Saw two new movies from 2007 last night. Updating movie rankings list. It's coming soon, I promise.
The stock market opened with a bang. Unfortunately the bang was a self-inflicted gunshot wound. I was down 1.64% today. Not the way I wanted to put 2007 behind me.
Since my predictions are generally completely off the mark (yes I majored in economics. Why do you ask?), I have decided to predict who wins the Iowa caucuses.
For the Democrats, I think the final polls have been showing a strengthening Obama. Expect him to win. It's possible that if nonviable candidates break one way for Clinton or Edwards they could beat him. But Clinton is very few people's second choice. You either love her or hate her. And do I really think enough would shift to Edwards and not go to Obama? No. So Obama finishes first but I think Clinton beats Edwards potentially with a deal with Richardson's urging his supporters to go for Clinton. This could be wishful thinking though as I hate John Edwards. Oh well.
On the Republican side, we have a two person race between Mitt "I won't take a position unless I hold a focus group" Romney vs Mike Huckleberry Hound. Yes I know that's insulting, because Huckleberry Hound would be a viable candidate and it's not fair to compare him to Mike Huckabee. However, I will go out on a limb and predict that Mike Huckabee does hold on and win Iowa. He's done all he could to ruin his lead with some of the most bizarre tactics in recent memory. But, I think he will just nip Romney giving Mitt a devastating loss. It may not knock Mitt out but it will make New Hampshire all the more important for him. And who finishes 3rd between Giuliani, Thompson, McCain, and Paul. A tough call. It would be a big win for all of them. I will go on yet another limb and say the order is Paul, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani.
Not counting candidates who I've not mentioned, these results will cause John Edwards and Fred Thompson to drop out perhaps not immediately after Iowa but soon after. Giuliani won't drop out because he's going for a more national strategy and didn't put much effort into Iowa. However, the 6th place finish will make him look bad.
No New Hampshire picks yet because that can be dependent on momentum from Iowa. But if I had to choose today, I'd say Clinton and McCain win New Hampshire.
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