Sorry I didn't post how I thought games would go. Life has been busy so I haven't had much time. Hopefully there will be time where I can reflect on that and talk more but for now let's check out my List of 8 and how my teams are looking.
Duke: Clearly a bad choice. Never looked good in a nailbiter against Belmont and then in a loss to West Virginia. Clearly a team that had no frontcourt presence to balance the perimeter attack was not a legitimate contender. Fortunately that is my only bad choice thus far.
Kansas: No issues. Blew out Portland State and easily dispatched UNLV. The way the bracket is breaking down seems to be in Kansas's favor so I am just as bullish.
Louisville: Was wondering if this was a bad pick as well but after a 30 point shellacking of Oklahoma, the Cardinals are looking pretty good. I like their chances to advance at least one more round.
Memphis: Nearly let it slip away against Mississippi State today. But it's survive and advance. And to get to San Antonio, they will have to survive as all the tough teams are still alive in the South bracket. Need to start hitting free throws.
North Carolina: Still think think they are the weakest #1 seed. But so far they have been impressive.
Texas: Let Miami give them a scare but they are still alive. Need to kick play up a notch.
UCLA: Texas A&M nearly pulled it off but UCLA survived and now seem to have an easy road to San Antonio as their bracket has been busted.
Wisconsin: Have looked outstanding with wins against Cal State Fullerton and Kansas State. No reason to doubt their chances thus far.
So their are nine teams left who can break my streak.
Washington State: I should have included them. Have looked absolutely dominating with humiliations of Winthrop and Notre Dame. North Carolina better be ready to play.
Tennessee: Escaped against Butler but looked weak at times. I think Louisville ends their chances next round. If not, UNC or Wazzu will.
Villanova: Are here because Clemson blew an 18 point lead and Siena played terribly. Don't expect Kansas to be so accomodating.
Davidson: Stephen Curry has scored 30, 40, and 30 in his first three NCAA Tourney games. It's been a magic ride for Davidson, but I think he scores a tournament low for him as Davidson is knocked out by Wisconsin.
Michigan State: The Spartans have looked good so far. I think Memphis knocks them out but if Memphis can't hit free throws, the Spartans can win. Probably the weakest team left in the South though.
Stanford: Escaped against a tough Marquette game. Could beat Texas in a virtual coin flip game.
Western Kentucky: Needed a miracle three against Drake and nearly let San Diego come back to bea them. The Hilltoppers go out against UCLA.
Xavier: Xavier has looked good so far and their chances seem to have improved as they don't have to play Duke. Of course West Virginia is playing well so maybe they wanted Duke.
West Virginia: Xavier and WVU is a coinflip game. Either team could make the Elite 8. But I figure they play UCLA the next round and lose.
So my list is looking pretty solid so far. Obviously I should have had a team like Washington State or Stanford instead of Duke. Oh well. Here is how I would rank the 16 teams remaining on quality. Not based on chances of winning it all.
1. Kansas
2. UCLA
3. Wisconsin
4. Memphis
5. North Carolina
6. Washington State
7. Louisville
8. Texas
9. Stanford
10. Michigan State
11. Tennessee
12. Xavier
13. West Virginia
14. Davidson
15. Villanova
16. Western Kentucky
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
List of Eight: 2008
It is time to reveal the 8th Annual List of 8. Before we start here’s a recap of what the List of 8 as published in my blog last year.
What is the List of Eight? Back in 2001, my father said that the NCAA Tournament was completely random and was not an accurate representation of the best team. I disagreed saying while the best team didn't always win, the team that emerged victorious deserved to be called national champion. I also said it wasn't as much of a crapshoot as he believed. He challenged me that to pick eight teams at the start of the tournament out of the possible 64/65. He said that he would take the remaining field. That year, four teams from my list made it to the Final Four. Thus the challenge was born. This year I will be going for the eighth straight year of winning this challenge. Here are the basic rules in case you didn't totally understand.1. I pick eight teams. One of them MUST win the national title for me to declare victory. If seven of eight lose in the first round, it is not fair to mock me for I have one team remaining. Likewise, if I have seven of eight teams left, it would make no sense to brag too much, as the one remaining wild card can defeat me in the challenge. There are no bonus points for how far they advance. A team from the list MUST win the title or I lose.2. These are not necessarily who I think are the best teams. Depending on matchups, I may choose teams I feel to be generally inferior but who may have a favorable draw.3. There is no maximum or minimum number of teams I can choose in each regional. I may choose zero in a given region. I may choose eight in a region. It is my choice. However, as I am doing this year, I will generally pick two from each region. This seems to be a way to "diversify" for a favorable outcome.
Now that the rules are out of the way, time to reveal the list from which the NCAA champion will emerge.
Duke 27-5 #2 West
Why they could win it: Because they’re ready for blood after last year’s embarrassing first round exit against VCU. With Coach K at the helm, would you bet on a second straight early exit? Duke has a deadly three point shooting touch when they’re hot and can frustrate the best offense with their turnover forcing defense.
Why they won’t win it: Duke struggled down the stretch going 5-4, so teams may have figured out the way to beat them. Since they lost Josh McRoberts to the NBA, the Blue Devils can be exploited for lack of size against the wrong opponent. If this happens in a game where Duke is ice cold, it could be a very early exit.
Kansas 31-3 #1 Midwest
Why they could win it: I think they’re the best team in the nation. With Chalmers, Arthur and Co and Bill Self coaching, this is my favorite to win it all. The only team to have a top 3 offense and defense (1st in Offense and 3rd in Defense according to Ken Pomeroy). If aren’t ready to play at the beginning, then you will be down bunches early.
Why they won’t win it: I think the team is so good that they get bored and lose focus. If they do and play a team that doesn’t back down and can stay in it, they could lose. But the underdog will need to get the crowd behind them. If it’s a Kansas crowd, I don’t see the Jayhawks getting knocked out before San Antonio.
Louisville 24-8 #3 East
Why they could win it: Rick Pitino is one of the best coaches in the game. The draw is favorable as I think Tennessee is the weakest #2 seed. One of the strongest defenses in the nation.
Why they won’t win it: Probably the weakest offensive team among the major contenders. Some very concerning losses in the regular season such as Cincinnati and Seton Hall.
Memphis 33-1 #1 South
Why they could win it: After two straight years of just missing the list, the Tigers storm on this year. This is a loaded team and nearly didn’t break a sweat during the regular season. Ferocious defense, outstanding rebounding and two of the top 10 players in the nation. What’s not to like?
Why they won’t win it: Their free shooting for instance. They were one of the bottom five in the NATION. And it cost them against Tennessee. Free throws don’t matter if you’re winning by 20. But Memphis will have at least one tough game on their way to a title. And if they’re not hitting free throws, they are in trouble. The three point shooting is also inconsistent. Expect to see lots of zone against this team. Are they ready since they have played in such a weak conference all season long.
North Carolina 32-2 #1 East
Why they could win it: I think Michael Beasley is the best player in the country. But Tyler Hansbrough is a very close 2nd. And the rest of the cast is stellar. Not sure any team other than Kansas or Memphis is comfortable playing at the pace the Tar Heels will be playing at.
Why they won’t win it: I can’t put my finger on it…but this team doesn’t really look like a 2 loss team to me. They’ve done really well, but I am not convinced they are on the same level as the other #1 seeds. Roy Williams has shown he can win the big one, but sometimes as with Georgetown last year, he gets completely outcoached. Like Kansas, I think this team sometimes thinks they are better than they really are. Brutal draw with a potential game against Indiana in the second round. Inconsistent on defense.
Texas 28-6 #2 South
Why they could win it: Having D.J. Augustin helps. The only team to beat both Kansas and UCLA. They’re one of the best offenses in the country and although they might be the weakest defense amongst the contenders, they are improving.
Why they won’t win it: I think Rick Barnes is a heck of a recruiter. I’m not sure if he is one of the elite coaches. They’re weak in rebounding. If you can control the guards, you have a chance to win.
UCLA 31-3 #1 West
Why they could win it: Well Florida can’t beat them. The Gators have knocked the Bruins out the last two years. No Gator bait this time. Kevin Love is a strong candidate for Player of the Year as a freshman. The Bruins won the Pac-10 by 3 full games. Their defense can make the best team look like a bad high school JV squad.
Why they won’t win it: Control their three point shooting and get the starters in trouble and you have a chance. Easier said than done but that’s the way it is.
Wisconsin 29-4 #3
Why they could win it: How is this team a #3 seed? They won the Big 10 regular season and postseason tournament. Bo Ryan is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and with the best defense in the country and a frustratingly slow pace, the Badgers just get the job done.
Why they won’t win it: Play fast. The Badgers don’t like it. They allowed more than 70 points three times this season. They lost all 3. The Blowout Rule may be in effect. Teams generally don’t win national titles with losses of 20 or more in the regular season. As Duke beat them 82-58, that is a concern.
Now that the teams have been selected, let’s look at a few I considered but eliminated for various reasons.
Georgetown: Tough draw with Kansas and Wisconsin. Also not sure if this team is as Final Four caliber as last year’s was. Probably the team most dangerous of ruining the list though.
Washington State: A team that loves to play slow and is good at. But if they get behind, it’s hard for them to come back playing that way.
Stanford: Stanford is certainly capable of going on a run. Might have made the list but the matchups look hard throughout their region especially with a potential second round date with Marquette. Watch out for the Cardinal though.
Tennessee: Some will be shocked I didn’t include them. I’m just not sold. They’re a good team but there are better choices in my view.
Marquette: Similar to Stanford in they are very good but difficult matchups await. Kentucky will be a tough out. The most dangerous seed lower than 4 in the field.
Clemson: The Tigers have proven they could be a dark horse pick with three outstanding games against UNC. But in a bracket with Kansas, I just don’t see them going very far. But don’t be surprised if they make a run.
What is the List of Eight? Back in 2001, my father said that the NCAA Tournament was completely random and was not an accurate representation of the best team. I disagreed saying while the best team didn't always win, the team that emerged victorious deserved to be called national champion. I also said it wasn't as much of a crapshoot as he believed. He challenged me that to pick eight teams at the start of the tournament out of the possible 64/65. He said that he would take the remaining field. That year, four teams from my list made it to the Final Four. Thus the challenge was born. This year I will be going for the eighth straight year of winning this challenge. Here are the basic rules in case you didn't totally understand.1. I pick eight teams. One of them MUST win the national title for me to declare victory. If seven of eight lose in the first round, it is not fair to mock me for I have one team remaining. Likewise, if I have seven of eight teams left, it would make no sense to brag too much, as the one remaining wild card can defeat me in the challenge. There are no bonus points for how far they advance. A team from the list MUST win the title or I lose.2. These are not necessarily who I think are the best teams. Depending on matchups, I may choose teams I feel to be generally inferior but who may have a favorable draw.3. There is no maximum or minimum number of teams I can choose in each regional. I may choose zero in a given region. I may choose eight in a region. It is my choice. However, as I am doing this year, I will generally pick two from each region. This seems to be a way to "diversify" for a favorable outcome.
Now that the rules are out of the way, time to reveal the list from which the NCAA champion will emerge.
Duke 27-5 #2 West
Why they could win it: Because they’re ready for blood after last year’s embarrassing first round exit against VCU. With Coach K at the helm, would you bet on a second straight early exit? Duke has a deadly three point shooting touch when they’re hot and can frustrate the best offense with their turnover forcing defense.
