC to stuggle and Florida to romp are sadly mistaken.

But we'll find out in the next three weeks.