The List of Eight: 2007 Edition

I've picked each of the first round games. We're a little over 24 hours away from tipoff to March Madness (if you didn't count the play-in game). Now it is time to reveal The List of Eight.

What is the List of Eight? Back in 2001, my father said that the NCAA Tournament was completely random and was not an accurate representation of the best team. I disagreed saying while the best team didn't always win, the team that emerged victorious was deserving to be called national champion. I also said it wasn't as much of a crapshoot as he believed. He challenged me that to pick eight teams at the start of the tournament out of the possible 64/65. He said that he would take the remaining field. That year four teams from my list into the Final Four. Thus the challenege was born. This year I will be going for the seventh straight year of winning this challenge. Here are the basic rules in case you didn't totally understand.

1. I pick eight teams. One of them MUST win the national title for me to declare victory. If seven of eight lose in the first round, it is not fair to mock me for I have one team remaining. Likewise, if I have seven of eight teams left, it would make no sense to brag too much, as the one remaining wild card can defeat me in the challenge. There are no bonus points for how far they advance. A team from the list MUST win the title or I lose.

2. These are not necessarily who I think are the best teams. Depending on matchups, I may choose teams I feel to be generally inferior but who may have a favorable draw.

3. There is no maximum or minimum number of teams I can choose in each regional. I may choose zero in a given region. I may choose eight in a region. It is my choice. However, as I am doing this year, I will generally pick two from each region. This seems to be a way to "diversify" for a favorable outcome.

I think that about covers the rules. Now for the list of teams that I GUARANTEE the national champion will come from. In alphabetical order...

Florida 29-5 #1 Midwest
Why they could win it: Because they won the national title last year and it's basically the same team. Although they are not the most talented team in the nation, the vast majority in this field would love to have players like Joakim Noah and Al Horford. Any team who meets the Gators are going to be a little intimidated just because it's the defending national champs. They won by an average of 16 points per game in the tourney this last year. Billy Donovan is one of the finest coaches in the college game. Also I picked them to win it all in the preseason.
Why they won't: Because winning two in a row is damn hard to do. It's happened once since the UCLA dynasy under John Wooden. It's not happened since Duke did it 1992 and Duke needed a perfect performance and a miracle from Laettner just to get to the Final Four. Also Florida is better than last year, but so is every other major contender. This year's field is much stronger than last year and I seriously doubt Florida will win by 16 a game. During the latter part of the season Florida was badly losing to teams like a very weak LSU. Were they playing possum or was it a sign of future struggles?

Georgetown 26-6 #2 East
Why they could win it: You wouldn't know it by their low point totals but Georgetown has one of the premiere offenses in the country. They just play at such a grinding tempo that it doesn't reflect in the scoreboard. But try to stop them from scoring. While I think the defense is a bit overrated, it's not like it's bad either. And with the temp the Hoyas play, if you don't execute on offense you can expect to lose 35 seconds and a point or two. I especially like their bracket set-up. Although, they're a #2 seed, Georgetown may be more likely than some of the #1 seeds to get to the Elite Eight. They're also of the hottest teams having won 15 of their last 16.
Why they won't: Potential matchup problems. If a team that is multi-faceted can play the Hoyas they could cause some troubles. I don't see it coming until the Sweet 16 or later, but a team that has some good shooters from 3 and a big guy down low will be able to keep up with the Hoyas.

Kansas 30-4 #1 West
Why the could win it: One of the two most talented teams in the country. There's so many guys who can score that it's very easy for even the best teams to be down early. And if you get up by a lot, don't expect the lead to last as witnessed by the Big 12 Title game. I think they have the best defense in the country as well. Bill Self is a fine coach
Why they won't: Bill Self is concerned because they don't have an Acie Law type player. Meaning, although they have a lot of talent, they don't have one go-to-guy down in the stretch. Who takes the shot in a close game down by 1? Kansas may get lucky and be able to blowout everybody on the way to the title...but I doubt it. They need to find someone they can trust ina tight ball game. Also, are the first round jitters over for this team. They haven't advanced out of the first round in two years. Being a #1 seed should change that but if Niagara stays around longer than expected, keep that in mind because there could be trouble.

North Carolina 28-6 #1 East
Why they could win it: North Carolina is the only team that may be more talented than Kansas. They have guys on the bench who could start for most teams. Both their offense and defense are great (although the defense is sometimes inconsistent). Roy Williams has so much talent, he makes subs constantly, and will gradually wear down less talented foes. So many different weapons in so many different ways.
Why they won't: They're young and could definitely lose to a team they shouldn't. Cough NC State. As I said, on defense when UNC is good it's a clampdown. When they're not...they can be beaten. With so much youth, they probably want to blow out teams. But what will happen to the young'uns when they get smacked in the mouth by say...Michigan State, Texas or Georgetown?