Why they won’t win it: Duke struggled down the stretch going 5-4, so teams may have figured out the way to beat them. Since they lost Josh McRoberts to the NBA, the Blue Devils can be exploited for lack of size against the wrong opponent. If this happens in a game where Duke is ice cold, it could be a very early exit.
Kansas 31-3 #1 Midwest
Why they could win it: I think they’re the best team in the nation. With Chalmers, Arthur and Co and Bill Self coaching, this is my favorite to win it all. The only team to have a top 3 offense and defense (1st in Offense and 3rd in Defense according to Ken Pomeroy). If aren’t ready to play at the beginning, then you will be down bunches early.
Why they won’t win it: I think the team is so good that they get bored and lose focus. If they do and play a team that doesn’t back down and can stay in it, they could lose. But the underdog will need to get the crowd behind them. If it’s a Kansas crowd, I don’t see the Jayhawks getting knocked out before San Antonio.
Louisville 24-8 #3 East
Why they could win it: Rick Pitino is one of the best coaches in the game. The draw is favorable as I think Tennessee is the weakest #2 seed. One of the strongest defenses in the nation.
Why they won’t win it: Probably the weakest offensive team among the major contenders. Some very concerning losses in the regular season such as Cincinnati and Seton Hall.
Memphis 33-1 #1 South
Why they could win it: After two straight years of just missing the list, the Tigers storm on this year. This is a loaded team and nearly didn’t break a sweat during the regular season. Ferocious defense, outstanding rebounding and two of the top 10 players in the nation. What’s not to like?
Why they won’t win it: Their free shooting for instance. They were one of the bottom five in the NATION. And it cost them against Tennessee. Free throws don’t matter if you’re winning by 20. But Memphis will have at least one tough game on their way to a title. And if they’re not hitting free throws, they are in trouble. The three point shooting is also inconsistent. Expect to see lots of zone against this team. Are they ready since they have played in such a weak conference all season long.
North Carolina 32-2 #1 East
Why they could win it: I think Michael Beasley is the best player in the country. But Tyler Hansbrough is a very close 2nd. And the rest of the cast is stellar. Not sure any team other than Kansas or Memphis is comfortable playing at the pace the Tar Heels will be playing at.
Why they won’t win it: I can’t put my finger on it…but this team doesn’t really look like a 2 loss team to me. They’ve done really well, but I am not convinced they are on the same level as the other #1 seeds. Roy Williams has shown he can win the big one, but sometimes as with Georgetown last year, he gets completely outcoached. Like Kansas, I think this team sometimes thinks they are better than they really are. Brutal draw with a potential game against Indiana in the second round. Inconsistent on defense.
Texas 28-6 #2 South
Why they could win it: Having D.J. Augustin helps. The only team to beat both Kansas and UCLA. They’re one of the best offenses in the country and although they might be the weakest defense amongst the contenders, they are improving.
Why they won’t win it: I think Rick Barnes is a heck of a recruiter. I’m not sure if he is one of the elite coaches. They’re weak in rebounding. If you can control the guards, you have a chance to win.
UCLA 31-3 #1 West
Why they could win it: Well Florida can’t beat them. The Gators have knocked the Bruins out the last two years. No Gator bait this time. Kevin Love is a strong candidate for Player of the Year as a freshman. The Bruins won the Pac-10 by 3 full games. Their defense can make the best team look like a bad high school JV squad.
Why they won’t win it: Control their three point shooting and get the starters in trouble and you have a chance. Easier said than done but that’s the way it is.
Wisconsin 29-4 #3
Why they could win it: How is this team a #3 seed? They won the Big 10 regular season and postseason tournament. Bo Ryan is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and with the best defense in the country and a frustratingly slow pace, the Badgers just get the job done.
Why they won’t win it: Play fast. The Badgers don’t like it. They allowed more than 70 points three times this season. They lost all 3. The Blowout Rule may be in effect. Teams generally don’t win national titles with losses of 20 or more in the regular season. As Duke beat them 82-58, that is a concern.
Now that the teams have been selected, let’s look at a few I considered but eliminated for various reasons.
Georgetown: Tough draw with Kansas and Wisconsin. Also not sure if this team is as Final Four caliber as last year’s was. Probably the team most dangerous of ruining the list though.
Washington State: A team that loves to play slow and is good at. But if they get behind, it’s hard for them to come back playing that way.
Stanford: Stanford is certainly capable of going on a run. Might have made the list but the matchups look hard throughout their region especially with a potential second round date with Marquette. Watch out for the Cardinal though.
Tennessee: Some will be shocked I didn’t include them. I’m just not sold. They’re a good team but there are better choices in my view.
Marquette: Similar to Stanford in they are very good but difficult matchups await. Kentucky will be a tough out. The most dangerous seed lower than 4 in the field.
Clemson: The Tigers have proven they could be a dark horse pick with three outstanding games against UNC. But in a bracket with Kansas, I just don’t see them going very far. But don’t be surprised if they make a run.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
MARCH MADNESS
Just realized I haven't been updating my blog as of late. What happens when you get so busy. But what better time then the start of the NCAA Tournament? I'll of course be picking my annual List of 8 and picking every game from here on out. Just to get started, let's predict Tuesday's 64/65 game.
Mount St. Mary's vs Coppin State: Not really sure how Mount St. Mary's ended up in this game. They're clearly one of the weaker teams in the tournament. I would have thought Mississippi Valley State would have been here, but I guess the committee is leery of putting two historically black colleges in the play-in, even though both the MEAC and the SWAC are generally the two worst conferences in the country. Oh well. Coppin State certainly went on a run at the end of the season winning 12 of their last 13. Still, Coppin is the first 20 loss team to make the tourney. I doubt they will be the first to win a game especially because I think Mount St. Mary's is significantly better. Expect an easy win for Mount St. Mary's as they advance to be Tar Heel fodder.
Mount St. Mary's 70 Coppin State 58
Mount St. Mary's vs Coppin State: Not really sure how Mount St. Mary's ended up in this game. They're clearly one of the weaker teams in the tournament. I would have thought Mississippi Valley State would have been here, but I guess the committee is leery of putting two historically black colleges in the play-in, even though both the MEAC and the SWAC are generally the two worst conferences in the country. Oh well. Coppin State certainly went on a run at the end of the season winning 12 of their last 13. Still, Coppin is the first 20 loss team to make the tourney. I doubt they will be the first to win a game especially because I think Mount St. Mary's is significantly better. Expect an easy win for Mount St. Mary's as they advance to be Tar Heel fodder.
Mount St. Mary's 70 Coppin State 58
Saturday, February 23, 2008
What a relief
Module 2 (of 3) of my first year in the MBA program has ended. I have heard the third module is easy. Hopefully so. The last one nearly killed me! Haha!
Exciting day in college basketball ahead. Bracket Busters where the mid-majors shine! MEMPHIS-TENNESSEE! And even more importantly, New Jersey Institute of Technology goes for the big goose egg. If they lose to 13-14 Utah Valley State (which is likely) they will finish the season 0-29. Congrats guys!
Speaking of Memphis-Tennessee, I don't think the game will be as close as the pundits are predicting. I say Memphis wins by double digits. Tennessee is deserving of their #2 ranking based on their record, but there a lot of teams who would beat them in a one game scenario. Barring a performance I'm not expecting today, I don't think they'll go far in March. Memphis is much more likely to be a champion although there are a few teams (Kansas and UCLA) I think are better. Memphis's offense is a little weak at times and their free throw shooting is abysmal. Can a team that can't shoot 60% from the stripe be a national champion? I'm concerned.
Appalachian and William & Mary taking part in Bracket Busters today. App will be taking on Niagara and the Tribe host Loyola Chicago. I'm disappointed with W&M as I thought they had a good chance for a top 4 seed in the Colonial which would give them a first round bye. After a three game losing streak to Northeastern, UNC-W, and Towson, and with games remaining against George Mason and VCU, I have a feeeling that chance is over.
Exciting day in college basketball ahead. Bracket Busters where the mid-majors shine! MEMPHIS-TENNESSEE! And even more importantly, New Jersey Institute of Technology goes for the big goose egg. If they lose to 13-14 Utah Valley State (which is likely) they will finish the season 0-29. Congrats guys!
Speaking of Memphis-Tennessee, I don't think the game will be as close as the pundits are predicting. I say Memphis wins by double digits. Tennessee is deserving of their #2 ranking based on their record, but there a lot of teams who would beat them in a one game scenario. Barring a performance I'm not expecting today, I don't think they'll go far in March. Memphis is much more likely to be a champion although there are a few teams (Kansas and UCLA) I think are better. Memphis's offense is a little weak at times and their free throw shooting is abysmal. Can a team that can't shoot 60% from the stripe be a national champion? I'm concerned.
Appalachian and William & Mary taking part in Bracket Busters today. App will be taking on Niagara and the Tribe host Loyola Chicago. I'm disappointed with W&M as I thought they had a good chance for a top 4 seed in the Colonial which would give them a first round bye. After a three game losing streak to Northeastern, UNC-W, and Towson, and with games remaining against George Mason and VCU, I have a feeeling that chance is over.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Oscar Ballot Time
I'm finished with my second set of exams. And Ashley has been harassing me so I have to embarass her yet again. It's time for our 962nd Annual Oscar Pool. I'm on a 961 year winning streak. So let's go to my picks!
Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Cohen
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress: Julie Christie
Animated Film: Ratatouille
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett
Original Screenplay: Juno
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Foreign Language Film: Beaufort
Art Direction: Atonement
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Documentary: Sicko
Documentary Short: Freeheld
Makeup: La Vie En Rose
Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Score: Atonement
Song: Falling Slowly
Short Animated Film:Even Pigeons Go to heaven
Live Action Short: The Tonto Woman
Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Visual Effects: Transformers
Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Cohen
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress: Julie Christie
Animated Film: Ratatouille
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett
Original Screenplay: Juno
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Foreign Language Film: Beaufort
Art Direction: Atonement
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Documentary: Sicko
Documentary Short: Freeheld
Makeup: La Vie En Rose
Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Score: Atonement
Song: Falling Slowly
Short Animated Film:Even Pigeons Go to heaven
Live Action Short: The Tonto Woman
Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Visual Effects: Transformers
Thursday, February 14, 2008
I like saying words like McGuffins in class
I love how everyone is so quick to make quick judgments during case discussions during our classes. I'm 23 years old and sometimes I feel like I'm the only one who is actually trying to read between the lines.
Of course I'm a self-righteous ass so that could have something to do with it.
I have an interview with an investment bank tomorrow. Two interviews in a week? Perhaps this internship search will pay off after all.
Another mass shooting in America, this time at Northern Illinois University. At least six dead. I am so sick and tired of the politicians not doing anything to try to solve this problem. I'm not saying that guns should be outlawed (unlike my brother) but steps need to be taken to at least keep firearms out of the hands of mentally ill people. I am not sure if this situation makes me cry so hard it makes me mad, or if it makes me so mad I cry. One of the two.
The Obama rally was interesting. Not really great for a vantage point. But it doesn't change my opinion of him. Hopefully he will be the Democratic nominee and then we can have Obama-McCain. I would vote for McCain today but it's a slight edge and there is a lot of time left in the ballgame. And maybe Bloomberg will run! Looking less likely though. Oh well.
Of course I'm a self-righteous ass so that could have something to do with it.
I have an interview with an investment bank tomorrow. Two interviews in a week? Perhaps this internship search will pay off after all.
Another mass shooting in America, this time at Northern Illinois University. At least six dead. I am so sick and tired of the politicians not doing anything to try to solve this problem. I'm not saying that guns should be outlawed (unlike my brother) but steps need to be taken to at least keep firearms out of the hands of mentally ill people. I am not sure if this situation makes me cry so hard it makes me mad, or if it makes me so mad I cry. One of the two.
The Obama rally was interesting. Not really great for a vantage point. But it doesn't change my opinion of him. Hopefully he will be the Democratic nominee and then we can have Obama-McCain. I would vote for McCain today but it's a slight edge and there is a lot of time left in the ballgame. And maybe Bloomberg will run! Looking less likely though. Oh well.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
I'm a little inconsistent
I blame school for the inconsistency of my blog. I try to do better but then we get about a dozen assignments to turn in at the last minute. Oh well!
How about that Super Bowl? I did pick the Giants to beat the spread but I am still surprised they ruined the Pats' season. I'm just not ready for a world where Eli is a Super Bowl champ. It's not right!
I have an interview with IBM tomorrow. Wish me luck.
Is the Running Grammy Diary coming to an end after two spectacular years? I fear so. Because I have just been informed that Barack Obama will be speaking in Virginia Beach tonight. So I may be attending that. Sorry Robyn! It seems there will be no irreverent and irrelevant comments about the Grammys this year.
I went and bought a suit at S&K yesterday (mainly to get rid of a giftcard) and it was one of the more unusual experiences I have had in awhile. The salesmen seemed more like used car salesmen than usual. And also when I was buying my merchandise, the apparent manager kept treating the man who was ringing me up (and was not very young mind you) like an incompetent. Apparently I got a percentage off because he started using a coupon that I did not even bring into the store. And the manager was threatening to kick the guy's butt if he made a mistake again. And I'm not sure if he was joking. I would laugh at his comments but it was more out of nervousness than anything. The manager seemed overall pretty rude, but I must endorse that if you want to buy a suit and get some weird theatre along with the purchase, than S&K in Williamsburg is the place to be.
I played the Wii last night for the first time. It was quite fun! Although I suck at bowling. And golf. And baseball. And I'm ok at tennis as long as I don't play Sammi.
Ok time to take a shower. Later! Hopefully not till next week this time.
How about that Super Bowl? I did pick the Giants to beat the spread but I am still surprised they ruined the Pats' season. I'm just not ready for a world where Eli is a Super Bowl champ. It's not right!
I have an interview with IBM tomorrow. Wish me luck.
Is the Running Grammy Diary coming to an end after two spectacular years? I fear so. Because I have just been informed that Barack Obama will be speaking in Virginia Beach tonight. So I may be attending that. Sorry Robyn! It seems there will be no irreverent and irrelevant comments about the Grammys this year.
I went and bought a suit at S&K yesterday (mainly to get rid of a giftcard) and it was one of the more unusual experiences I have had in awhile. The salesmen seemed more like used car salesmen than usual. And also when I was buying my merchandise, the apparent manager kept treating the man who was ringing me up (and was not very young mind you) like an incompetent. Apparently I got a percentage off because he started using a coupon that I did not even bring into the store. And the manager was threatening to kick the guy's butt if he made a mistake again. And I'm not sure if he was joking. I would laugh at his comments but it was more out of nervousness than anything. The manager seemed overall pretty rude, but I must endorse that if you want to buy a suit and get some weird theatre along with the purchase, than S&K in Williamsburg is the place to be.
I played the Wii last night for the first time. It was quite fun! Although I suck at bowling. And golf. And baseball. And I'm ok at tennis as long as I don't play Sammi.
Ok time to take a shower. Later! Hopefully not till next week this time.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
The B in MBA probably doesn't stand for Blog
Hey, the program gets pretty busy sometimes. I can't help it.
Went and saw Rambo with Christoph last night. Oscar nominations are guaranteed for next year.
William & Mary is now tied for 2nd in the Colonial after winning 8 of their last 9. And the game I went to see was the loss. Clearly I am bad luck.
Appalachian isn't doing too bad either. They've won 9 of 10 and are tied for first in their division. Davidson is still the class of the SoCon though.
And my new favorite team, New Jersey Institute of Technology, (or as I like to call them, NJIT), has yet to win a game. They're 0-23 with only six games remaining. The smallest margin of defeat they have had is 9 on two different occasions. Their best chance for victory comes tomorrow though! At home vs 5-20 Longwood. GET PUMPED!
And it's time for my Super Bowl prediction I believe. I think I'm 7-3 against the spread so far but I'm too lazy to look. I think the Patriots are going to win. But that's not the question. Will they win by more than the spread which is currently 12 points. I say no. The Giants have been on a roll as of late and I expect the Giants to play hard while the Patriots will be just trying to finish the perfect season after a long struggle. I say no blowout. Giants (+12) over the Patriots.
After a 9.46% gain in two days and a 21.54% gain in ten days, my portfolio is now in positive territory for the year. I have broken my all time record for portfolio performance gain by percentage twice in this span. I still need to gain 41.14% to get back to my all time high, but this is a nice turn of events. I've been trimming some of my homebuilders and other related stocks of late. I took a big loss on Hovnanian but also a nice gain on Comstock Homebuilders. There are probably a few more that I will sell tomorrow as I am less confident than I once was in their prospects.
Went and saw Rambo with Christoph last night. Oscar nominations are guaranteed for next year.
William & Mary is now tied for 2nd in the Colonial after winning 8 of their last 9. And the game I went to see was the loss. Clearly I am bad luck.
Appalachian isn't doing too bad either. They've won 9 of 10 and are tied for first in their division. Davidson is still the class of the SoCon though.
And my new favorite team, New Jersey Institute of Technology, (or as I like to call them, NJIT), has yet to win a game. They're 0-23 with only six games remaining. The smallest margin of defeat they have had is 9 on two different occasions. Their best chance for victory comes tomorrow though! At home vs 5-20 Longwood. GET PUMPED!
And it's time for my Super Bowl prediction I believe. I think I'm 7-3 against the spread so far but I'm too lazy to look. I think the Patriots are going to win. But that's not the question. Will they win by more than the spread which is currently 12 points. I say no. The Giants have been on a roll as of late and I expect the Giants to play hard while the Patriots will be just trying to finish the perfect season after a long struggle. I say no blowout. Giants (+12) over the Patriots.
After a 9.46% gain in two days and a 21.54% gain in ten days, my portfolio is now in positive territory for the year. I have broken my all time record for portfolio performance gain by percentage twice in this span. I still need to gain 41.14% to get back to my all time high, but this is a nice turn of events. I've been trimming some of my homebuilders and other related stocks of late. I took a big loss on Hovnanian but also a nice gain on Comstock Homebuilders. There are probably a few more that I will sell tomorrow as I am less confident than I once was in their prospects.
Monday, January 28, 2008
I haven't a clue
The Financial Times came out with their MBA rankings today. William & Mary moved up to a tie for 71st. I thought that was cool. It was even better because the other two schools I considered Vanderbilt and Wake Forest, were ranked lower. Vandy simply didn't accept me and moved down to a tie for 76th. Meanwhile Wake, which I have covered before in this space, actually fell out of the rankings. I'm certainly not a ranking-centric person, but that makes me feel pretty good.
Although Rice is still above us. Maybe I should have applied there! Haha!
The Ethical Imperialists begin their basketball season tonight. I sense victory. But my sense of smell is a little off.
And that name is in honor of Professor Ed Felton. I wonder if he would think it is ethical that I named my team that.
So I was wrong and I had my fourth straight positive day for my portfolio. Although Meritage Homes results sucked and lost all its gain in after hours. But Hovnanian was up 20% and Building Materials up 11% so it was a good day.
Well I gotta get ready to beat up the evil accounting team. Later!
Although Rice is still above us. Maybe I should have applied there! Haha!
The Ethical Imperialists begin their basketball season tonight. I sense victory. But my sense of smell is a little off.
And that name is in honor of Professor Ed Felton. I wonder if he would think it is ethical that I named my team that.
So I was wrong and I had my fourth straight positive day for my portfolio. Although Meritage Homes results sucked and lost all its gain in after hours. But Hovnanian was up 20% and Building Materials up 11% so it was a good day.
Well I gotta get ready to beat up the evil accounting team. Later!
Almost Forgot I Had a Blog
Can't talk for very long but thought I'd update real quick.
I bought an mp3 player yesterday. I'm glad I could make it to the 21st century.
I just called one of my professors by his last name. And I didn't say professor either. I'm such a moron.
Our first 5 on 5 basketball game is today. I think we're playing those lousy accountants. God do I hate them! Actually I don't. One of my roommates is one. But I will hate them from about 8-9 tonight.
Did I say I had seen all the Best Picture nominees now? Let's rank them.
5. Atonement
4. Michael Clayton
3. Juno
1b. There Will Be Blood
1a. No Country For Old Men
Dr. Z on SI has picked the Giants in the Super Bowl. I mean....if you really think so.
My stocks have been rebounding lately...ever since I became single. Coincidence? Yeah completely. And the Asian market is looking very weak today. We'll see how that goes.
I can't remember if I posted, but one of our dachshunds at home died. Elvis, the youngest. I don't think he had been sick but he was found behind our woodpile the other day. He was a very sweet dog, although annoying at times. I wish I hadn't pushed him away so much out of my face now. I just hope that he felt loved and he will be sorely missed.
It looks like it's time for some exciting marketing. Later.
I bought an mp3 player yesterday. I'm glad I could make it to the 21st century.
I just called one of my professors by his last name. And I didn't say professor either. I'm such a moron.
Our first 5 on 5 basketball game is today. I think we're playing those lousy accountants. God do I hate them! Actually I don't. One of my roommates is one. But I will hate them from about 8-9 tonight.
Did I say I had seen all the Best Picture nominees now? Let's rank them.
5. Atonement
4. Michael Clayton
3. Juno
1b. There Will Be Blood
1a. No Country For Old Men
Dr. Z on SI has picked the Giants in the Super Bowl. I mean....if you really think so.
My stocks have been rebounding lately...ever since I became single. Coincidence? Yeah completely. And the Asian market is looking very weak today. We'll see how that goes.
I can't remember if I posted, but one of our dachshunds at home died. Elvis, the youngest. I don't think he had been sick but he was found behind our woodpile the other day. He was a very sweet dog, although annoying at times. I wish I hadn't pushed him away so much out of my face now. I just hope that he felt loved and he will be sorely missed.
It looks like it's time for some exciting marketing. Later.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
I'm only bleeding
It's been a shitty week thus far. I thought for a minute that my stocks would be a turnaround, because I was actually up all day while the market was down. Until my India fund fell 12%. So I have now had 4 up days out of 14 this year. And 7 of those days had greater percentage declines than my best percentage day. So all in all, 2008 sucks so far.
And may I say that even though it stemmed the tide of an awful day, that the Fed move smacked of panic and desperation. I'm very disappointed that they are acting this irresponsible. I'm not a proponent of the gold standard, but if this is how our wonderful Fed system performs, perhaps it's not such a bad idea after all.
I did see There Will Be Blood though. And it was incredible. On par with No Country For Old Men. I've now seen 4 of the 5 Best Picture noms, with Atonement and Michael Clayton also being quality. I just need to see Juno sometime.