Ohio State 30-3 #1 South
Why they could win it: They are multi-faceted. They can beat you from behind the three point line. They could pass it in to Greg Oden who will likely be the #1 NBA pick next draft. And they're not dependent on one player. Greg Oden didn't have a shot in the first half against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. They won by 17. How many teams can do that against a team like Wisconsin? They also might be wanting to prove somethng since I think they got snubbed for the #1 overall seed.
Why they won't: Is Oden 100% yet. His wrist has bothered him all season. If it is causing trouble in a tight game it could be the end for the Buckeyes. Pretty inexperienced in the postseason as well. They lost by 26 to Florida. Granted Oden was a lot weaker than he is now. But teams don't lose like that and win the national title. It generally just does not happen.

Texas A&M 25-6 #3 South
Why they could win it: I've been praising them for a year, you think I'm jumping ship now? The Aggies can fluster the best opponents on defense. But just because they are great on defense, don't think they can light it up on you either as their offense is one of the best in the country. Like Kansas, playing in the Big 12 this year inspired many memorable close games. That should be great battle-testing for the NCAAs. Is there a more clutch player than Acie Law? It's gotten to the point that if it's a close game, I expect him to hit a three. I'm legitimately shocked when he misses.
Why they won't: Depth is an issue. Good chance there will be some foul trouble in at least one game. Too dependent on Law? If Law is shut down, there's not much more scoring options for this team. Of course shutting down Law is easier said than done.

UCLA 26-5 #2 West
Why they could win it: If they can play like last year, UCLA has one of the most tenacious and mind-boggling defenses in the country. Only Florida was able to solve it. Very balanced offense. Coach Ben Howland has clearly gotten UCLA into a position where they can dream of national championships like the Wooden days.
Why they won't: If you can get the tempo high, you can beat the Bruins. They want to slow the game down but get them out of their comfort zone and they could be out. Not as deep as some of the other teams on this list. They only lost five times this year but their losses weren't to teams I consider strong. An overseeded #3 Oregon. A #11 Stanford. West Virginia, California and Washington who didn't even make the NCAAs. Doesn't bode well.

Wisconsin 29-5 #2 Midwest
Why they could win it: The Badgers are another team that likes to play a slow pace, lull the opponent to sleep, and then get an easy basket. Repeated long possessions on defense can wear a team out. They have a style that many teams will be befuddled against. Alando Tucker is one of the best players in the nation. Very few can respond with a player of his talent.
Why they won't: Without Brian Butch, this team is much weaker. Their leading rebounder and third leading scorer fractured his shoulder against Ohio State and the ebst case scenario is that he could return for the Final Four? But will that be too late. Without him the losses have piled up compared to the rest of the season. Not the strongest free throw shooting team.

Well that's the list that the national champion will come from. Here are a few of the other teams I considered and why I didn't include them.

Memphis: Very talented and Calipari is a fine coach. But I think they're still a year away and I'm not certain if they'll be ready to step up to NCAA level competition as they've played one NCAA team since Christmas. Still, this was the last team I excluded. They're my pick if anyone screws up the challenge.
Maryland: One of the hotter teams in the country until the Miami loss, I'm impressed with the Terps. Another team that could pose problems, but compared to the top tier, Maryland just doesn't cut it for me.
Duke: Better than you think. And it might be a mistake to pick against Coach K. I actually think they'll win a couple of games. But the last time they won six straight this year was Jan 2.
Pittsburgh: Another solid year for Pitt. Their bracket really hurt their chances as they could face Duke, UCLA, and Kansas just to get to the Final Four.
Texas: I decided that Durant who is easily the best player in the country would have to score 30-40 points a game this tourney for them to have a chance to win it all. Which is entirely possible but I figure at least one team can solve him. And Rick Barnes has clearly shown he doesn't know how to coach this team. I've picked Texas twice in the last four years to win it all and I won't be burned this time.
Notre Dame: Everyone is picking Winthrop to beat them. I like this Irish team though. I don't think they have the talent to compete with the top tier, but if Butch isn't back for Wisconsin, they could be an Elite Eight team.
Georgia Tech: Last year I chose Texas A&M. If you want a team that's a #10 seed or lower that can win it all, I endorse Ga Tech. I have them out in the second round, but like Notre Dame, in this bracket I could see them getting to the Elite Eight.

And now before I go...here are my Final Four picks.

Midwest: Florida (The defending champs will be too strong and focused to fall short of the Final Four in this bracket)
West: Kansas (I really like this Kansas team a lot. They're so talented I can't ignore them.)
East: North Carolina (Same as Kansas. )
South: Ohio State (I wanted to pick Texas A&M. But I'm torn in the potential Memphis matchup. So I'll choose Ohio State because I think they have the easiest road of any team for the first three rounds)

Yes that's right I'm being a pansy and picking four #1 seeds. I don't normally do that. I fully expect at least one to lose before the Final Four, but I'm not sure which one to pick to lose. So I'll be safe. For the national championship I have Kansas meeting North Carolina in a match-up between the two most talented teams and Roy Williams coaching against his former team. In the end, as much as I hate to admit it, I think that North Carolina will come out on top and give Roy and his boys their 2nd national title in the last three years.

Enjoy March Madness!