Heath Ledger died. I used to not like him, but he was great in Brokeback Mountain and by all indications will be spectacular in the new Batman movie. Very sad loss.
And may I say that even though it stemmed the tide of an awful day, that the Fed move smacked of panic and desperation. I'm very disappointed that they are acting this irresponsible. I'm not a proponent of the gold standard, but if this is how our wonderful Fed system performs, perhaps it's not such a bad idea after all.
I did see There Will Be Blood though. And it was incredible. On par with No Country For Old Men. I've now seen 4 of the 5 Best Picture noms, with Atonement and Michael Clayton also being quality. I just need to see Juno sometime.
Heath Ledger died. I used to not like him, but he was great in Brokeback Mountain and by all indications will be spectacular in the new Batman movie. Very sad loss.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
College Basketball Anyone?
YES! We are down to only one team without a win. The mighty New Jersey Institute of Technology is now 0-20 with only 9 games remaining. It's looking likely they could finish with no wins. They might be able to beat Longwood but even that's a tough game for them. Stay tuned.
Why are they so bad? Their offense is abysmal. Their highest point total is 71. They've scored 50 or less 7 times. Yeesh!
Now that Carolina went down to Maryland, only two unbeatens left. Kansas and Memphis. I still think Memphis is going unbeaten into their conference tournament but Kansas continues to look strong with wins against Oklahoma and Mizzou.
William & Mary is now in a three way tie for 2nd behind VCU in the Colonial. I'm not sure how long this will last, but I'm enjoying it thus far.
And Appalachian continues to win. Six game winning streak. But they'll need to win the SoCon Tourney to get in and that will be difficult indeed with Davidson in the way.
I decided to do a Top 10 of the teams not in the Big Six/BCS Conferences. Here you go.
10. Dayton 14-2 Don't forget that this team walloped Pittsburgh who is the only team to beat Duke.
9. Illinois State 14-4 Mainly because they're running 2nd in the always tough Missouri Valley
8. UNLV 13-4 Dominant wins against Minnesota and BYU get them on the list.
7. Butler 17-2 Losses to Cleveland State and Wright State aren't too great. But they have beaten Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Florida State and Southern Illinois.
6. New Mexico 15-4 Texas Tech is probably the best win and nothing else jumps out, but I think they will end up being the best in the Mountain West. Maybe a reach pick though.
5. St. Mary's 15-2 Some competition for Gonzaga? Wins against Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, San Diego State, and Ohio seem to suggest yes.
4. Gonzaga 14-4 Yawn. The Zags are at it again. Wins against Western Kentucky, Virginia Tech, UConn, Saint Joe's, Utah, Georgia and solid losses to Tennessee, Texas Tech, Washington State, and Oklahoma.
3. Drake 16-1 They're undefeated in the Missouri Valley and their only loss is to St. Mary's. Pretty solid resume I'd say.
2. Xavier 15-4 The Temple loss was concerning, but this team beat up on Indiana, Virginia and Kansas State. They may not be as good as I thought a few weeks ago but I still think this could be the best Xavier team ever.
1. Memphis 17-0 Theyre unbeaten and they've won once by less than 10. What more do you want to know?
Why are they so bad? Their offense is abysmal. Their highest point total is 71. They've scored 50 or less 7 times. Yeesh!
Now that Carolina went down to Maryland, only two unbeatens left. Kansas and Memphis. I still think Memphis is going unbeaten into their conference tournament but Kansas continues to look strong with wins against Oklahoma and Mizzou.
William & Mary is now in a three way tie for 2nd behind VCU in the Colonial. I'm not sure how long this will last, but I'm enjoying it thus far.
And Appalachian continues to win. Six game winning streak. But they'll need to win the SoCon Tourney to get in and that will be difficult indeed with Davidson in the way.
I decided to do a Top 10 of the teams not in the Big Six/BCS Conferences. Here you go.
10. Dayton 14-2 Don't forget that this team walloped Pittsburgh who is the only team to beat Duke.
9. Illinois State 14-4 Mainly because they're running 2nd in the always tough Missouri Valley
8. UNLV 13-4 Dominant wins against Minnesota and BYU get them on the list.
7. Butler 17-2 Losses to Cleveland State and Wright State aren't too great. But they have beaten Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Florida State and Southern Illinois.
6. New Mexico 15-4 Texas Tech is probably the best win and nothing else jumps out, but I think they will end up being the best in the Mountain West. Maybe a reach pick though.
5. St. Mary's 15-2 Some competition for Gonzaga? Wins against Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, San Diego State, and Ohio seem to suggest yes.
4. Gonzaga 14-4 Yawn. The Zags are at it again. Wins against Western Kentucky, Virginia Tech, UConn, Saint Joe's, Utah, Georgia and solid losses to Tennessee, Texas Tech, Washington State, and Oklahoma.
3. Drake 16-1 They're undefeated in the Missouri Valley and their only loss is to St. Mary's. Pretty solid resume I'd say.
2. Xavier 15-4 The Temple loss was concerning, but this team beat up on Indiana, Virginia and Kansas State. They may not be as good as I thought a few weeks ago but I still think this could be the best Xavier team ever.
1. Memphis 17-0 Theyre unbeaten and they've won once by less than 10. What more do you want to know?
Some highlights....and lowlights from poker
Well I said yesterday that I lasted about five hours. Here is some of the good plays and the few that bad ones that cost me at the end.
I first went ahead with the chips we started out with (5,000) when I had pocket Kings. I bet aggressively and then flopped trips. I continued to bet aggressively and forced everyone out and grabbed the pot.
Sometimes you're glad when you don't play a hand. I had pocket 3's and thought about it but decided to fold. The flop came and I was pissed because I picked up trip 3's. However, in the end it was good because the turn and river gave someone a flush so if I had played that hand it would have cost me a lot.
Probably my favorite play came when I had 6/5 suited. I decided to play it. And I picked up two more suited and there was an Ace on the board. Everyone seemed very cautious, I raised a large amount very confidently and everyone folded. John Stapleford asked if I had an Ace and I showed and he got really pissed. I enjoyed that greatly.
When about 25 were left, I was still doing pretty well although I had lost some of my winnings on some tough hands. I had a 9 and flopped a pair. Everyone played cautious and I noticed there was a Jack on the board. I decided that was the best anyone could possibly have and that I could bet aggressively and force everyone out. Unfortun,ately I was wrong. Everyone folded except for one girl. All she had was the Jack it turns out but I couldn't force her out. Unfortunately I couldn't pick up a third 9 and she got a running straight. Definitely wasn't smart on my part but I was probably not thinking straight as I had been playing for at least 4 hours.
My last stand came when I decided to go all in with A/10. I didn't have many chips remaining and decided I needed to make a move whenever I got a playable hand. One person stayed in and he had K/J suited. I flopped the Ace, but he flopped the flush. I needed only tens and Aces to survive. And I didn't get them.
And that was the way it ended. I finished higher than any other MBA student. Of course, in a way that sucked because I had to play more than 2 hours longer and still came away with nothing. And it was for charity so I guess I can't complain too much.
I first went ahead with the chips we started out with (5,000) when I had pocket Kings. I bet aggressively and then flopped trips. I continued to bet aggressively and forced everyone out and grabbed the pot.
Sometimes you're glad when you don't play a hand. I had pocket 3's and thought about it but decided to fold. The flop came and I was pissed because I picked up trip 3's. However, in the end it was good because the turn and river gave someone a flush so if I had played that hand it would have cost me a lot.
Probably my favorite play came when I had 6/5 suited. I decided to play it. And I picked up two more suited and there was an Ace on the board. Everyone seemed very cautious, I raised a large amount very confidently and everyone folded. John Stapleford asked if I had an Ace and I showed and he got really pissed. I enjoyed that greatly.
When about 25 were left, I was still doing pretty well although I had lost some of my winnings on some tough hands. I had a 9 and flopped a pair. Everyone played cautious and I noticed there was a Jack on the board. I decided that was the best anyone could possibly have and that I could bet aggressively and force everyone out. Unfortun,ately I was wrong. Everyone folded except for one girl. All she had was the Jack it turns out but I couldn't force her out. Unfortunately I couldn't pick up a third 9 and she got a running straight. Definitely wasn't smart on my part but I was probably not thinking straight as I had been playing for at least 4 hours.
My last stand came when I decided to go all in with A/10. I didn't have many chips remaining and decided I needed to make a move whenever I got a playable hand. One person stayed in and he had K/J suited. I flopped the Ace, but he flopped the flush. I needed only tens and Aces to survive. And I didn't get them.
And that was the way it ended. I finished higher than any other MBA student. Of course, in a way that sucked because I had to play more than 2 hours longer and still came away with nothing. And it was for charity so I guess I can't complain too much.
NFL Championship Picks
Before I get to my picks for this week, I see that John McCain won South Carolina. Big win for him and a pretty devastating loss for Huckabee. I thought Huckabee would win, but now it's going to be hard for him to continue to raise money. He's not dead yet, but it's looking bleak. Don't count him out of the picture though. I could definitely see him as a potential VP nominee, especially if McCain wins as they seem to be friendly towards one another. However if Romney wins, then not a chance in hell.
After going 3-1 last week, I'm now 5-3 through the playoffs. FINISH STRONG!
San Diego (+14) over New England: San Diego was going to be a heavy underdog anyway, but being ravaged with injuries, they're in trouble against the Pats. Of course...they still beat the Colts even with losses of Tomlinson, Rivers, and others. New England killed San Diego earlier this year, but this is a much different team. This is the Chargers, the experts have said could challenge for a Super Bowl. And if New England wasn't so damn good, I'd agree. But still, that's an awfully high line. Do I think New England will win? Yes. Do I think they'll win by more than two touchdowns? That's a stretch.
New York Giants (+7.5) over Green Bay: This is tough. It's going to be ridiculously cold in Green Bay tomorrow. I've heard forecasts below zero. But since the G-Men nearly beat the Patriots, they've been on a roll. I think the Giants (yes even with Eli) could give the Packers a very difficult game and with a few breaks pull off the upset. However, if Green Bay wins by 21, I wouldn't be surprised either. I'll take the underdog because picking the Giants has been good for my record thus far.
After going 3-1 last week, I'm now 5-3 through the playoffs. FINISH STRONG!
San Diego (+14) over New England: San Diego was going to be a heavy underdog anyway, but being ravaged with injuries, they're in trouble against the Pats. Of course...they still beat the Colts even with losses of Tomlinson, Rivers, and others. New England killed San Diego earlier this year, but this is a much different team. This is the Chargers, the experts have said could challenge for a Super Bowl. And if New England wasn't so damn good, I'd agree. But still, that's an awfully high line. Do I think New England will win? Yes. Do I think they'll win by more than two touchdowns? That's a stretch.
New York Giants (+7.5) over Green Bay: This is tough. It's going to be ridiculously cold in Green Bay tomorrow. I've heard forecasts below zero. But since the G-Men nearly beat the Patriots, they've been on a roll. I think the Giants (yes even with Eli) could give the Packers a very difficult game and with a few breaks pull off the upset. However, if Green Bay wins by 21, I wouldn't be surprised either. I'll take the underdog because picking the Giants has been good for my record thus far.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Busted
After about 5 hours, I was knocked out of the Bone Marrow Drive poker tournament. I'll tell you about some of the highlights I remembered. However I'm too tired right now.
UNC and UCLA lost today? Appalachian and William & Mary both won? Ridiculous!
Big wins for Clinton and Romney respectively in Nevada.
The faculty gives feedback to all the MBA students. Here is what mine said verbatim.
Jeb – You come across as confident and optimistic. Your preparation is always solid and you have been a good strong contributor across a range of classes. You have a good quantity and quality of contributions. We enjoy your southern accent and we hope to continue to hear more of it in the second half of the year.
I laughed.
UNC and UCLA lost today? Appalachian and William & Mary both won? Ridiculous!
Big wins for Clinton and Romney respectively in Nevada.
The faculty gives feedback to all the MBA students. Here is what mine said verbatim.
Jeb – You come across as confident and optimistic. Your preparation is always solid and you have been a good strong contributor across a range of classes. You have a good quantity and quality of contributions. We enjoy your southern accent and we hope to continue to hear more of it in the second half of the year.
I laughed.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Yes I Sent This
Dear Parking Dept:
I am curious as to why after paying several hundred dollars to park near my apartment at the Graduate Complex, that half of our resident spots have been taken away for Faculty and Day Student Parking. I feel that is a bit unfair as it was hard enough to find parking as it is and now it is made even likelier that I have to park in the overflow lot.
Regards,
Jeb McRary
I am curious as to why after paying several hundred dollars to park near my apartment at the Graduate Complex, that half of our resident spots have been taken away for Faculty and Day Student Parking. I feel that is a bit unfair as it was hard enough to find parking as it is and now it is made even likelier that I have to park in the overflow lot.
Regards,
Jeb McRary
I think too much sometimes.
Ok all the time.
I was looking up this weekend's Colonial basketball games. If everything breaks right, ( and I mean everything), William & Mary would be in 1st on tiebreaks. Of course all this has to happen...
William & Mary beats Towson (I'll say probably)
Delaware loses to Northeastern (Also probable. Don't care that Delaware started off strong. They're overrated)
VCU loses to Old Dominion (Close but I like VCU in that one)
Still...not out of the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, I'd say there's a 25-30% chance of this trifecta happening. Stay tuned.
My portfolio is having another negative day. But the rest of the market is down much worse. I suppose that's a bright note.
I'm considering investing in a gold fund. But I might see if gold pulls back a little bit first. Any thoughts?
My brother bought an mp3 player over the break. I'm considering buying one as well. However mine will be bigger and have more memory because I want to put all the albums I have on it. It will also be bigger because I'm trying to compensate for something.
I'm very excited about this year's Grammy Running Diary. Especially since I don't see a Best Album nomination for anybody actually deserving such as LCD Soundsystem, M.I.A, Radiohead, Nine Inch Nails, Arcade Fire, etc. I will be very bitter and take it out on everyone. Be warned.
I realized that I forgot to include a movie on my 2007 rankings. It was Alien vs Predator: Requiem. I wouldn't worry too much though. It's not like it was very high on the list. And the fact that I forgot to include it probably doesn't bode well for its quality. In defense it was better than the last AvP movie. Unfortunately, that was a low bar. Kind of like if I jumped over a stick that was two inches in the air and then thought I could be in the NBA. Wait...it's not like that at all.
There are currently four movies I want to see. Juno, Atonement, Sweeney Todd, and There Will Be Blood. I am also interested in Cloverfield...but the fact that it's being released in January which is the traditional dumping ground for awful movies, and the fact that it's by J.J. Abrams who refuses to ever answer any questions on his TV series until turns into a swirling jumbled mess is not a good indicator.
I have a headache so that's all I got for now.
I was looking up this weekend's Colonial basketball games. If everything breaks right, ( and I mean everything), William & Mary would be in 1st on tiebreaks. Of course all this has to happen...
William & Mary beats Towson (I'll say probably)
Delaware loses to Northeastern (Also probable. Don't care that Delaware started off strong. They're overrated)
VCU loses to Old Dominion (Close but I like VCU in that one)
Still...not out of the realm of possibility. If I had to guess, I'd say there's a 25-30% chance of this trifecta happening. Stay tuned.
My portfolio is having another negative day. But the rest of the market is down much worse. I suppose that's a bright note.
I'm considering investing in a gold fund. But I might see if gold pulls back a little bit first. Any thoughts?
My brother bought an mp3 player over the break. I'm considering buying one as well. However mine will be bigger and have more memory because I want to put all the albums I have on it. It will also be bigger because I'm trying to compensate for something.
I'm very excited about this year's Grammy Running Diary. Especially since I don't see a Best Album nomination for anybody actually deserving such as LCD Soundsystem, M.I.A, Radiohead, Nine Inch Nails, Arcade Fire, etc. I will be very bitter and take it out on everyone. Be warned.
I realized that I forgot to include a movie on my 2007 rankings. It was Alien vs Predator: Requiem. I wouldn't worry too much though. It's not like it was very high on the list. And the fact that I forgot to include it probably doesn't bode well for its quality. In defense it was better than the last AvP movie. Unfortunately, that was a low bar. Kind of like if I jumped over a stick that was two inches in the air and then thought I could be in the NBA. Wait...it's not like that at all.
There are currently four movies I want to see. Juno, Atonement, Sweeney Todd, and There Will Be Blood. I am also interested in Cloverfield...but the fact that it's being released in January which is the traditional dumping ground for awful movies, and the fact that it's by J.J. Abrams who refuses to ever answer any questions on his TV series until turns into a swirling jumbled mess is not a good indicator.
I have a headache so that's all I got for now.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The Plot Thickens
I know I'm a nerd for liking politics. But this year's Presidential race continues to get very interesting. Unlike last time, where it was virtually decided after the second primary, it's clear we've got awhile to go for both parties. Tonight's Michigan primary has given Mitt Romney a much needed win. So now Romney has won Wyoming and Michigan, Huckabee won Iowa and McCain won New Hampshire. It's going to be very interesting this weekend with the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary. I'm probably getting ahead of myself, but the possibility of a brokered convention, especially on the Republican side seems to grow by the day. It will be very interesting once Giuliani's strategy starts to take effect and to see if he can win these high delegate count states such as Florida. I'd give the edge to McCain still on the Republican side, but this is definitely a setback for his campaign.
Winners tonight: Romney (for winning his potential "last chance" and keeping his campaign alive) and Giuliani (as long as there is no front runner, the chances of his wait for the big states strategy succeeding improve).
Winners tonight: Romney (for winning his potential "last chance" and keeping his campaign alive) and Giuliani (as long as there is no front runner, the chances of his wait for the big states strategy succeeding improve).
Monday, January 14, 2008
Oh Christopher Hitchens!
You're so rude and cruel to people. You're a drunken bastard who is always complaining about something. But yet....I am strangely drawn to you and your generally well written columns. Such as this one.
http://www.slate.com/id/2182065/
http://www.slate.com/id/2182065/
School's Out For the Summer!
Wait...it's not summer. And school is in. Darn. I knew something seemed fishy.
Gasp! Did I actually go 3-1 over the weekend with my NFL picks? It appears that I did. Whoda thunk it.
And my predictions of Wazzu and Vandy going down this weekend came true. I'm on a roll.
There's a graduate student poker tourney this Saturday. I'm prepared to lose at least $40. But by God it goes to charity. So I will be ready for some Texas Hold 'Em!
And Richard brought Rock Band to the apartment. I'm sure to fail now.
That's pretty much all I got for now. Later
Gasp! Did I actually go 3-1 over the weekend with my NFL picks? It appears that I did. Whoda thunk it.
And my predictions of Wazzu and Vandy going down this weekend came true. I'm on a roll.
There's a graduate student poker tourney this Saturday. I'm prepared to lose at least $40. But by God it goes to charity. So I will be ready for some Texas Hold 'Em!
And Richard brought Rock Band to the apartment. I'm sure to fail now.
That's pretty much all I got for now. Later
Saturday, January 12, 2008
NFL Playoff Picks Round Two
Well I had a spectacularly mediocre start with NFL picks. Let's try to improve my 2-2 start.
Green Bay (-7.5) over Seattle: I think Seattle is the weakest team remaining, but this is a pretty high line, so I'm tempted to take Seattle. But Green Bay looked strong at the end of the season, and I'm not sure if Seattle can stop the GB offense in Favre's potentially last hurrah. I''ll take Green Bay.
New England (-13) over Jacksonville: Jacksonville is extremely good. New England is a lot better. Don't believe the bandwagon. Patriots in a blowout.
San Diego (+9.5) over Indianapolis: I may be crazy, but that seems too high a lie. San Diego with a few breaks can win this game. And I think they'll lose by less than a TD or perhaps a Vinateri FG.
NY Giants (+7.5) over Dallas: Eli Manning for two straight weeks on the road? I got nothing to lose so sure. And I'm not certain if Dallas is the same team they've been all year. That blowout against the 'Skins looked bad. And is TO ok? Dallas should still be favored, but once again I think a divisional rival plays them close.
Green Bay (-7.5) over Seattle: I think Seattle is the weakest team remaining, but this is a pretty high line, so I'm tempted to take Seattle. But Green Bay looked strong at the end of the season, and I'm not sure if Seattle can stop the GB offense in Favre's potentially last hurrah. I''ll take Green Bay.
New England (-13) over Jacksonville: Jacksonville is extremely good. New England is a lot better. Don't believe the bandwagon. Patriots in a blowout.
San Diego (+9.5) over Indianapolis: I may be crazy, but that seems too high a lie. San Diego with a few breaks can win this game. And I think they'll lose by less than a TD or perhaps a Vinateri FG.
NY Giants (+7.5) over Dallas: Eli Manning for two straight weeks on the road? I got nothing to lose so sure. And I'm not certain if Dallas is the same team they've been all year. That blowout against the 'Skins looked bad. And is TO ok? Dallas should still be favored, but once again I think a divisional rival plays them close.
Friday, January 11, 2008
A Spoonful of Sugar Makes the Medicine Go Down
I bought a ridiculous book the other day. 1,001 Books You Must Read Before You Die. Except it's not really books...it's actually novels. Yet it doesn't include novels such as The Red Badge of Courage, As I Lay Dying, or Watership Down to name but a few. But it does include Aesop's Fables, three Poe stories, and dozens of books published since 2000. Also no Shakespeare. If they wanted to make it an all novel list that's fine. But if they're not going to include essential novels but include non-novels, well that's just dumb.
I haven't talked much about basketball this year. But we're down to 5 unbeaten teams. So I should briefly discuss their chances. In ascending order of likelihood of finishing the regular season unbeaten, which only St. Joseph's has done in the last 17 years.
5. Vanderbilt 16-0: Now I'm really sad I wasn't accepted to the MBA program. Nothing like being able to pull for an unbeaten team. Don't ask about William & Mary. Oh well. It won't last. Vandy hasn't played anyone of great difficulty yet and the meat of the SEC starts soon. And this is clearly the weakest of the five unbeatens. You think they can run through Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennesse and others unscathed. They'll be lucky to finish .500 in conference to be quite honest.
4. Washington State 14-0: Wazzu is looking pretty strong, especially the defense. Still...I thought UCLA would be the #1 team, and the Bruins look great. Wazzu has to play them twice. And the Pac-10 is possibly the strongest conference this year. Wazzu is better than Vandy, but they're not going unbeaten either.
3. North Carolina 16-0: Carolina has looked very good at times and has even had some luck and close escapes such as with Kansas. but that defense looks pretty leaky. And in the ACC, someone will make them pay for that. Probably Duke and potentially a team such as Miami or FSU on the road.
2. Kansas 15-0: Kansas has arguably been the most impressive team in the nation. But the Big 12 looks brutal this year. Texas, Texas A&M, Mizzou, Nebraska are all teams capable of knocking off the Jayhawks. They'll have a bad night sometime and it will happen.
1. Memphis 14-0: Far and away the most likely to win out. Clearly look for real the way the beat up on quality opponents such as Georgetown. Plus, C-USA is very weak. I see only three even potential losses remaining but Memphis will be heavily favored in every one. Gonzaga, Tennessee and a game on the road at UAB. At this point, I think the Tigers slip up in one of these games (or perhaps somewhere unexpected) but their odds are looking better and better each game.
I haven't talked much about basketball this year. But we're down to 5 unbeaten teams. So I should briefly discuss their chances. In ascending order of likelihood of finishing the regular season unbeaten, which only St. Joseph's has done in the last 17 years.
5. Vanderbilt 16-0: Now I'm really sad I wasn't accepted to the MBA program. Nothing like being able to pull for an unbeaten team. Don't ask about William & Mary. Oh well. It won't last. Vandy hasn't played anyone of great difficulty yet and the meat of the SEC starts soon. And this is clearly the weakest of the five unbeatens. You think they can run through Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennesse and others unscathed. They'll be lucky to finish .500 in conference to be quite honest.
4. Washington State 14-0: Wazzu is looking pretty strong, especially the defense. Still...I thought UCLA would be the #1 team, and the Bruins look great. Wazzu has to play them twice. And the Pac-10 is possibly the strongest conference this year. Wazzu is better than Vandy, but they're not going unbeaten either.
3. North Carolina 16-0: Carolina has looked very good at times and has even had some luck and close escapes such as with Kansas. but that defense looks pretty leaky. And in the ACC, someone will make them pay for that. Probably Duke and potentially a team such as Miami or FSU on the road.
2. Kansas 15-0: Kansas has arguably been the most impressive team in the nation. But the Big 12 looks brutal this year. Texas, Texas A&M, Mizzou, Nebraska are all teams capable of knocking off the Jayhawks. They'll have a bad night sometime and it will happen.
1. Memphis 14-0: Far and away the most likely to win out. Clearly look for real the way the beat up on quality opponents such as Georgetown. Plus, C-USA is very weak. I see only three even potential losses remaining but Memphis will be heavily favored in every one. Gonzaga, Tennessee and a game on the road at UAB. At this point, I think the Tigers slip up in one of these games (or perhaps somewhere unexpected) but their odds are looking better and better each game.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
My Failed Attempt at Buying a MINI
Well, Jeb won't be involved in any Italian Job-style car chases in the near future. Here's why...
So me and my mom drove up to Hendrick BMW to try to trade in our 1995 Camry for a 2004 MINI. After trying it out, we met with the dealer and started to talk prices. We didn't get very far. The list price was $15,995. After much dancing around, I asked him if we traded thel Camry for the MINI, how much we would owe him. He allowed us $500 on the Camry and with taxes we would owe about $16,400. I then said so we're basically giving you my Camry and paying you an additional $500 to boot? Clearly this was not a good deal. He asked for my price. I told him since I figured he paid about $12,000 at the auction in Statesville for the MINI and since I felt my Camry should bring $2,000 that I would offer $11,000 as a way to give him a $1,000 profit. He said this was unworkable as well because the price he was listing was giving was the absolute lowest he could go. I found this hard to believe that they would price a car for the absolute lowest price they would take and expressed my opinion as such. Since he said he wouldn't give but $500 for the Camry we asked him to price just the MINI. He came back and the price for the MINI straight up was....$16,400. I expressed interest in the fact that this was the same price as before with the Camry. He tried to explain that he was giving me a better deal by cutting the price but it was clear what he had done. As it was the same price as before, he wasn't pricing the Camry at $500 at all. He was pricing it at $0. This continued to no avail. After a long silence, I offered $13,000 with the Camry. He said nope. I asked him if he could come down any since I had raised my price by $2,000 as a good gesture in bargaining. He said nope. I said well bye and my mom and I walked out.
Now I'm not sure why this happened this way but there are several options.
1. It's a BMW dealership so they are snobs and refuse to negotiate whatsoever.
2. The guy we were dealing with was an idiot and apparently doesn't know how to negotiate at all.
3. They assumed since we were just a young lad and his mother, that we were idiots and would do whatever they said. Incorrect.
4. Perhaps the dealer really can get a wholesaler to come in and buy the MINI for more than we were offering. If so, I wish them well. It's my responsibility to understand that a dealer has to profit and to negotiate in a reasonable manner in that respect. It's not my responsibility to maximize their profit.
So no MINI for now. Oh well.
So me and my mom drove up to Hendrick BMW to try to trade in our 1995 Camry for a 2004 MINI. After trying it out, we met with the dealer and started to talk prices. We didn't get very far. The list price was $15,995. After much dancing around, I asked him if we traded thel Camry for the MINI, how much we would owe him. He allowed us $500 on the Camry and with taxes we would owe about $16,400. I then said so we're basically giving you my Camry and paying you an additional $500 to boot? Clearly this was not a good deal. He asked for my price. I told him since I figured he paid about $12,000 at the auction in Statesville for the MINI and since I felt my Camry should bring $2,000 that I would offer $11,000 as a way to give him a $1,000 profit. He said this was unworkable as well because the price he was listing was giving was the absolute lowest he could go. I found this hard to believe that they would price a car for the absolute lowest price they would take and expressed my opinion as such. Since he said he wouldn't give but $500 for the Camry we asked him to price just the MINI. He came back and the price for the MINI straight up was....$16,400. I expressed interest in the fact that this was the same price as before with the Camry. He tried to explain that he was giving me a better deal by cutting the price but it was clear what he had done. As it was the same price as before, he wasn't pricing the Camry at $500 at all. He was pricing it at $0. This continued to no avail. After a long silence, I offered $13,000 with the Camry. He said nope. I asked him if he could come down any since I had raised my price by $2,000 as a good gesture in bargaining. He said nope. I said well bye and my mom and I walked out.
Now I'm not sure why this happened this way but there are several options.
1. It's a BMW dealership so they are snobs and refuse to negotiate whatsoever.
2. The guy we were dealing with was an idiot and apparently doesn't know how to negotiate at all.
3. They assumed since we were just a young lad and his mother, that we were idiots and would do whatever they said. Incorrect.
4. Perhaps the dealer really can get a wholesaler to come in and buy the MINI for more than we were offering. If so, I wish them well. It's my responsibility to understand that a dealer has to profit and to negotiate in a reasonable manner in that respect. It's not my responsibility to maximize their profit.
So no MINI for now. Oh well.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Post New Hampshire Analysis and Ranking
After the stunning New Hampshire results, it's time to check in on how the campaigns are doing with InTrade odds in ascending order of likelihood.
12. Bill Richardson: Probably should have been including him just for the fact that he has made it this far. But his campaign has never taken off and he looks to be no threat to even John Edwards. He is still a very serious VP candidate though so don't be surprised to see him on the ticket.
11. Fred Thompson: Keeps saying he's ready for states like South Carolina. His campaign is pretty much dead in the water and the 6th place in NH accentuates that. It's fragmented among the Republicans but he won't be able to take advantage.
10. Al Gore: Probably won't run. But if Clinton and Obama bruise it out and we can't settle on a nominee, is he a potential white knight? He could afford to enter late like Michael Bloomberg
9 Ron Paul: A 5th place finish in NH is a tad disappointing in a state that has a heavy amout of independents. Don't expect him to drop out anytime soon and he may run as an independent, but tonight's results probably ended any hope of the longshot winning the Republican nomination.
8. John Edwards: He can't be pleased with the Clinton comeback. He desperately needed Clinton out of the race so he could try to take on Obama one on one. Expect him to continue to be lost in the shuffle.
7. Michael Bloomberg: Seems to be preparing for a run (and in full disclosure, I will jump on his bandwagon if he does) and is probably thrilled that Clinton won tonight. The more turmoil there is among the parties, the easier path he has to step into the race. Amazing in a year like this there is still talk of people like Al Gore, Bloomberg, and I've even heard Lou Dobbs mentioned as potential late entrants. Shows the electorate is deeply unsatisfied with the way our country is going.
6. Mitt Romney: Romney is in free fall mode after losing two states he was leading not long ago. He can still turn it around, but he will probably need to win Michigan to get back in serious contention.
5. Mike Huckabee: Finishes behind Romney, and is seen as having done better. All about expectations. Very impressive finish in a state that's not known for supporting Southern evangelicals. It doesn't look like he will be going away any time soon.
4. Rudy Giuliani: At least he beat Ron Paul and Fred Thompson this time. Still don't know much about Rudy's prospects as his strategy is for late delegate pickups in the big states.
3. John McCain: I predicted after the 2006 midterms that McCain would win the 2008 Presidency. He is finally showing that promise after his campaign seemed to be finished last summer. Big win tonight.
2. Barack Obama: Why did he lose NH? Too conservative in the late game? Hillary's tears? Voters lying and not willing to vote for a black man in secrecy? No idea, but as I said before (and foolishly discounted in my early predictions) don't count the Clintons out. A huge setback for the Obama camp and it's clearly going to be a hard slog for the nomination.
1. Hillary Clinton: This morning they were having to discount that Hillary was leaving the race upon being trounced by Obama. Well...she didn't get trounced. A stunning win to all those including the Clinton camp.
12. Bill Richardson: Probably should have been including him just for the fact that he has made it this far. But his campaign has never taken off and he looks to be no threat to even John Edwards. He is still a very serious VP candidate though so don't be surprised to see him on the ticket.
11. Fred Thompson: Keeps saying he's ready for states like South Carolina. His campaign is pretty much dead in the water and the 6th place in NH accentuates that. It's fragmented among the Republicans but he won't be able to take advantage.
10. Al Gore: Probably won't run. But if Clinton and Obama bruise it out and we can't settle on a nominee, is he a potential white knight? He could afford to enter late like Michael Bloomberg
9 Ron Paul: A 5th place finish in NH is a tad disappointing in a state that has a heavy amout of independents. Don't expect him to drop out anytime soon and he may run as an independent, but tonight's results probably ended any hope of the longshot winning the Republican nomination.
8. John Edwards: He can't be pleased with the Clinton comeback. He desperately needed Clinton out of the race so he could try to take on Obama one on one. Expect him to continue to be lost in the shuffle.
7. Michael Bloomberg: Seems to be preparing for a run (and in full disclosure, I will jump on his bandwagon if he does) and is probably thrilled that Clinton won tonight. The more turmoil there is among the parties, the easier path he has to step into the race. Amazing in a year like this there is still talk of people like Al Gore, Bloomberg, and I've even heard Lou Dobbs mentioned as potential late entrants. Shows the electorate is deeply unsatisfied with the way our country is going.
6. Mitt Romney: Romney is in free fall mode after losing two states he was leading not long ago. He can still turn it around, but he will probably need to win Michigan to get back in serious contention.
5. Mike Huckabee: Finishes behind Romney, and is seen as having done better. All about expectations. Very impressive finish in a state that's not known for supporting Southern evangelicals. It doesn't look like he will be going away any time soon.
4. Rudy Giuliani: At least he beat Ron Paul and Fred Thompson this time. Still don't know much about Rudy's prospects as his strategy is for late delegate pickups in the big states.
3. John McCain: I predicted after the 2006 midterms that McCain would win the 2008 Presidency. He is finally showing that promise after his campaign seemed to be finished last summer. Big win tonight.
2. Barack Obama: Why did he lose NH? Too conservative in the late game? Hillary's tears? Voters lying and not willing to vote for a black man in secrecy? No idea, but as I said before (and foolishly discounted in my early predictions) don't count the Clintons out. A huge setback for the Obama camp and it's clearly going to be a hard slog for the nomination.
1. Hillary Clinton: This morning they were having to discount that Hillary was leaving the race upon being trounced by Obama. Well...she didn't get trounced. A stunning win to all those including the Clinton camp.
Crash and Burn Baby
The market is truly disheartening. I'm already down more than 10% for the year. My annual return is now below the Dow Jones Industrial Average since I started. This after I had a 16.5% annual return back in July. If I had pulled everything out at that point, not counting commissions and taxes I would have had to pay, I would have saved nearly $13,000. I've still made money which a lot of people can't say, but it's not enough to be taking on the risk I have. Unless it turns around soon, I'm going to seriously consider a massive shakeup in my current portfolio. I'll sit tight for now though.
Picks tonight for New Hampshire? It appears the Democratic race is easy to call. Obama should easily win further crippling Hillary's chances as she finishes a distant second followed by Edwards and then Richardson. The Republican race is a little more interesting right now. First looks to be between McCain and Romney. I'll take them in that order. Interesting battle for third as Giuliani, Paul or Huckabee look to get it. It didn't work out last time, but I'll pick Ron Paul to finish 3rd this time with Huckabee finishing a respectable 4th. Giuliani takes the #5 spot and Thompson goes to the back of the line (well except for Duncan Hunter).
Picks tonight for New Hampshire? It appears the Democratic race is easy to call. Obama should easily win further crippling Hillary's chances as she finishes a distant second followed by Edwards and then Richardson. The Republican race is a little more interesting right now. First looks to be between McCain and Romney. I'll take them in that order. Interesting battle for third as Giuliani, Paul or Huckabee look to get it. It didn't work out last time, but I'll pick Ron Paul to finish 3rd this time with Huckabee finishing a respectable 4th. Giuliani takes the #5 spot and Thompson goes to the back of the line (well except for Duncan Hunter).
Monday, January 7, 2008
This is why I don't bet.
So I went 2-2 against the spread. Not a spectacular start. Not terrible either. Maybe I'll do better in the remaining games.
Could someone tell me why the hell Staktek (STAK) keeps falling. I bought back in May and have lost 40% of my investment. It's not in danger of bankruptcy, as it's Z-score is between 7 and 8. Anything above 3 is financially safe. It trades for $1.65 but has $1.22 a share on the balance sheet. It's been in the negative profit wise for awhile, but the business is still generating cash. It seems like a screaming buy to me. Once my GNSS tender offer closes, I will be adding more to my position.
I have found a MINI Cooper that I am interested in. Probably trading in the Camry for it before I go back to school (if the price is right of course). I'll keep you informed.
Could someone tell me why the hell Staktek (STAK) keeps falling. I bought back in May and have lost 40% of my investment. It's not in danger of bankruptcy, as it's Z-score is between 7 and 8. Anything above 3 is financially safe. It trades for $1.65 but has $1.22 a share on the balance sheet. It's been in the negative profit wise for awhile, but the business is still generating cash. It seems like a screaming buy to me. Once my GNSS tender offer closes, I will be adding more to my position.
I have found a MINI Cooper that I am interested in. Probably trading in the Camry for it before I go back to school (if the price is right of course). I'll keep you informed.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Don't Stop Bereaving
Me and my brother have come up with an idea. We would like to start a Hall of Fame for people who have succeeded without any discernable talent whatsoever. Some of the entrants would include Chad Kroeger, Fred Durst, P Diddy, Carlos Mencia and Dane Cook.
I'm down nearly 7% in three days. Boo stock market!
Now to see if I can go the fabled 11-0 against the spread in the NFL playoffs. The odds of doing so are about 0.05% but it doesn't hurt to try. Lines are taken from today's USA Today.
EDITED SLIGHTLY AT AROUND 4PM DUE TO CHANGES IN THE LINE
Washington (+3.5) over Seattle.: Let's see...the hottest team in the NFC or one of the most mediocre teams in the playoffs. Or let's try this. Washington was 9-7 against the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL. Seattle was 10-6 against the 32nd toughest. Yes there are only 32 teams in the NFL. I suppose home field gives the Seahawks a bit of an advantage (especially being in Seattle) but the Redskins look like a good pick here.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) over Jacksonville: This is a tough pick. Jacksonville is my brother's dark horse pick and they are clearly a better team than the Steelers. But it is a Pittsburgh home game. All Jacksonville needs is to win by a field goal to cover. Nobody seems to be talking about the Steelers so I'll take them to beat the spread.
New York Giants (+3) over Tampa Bay: I can't believe I'm taking Eli Manning on the road. Tampa is awful though. But won't the Giants be tired after nearly upsetting the Patriots? But Tampa Bay is not very good. Oh this is so hard! I simply can't say Tampa wins by more than a FG if they win at all though. A Giants win seems just as likely.
Tennessee (+10) over San Diego: I had San Diego but since the line is now double digits, I'm going with Tennessee. Norv Turner isn't that good a coach and Jeff Fisher will keep it close.
So I'm picking all underdogs to cover the spread. I'm completely crazy. We'll see how it goes.
I'm down nearly 7% in three days. Boo stock market!
Now to see if I can go the fabled 11-0 against the spread in the NFL playoffs. The odds of doing so are about 0.05% but it doesn't hurt to try. Lines are taken from today's USA Today.
EDITED SLIGHTLY AT AROUND 4PM DUE TO CHANGES IN THE LINE
Washington (+3.5) over Seattle.: Let's see...the hottest team in the NFC or one of the most mediocre teams in the playoffs. Or let's try this. Washington was 9-7 against the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL. Seattle was 10-6 against the 32nd toughest. Yes there are only 32 teams in the NFL. I suppose home field gives the Seahawks a bit of an advantage (especially being in Seattle) but the Redskins look like a good pick here.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) over Jacksonville: This is a tough pick. Jacksonville is my brother's dark horse pick and they are clearly a better team than the Steelers. But it is a Pittsburgh home game. All Jacksonville needs is to win by a field goal to cover. Nobody seems to be talking about the Steelers so I'll take them to beat the spread.
New York Giants (+3) over Tampa Bay: I can't believe I'm taking Eli Manning on the road. Tampa is awful though. But won't the Giants be tired after nearly upsetting the Patriots? But Tampa Bay is not very good. Oh this is so hard! I simply can't say Tampa wins by more than a FG if they win at all though. A Giants win seems just as likely.
Tennessee (+10) over San Diego: I had San Diego but since the line is now double digits, I'm going with Tennessee. Norv Turner isn't that good a coach and Jeff Fisher will keep it close.
So I'm picking all underdogs to cover the spread. I'm completely crazy. We'll see how it goes.
Jeb's Post Iowa Analysis
Winners: Obama, McCain, Huckabee
Losers: Clinton, Edwards, Romney, Giuliani
Obama and Huckabee both won their respective caucuses so clearly they are winners. Obama because Iowa could propel him to victories in other states who now see him as viable. Huckabee wins because he upsets Romney who was a heavy favorite in the state not long ago. Not sure if Huckabee can translate this to significance in the future (he won't do well in New Hampshire) but it shows he's staying around for a little while. Don't forget about John McCain though. He may still finish 4th behind Fred Thompson but Romney getting beat helps him a great deal. McCain is the Republican favorite in New Hampshire and it will be hard to knock him off now that Romney has zero momentum.
It looks possible that Clinton could actually finish third behind Edwards as well. So much for inevitability. She's still the favorite in my mind but this is a serious setback. Even though Edwards may grind out a #2 finish, he's too far behind Obama and he doesn't have the organization that can carry on like Clinton or Obama. He really needed this win to get him more funding. Clearly Romney lost because he's going to have to slug it out with Huckabee, Giuliani, and McCain for awhile. And don't forget about the national "front-runner" Rudy Giuliani who will be finishing behind the comatose Fred Thompson and Ron Paul for a sterling 6th place finish. He didn't campaign much here but that looks pretty bad.
Losers: Clinton, Edwards, Romney, Giuliani
Obama and Huckabee both won their respective caucuses so clearly they are winners. Obama because Iowa could propel him to victories in other states who now see him as viable. Huckabee wins because he upsets Romney who was a heavy favorite in the state not long ago. Not sure if Huckabee can translate this to significance in the future (he won't do well in New Hampshire) but it shows he's staying around for a little while. Don't forget about John McCain though. He may still finish 4th behind Fred Thompson but Romney getting beat helps him a great deal. McCain is the Republican favorite in New Hampshire and it will be hard to knock him off now that Romney has zero momentum.
It looks possible that Clinton could actually finish third behind Edwards as well. So much for inevitability. She's still the favorite in my mind but this is a serious setback. Even though Edwards may grind out a #2 finish, he's too far behind Obama and he doesn't have the organization that can carry on like Clinton or Obama. He really needed this win to get him more funding. Clearly Romney lost because he's going to have to slug it out with Huckabee, Giuliani, and McCain for awhile. And don't forget about the national "front-runner" Rudy Giuliani who will be finishing behind the comatose Fred Thompson and Ron Paul for a sterling 6th place finish. He didn't campaign much here but that looks pretty bad.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
2007 Movie Rankings
Before I get started, I forgot to include The Lives of Others on last year's list. It would have ranked very highly. Sorry about that.
Now the moment you've been waiting for. The movies that I saw in 2007 ranked from worst to best.
29. Hannibal Rising: I thought Hannibal had assured itself of worst film in the franchise. It has competition now.
28. Halloween: Remakes of classic movies are always a dangerous proposition. Rob Zombie took a classic in horror and raped it to death and unleashed this hideous and completely ridiculous film on us all. May he burn in hell.
27. Ghost Rider: Certainly not the worst comic based movie I've seen. Daredevil and Batman and Robin hold that honor. But it certainly was in the bottom tier. And the director of Daredevil directed this. At least he's improving?
26. Stomp the Yard: Right after Congress passes comprehensive immigration reform, they should ban all these terrible African-American dance based movies. They are a pox on my house. A POX!
25. Alpha Dog: Bad mainly because it thought it was a better movie than it really was. Especially Sharon Stone's stunning impression of DeNiro as late LaMotta at the end. And we know Justin Timberlake is just as good a thespian as he is a musician. That is.....subpar.
24. Reno 911 Miami: Disappointing to say the least. Just couldn't keep consistent laughs throught a feature film.
23. Death Sentence: Probably better than I gave it credit for. At least it's better than the Saw movies. Still just your standard revenge fare. You didn't miss much.
22. 300: Ok guys. It wasn't that good. Get over yourself. There's much better action movies. It was pretty mediocre. I just didn't get the acclaim.
21. Disturbia: Better than you'd think for a blatant Rear Window knock off.
20. Black Sheep: Somewhat humorous horror comedy about killer sheep. Still, the idea was better than the execution.
19. Live Free Or Die Hard: Well it was better than Die Hard 2. Still you don't make a Die Hard with a PG-13 rating. You just don't. And the computer effects were the worst for a major summer film I've seen in awhile.
18. Shooter: It was ok but I still don't understand why everyone I know likes it so much.
17. The Kingdom: Fucking awesome! Kick-ass! I'm being sarcastic of course. Good at times but the ridiculous finale with the attempt at being important failed miserably.
16. Black Book: Decent WWII thriller but it seemed over the top at times.
15. Spider-Man 3: Boy what a comedown from Spider-Man 2 perhaps the best comic based movie ever. Tried to fit 2.5 movies worth of material into one. Did not succeed.
14. Transformers: I've been a longtime critic of Michael Bay. But I give props when it's due. This was his best movie so far. Not saying a lot but it was good and I enjoyed it. There I said it.
13. The Host: Good Korean horror movie. Excellent effects and use of humor although the anti-American tone was a bit much at times.
12. 28 Weeks Later: Surprisingly was just as good as the original. Who's ready for 28 Months Later?
11. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: It's hard to criticize the Potter movies. They are usually very well done. This one as well. The third is still the best though. And it always will be.
10. American Gangster: Solid movie although it was at least 30 minutes too long. Great acting but I think the Oscar buzz is unjustified. I mean I only have it 10th so clearly I'm correct.
9. Knocked Up: Some say it was the year of Judd Apatow. I don't think I disagree. Lost a little luster on repeat viewings but it was just as good as The 40 year Old Virgin (and paced better too). But this was a strong year for comedy as you will continue to see.
8. The Simpsons Movie: What can you say that hasn't been said about The Simpsons by now? Nothing
7. Superbad: Even better than Knocked Up. I was rolling in the floor throughout.
6. Hot Fuzz: Yes Shaun of the Dead was topped with this high octane Michael Bay spoof. The conclusion was perhaps the best action scene of the year.
5. Eastern Promises: Not as strong as A History of Violence but Cronenberg is showing why he's still one of America's top directors. Viggo Mortensen better get a nom.
4. Zodiac: Some say it's David Fincher's best work. I still go with Seven. But this was scary and masterfully directed.
3. Michael Clayton: Perhaps the best ensemble acting this year. Excellent revisionist legal drama.
2. Ratatouille: Perhaps Pixar's best movie yet. Absolutely wonderful. Please see.
1. No Country For Old Men: This may be The Coens' bleakest work yet. A sad look at how random violence touches us all and there's seemingly nothing we can do about it. A brilliant gamble of an ending as well.
Now the moment you've been waiting for. The movies that I saw in 2007 ranked from worst to best.
29. Hannibal Rising: I thought Hannibal had assured itself of worst film in the franchise. It has competition now.
28. Halloween: Remakes of classic movies are always a dangerous proposition. Rob Zombie took a classic in horror and raped it to death and unleashed this hideous and completely ridiculous film on us all. May he burn in hell.
27. Ghost Rider: Certainly not the worst comic based movie I've seen. Daredevil and Batman and Robin hold that honor. But it certainly was in the bottom tier. And the director of Daredevil directed this. At least he's improving?
26. Stomp the Yard: Right after Congress passes comprehensive immigration reform, they should ban all these terrible African-American dance based movies. They are a pox on my house. A POX!
25. Alpha Dog: Bad mainly because it thought it was a better movie than it really was. Especially Sharon Stone's stunning impression of DeNiro as late LaMotta at the end. And we know Justin Timberlake is just as good a thespian as he is a musician. That is.....subpar.
24. Reno 911 Miami: Disappointing to say the least. Just couldn't keep consistent laughs throught a feature film.
23. Death Sentence: Probably better than I gave it credit for. At least it's better than the Saw movies. Still just your standard revenge fare. You didn't miss much.
22. 300: Ok guys. It wasn't that good. Get over yourself. There's much better action movies. It was pretty mediocre. I just didn't get the acclaim.
21. Disturbia: Better than you'd think for a blatant Rear Window knock off.
20. Black Sheep: Somewhat humorous horror comedy about killer sheep. Still, the idea was better than the execution.
19. Live Free Or Die Hard: Well it was better than Die Hard 2. Still you don't make a Die Hard with a PG-13 rating. You just don't. And the computer effects were the worst for a major summer film I've seen in awhile.
18. Shooter: It was ok but I still don't understand why everyone I know likes it so much.
17. The Kingdom: Fucking awesome! Kick-ass! I'm being sarcastic of course. Good at times but the ridiculous finale with the attempt at being important failed miserably.
16. Black Book: Decent WWII thriller but it seemed over the top at times.
15. Spider-Man 3: Boy what a comedown from Spider-Man 2 perhaps the best comic based movie ever. Tried to fit 2.5 movies worth of material into one. Did not succeed.
14. Transformers: I've been a longtime critic of Michael Bay. But I give props when it's due. This was his best movie so far. Not saying a lot but it was good and I enjoyed it. There I said it.
13. The Host: Good Korean horror movie. Excellent effects and use of humor although the anti-American tone was a bit much at times.
12. 28 Weeks Later: Surprisingly was just as good as the original. Who's ready for 28 Months Later?
11. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: It's hard to criticize the Potter movies. They are usually very well done. This one as well. The third is still the best though. And it always will be.
10. American Gangster: Solid movie although it was at least 30 minutes too long. Great acting but I think the Oscar buzz is unjustified. I mean I only have it 10th so clearly I'm correct.
9. Knocked Up: Some say it was the year of Judd Apatow. I don't think I disagree. Lost a little luster on repeat viewings but it was just as good as The 40 year Old Virgin (and paced better too). But this was a strong year for comedy as you will continue to see.
8. The Simpsons Movie: What can you say that hasn't been said about The Simpsons by now? Nothing
7. Superbad: Even better than Knocked Up. I was rolling in the floor throughout.
6. Hot Fuzz: Yes Shaun of the Dead was topped with this high octane Michael Bay spoof. The conclusion was perhaps the best action scene of the year.
5. Eastern Promises: Not as strong as A History of Violence but Cronenberg is showing why he's still one of America's top directors. Viggo Mortensen better get a nom.
4. Zodiac: Some say it's David Fincher's best work. I still go with Seven. But this was scary and masterfully directed.
3. Michael Clayton: Perhaps the best ensemble acting this year. Excellent revisionist legal drama.
2. Ratatouille: Perhaps Pixar's best movie yet. Absolutely wonderful. Please see.
1. No Country For Old Men: This may be The Coens' bleakest work yet. A sad look at how random violence touches us all and there's seemingly nothing we can do about it. A brilliant gamble of an ending as well.
Go away 2008
My portfolio is not enjoying 2008 thus far. Today was even worse then yesterday. Especially since the market was generally flat while my portfolio crashed and burned yet again. At least CHCI was up nearly 20% today. A 30% gain since Christmas isn't too bad. I'm sure I'm speaking too soon though. Tomorrow already looks like a downer as Bed Bath and Beyond reported bad earnings. Currently it's down more than 8% after hours. And I'm already down nearly 30% on that investment. Considering liquidating that position for something else. Genesis Microchip was down more than 1% today. Normally I wouldn't mention that, but it's in the process of being bought out. That makes me wonder if the deal is in trouble. In a way I'd be glad, since I think it's worth nearly double what the buyout is for. Of course if the deal isn't in trouble, it might be time for someone to do some merger arbitrage. I mean if the deal goes through and you buy today, not including commissions that's better than 3% profit. Not too shabby. I won't make that bet though. Cause I'm a pansy.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Stuck Inside of Lenoir with the Hickory Blues Again
Saw two new movies from 2007 last night. Updating movie rankings list. It's coming soon, I promise.
The stock market opened with a bang. Unfortunately the bang was a self-inflicted gunshot wound. I was down 1.64% today. Not the way I wanted to put 2007 behind me.
Since my predictions are generally completely off the mark (yes I majored in economics. Why do you ask?), I have decided to predict who wins the Iowa caucuses.
For the Democrats, I think the final polls have been showing a strengthening Obama. Expect him to win. It's possible that if nonviable candidates break one way for Clinton or Edwards they could beat him. But Clinton is very few people's second choice. You either love her or hate her. And do I really think enough would shift to Edwards and not go to Obama? No. So Obama finishes first but I think Clinton beats Edwards potentially with a deal with Richardson's urging his supporters to go for Clinton. This could be wishful thinking though as I hate John Edwards. Oh well.
On the Republican side, we have a two person race between Mitt "I won't take a position unless I hold a focus group" Romney vs Mike Huckleberry Hound. Yes I know that's insulting, because Huckleberry Hound would be a viable candidate and it's not fair to compare him to Mike Huckabee. However, I will go out on a limb and predict that Mike Huckabee does hold on and win Iowa. He's done all he could to ruin his lead with some of the most bizarre tactics in recent memory. But, I think he will just nip Romney giving Mitt a devastating loss. It may not knock Mitt out but it will make New Hampshire all the more important for him. And who finishes 3rd between Giuliani, Thompson, McCain, and Paul. A tough call. It would be a big win for all of them. I will go on yet another limb and say the order is Paul, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani.
Not counting candidates who I've not mentioned, these results will cause John Edwards and Fred Thompson to drop out perhaps not immediately after Iowa but soon after. Giuliani won't drop out because he's going for a more national strategy and didn't put much effort into Iowa. However, the 6th place finish will make him look bad.
No New Hampshire picks yet because that can be dependent on momentum from Iowa. But if I had to choose today, I'd say Clinton and McCain win New Hampshire.
The stock market opened with a bang. Unfortunately the bang was a self-inflicted gunshot wound. I was down 1.64% today. Not the way I wanted to put 2007 behind me.
Since my predictions are generally completely off the mark (yes I majored in economics. Why do you ask?), I have decided to predict who wins the Iowa caucuses.
For the Democrats, I think the final polls have been showing a strengthening Obama. Expect him to win. It's possible that if nonviable candidates break one way for Clinton or Edwards they could beat him. But Clinton is very few people's second choice. You either love her or hate her. And do I really think enough would shift to Edwards and not go to Obama? No. So Obama finishes first but I think Clinton beats Edwards potentially with a deal with Richardson's urging his supporters to go for Clinton. This could be wishful thinking though as I hate John Edwards. Oh well.
On the Republican side, we have a two person race between Mitt "I won't take a position unless I hold a focus group" Romney vs Mike Huckleberry Hound. Yes I know that's insulting, because Huckleberry Hound would be a viable candidate and it's not fair to compare him to Mike Huckabee. However, I will go out on a limb and predict that Mike Huckabee does hold on and win Iowa. He's done all he could to ruin his lead with some of the most bizarre tactics in recent memory. But, I think he will just nip Romney giving Mitt a devastating loss. It may not knock Mitt out but it will make New Hampshire all the more important for him. And who finishes 3rd between Giuliani, Thompson, McCain, and Paul. A tough call. It would be a big win for all of them. I will go on yet another limb and say the order is Paul, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani.
Not counting candidates who I've not mentioned, these results will cause John Edwards and Fred Thompson to drop out perhaps not immediately after Iowa but soon after. Giuliani won't drop out because he's going for a more national strategy and didn't put much effort into Iowa. However, the 6th place finish will make him look bad.
No New Hampshire picks yet because that can be dependent on momentum from Iowa. But if I had to choose today, I'd say Clinton and McCain win New Hampshire.
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