Sunday, March 23, 2008

SWEET SIXTEEN!

Sorry I didn't post how I thought games would go. Life has been busy so I haven't had much time. Hopefully there will be time where I can reflect on that and talk more but for now let's check out my List of 8 and how my teams are looking.



Duke: Clearly a bad choice. Never looked good in a nailbiter against Belmont and then in a loss to West Virginia. Clearly a team that had no frontcourt presence to balance the perimeter attack was not a legitimate contender. Fortunately that is my only bad choice thus far.



Kansas: No issues. Blew out Portland State and easily dispatched UNLV. The way the bracket is breaking down seems to be in Kansas's favor so I am just as bullish.



Louisville: Was wondering if this was a bad pick as well but after a 30 point shellacking of Oklahoma, the Cardinals are looking pretty good. I like their chances to advance at least one more round.



Memphis: Nearly let it slip away against Mississippi State today. But it's survive and advance. And to get to San Antonio, they will have to survive as all the tough teams are still alive in the South bracket. Need to start hitting free throws.



North Carolina: Still think think they are the weakest #1 seed. But so far they have been impressive.

Texas: Let Miami give them a scare but they are still alive. Need to kick play up a notch.

UCLA: Texas A&M nearly pulled it off but UCLA survived and now seem to have an easy road to San Antonio as their bracket has been busted.

Wisconsin: Have looked outstanding with wins against Cal State Fullerton and Kansas State. No reason to doubt their chances thus far.

So their are nine teams left who can break my streak.

Washington State: I should have included them. Have looked absolutely dominating with humiliations of Winthrop and Notre Dame. North Carolina better be ready to play.
Tennessee: Escaped against Butler but looked weak at times. I think Louisville ends their chances next round. If not, UNC or Wazzu will.
Villanova: Are here because Clemson blew an 18 point lead and Siena played terribly. Don't expect Kansas to be so accomodating.
Davidson: Stephen Curry has scored 30, 40, and 30 in his first three NCAA Tourney games. It's been a magic ride for Davidson, but I think he scores a tournament low for him as Davidson is knocked out by Wisconsin.
Michigan State: The Spartans have looked good so far. I think Memphis knocks them out but if Memphis can't hit free throws, the Spartans can win. Probably the weakest team left in the South though.
Stanford: Escaped against a tough Marquette game. Could beat Texas in a virtual coin flip game.
Western Kentucky: Needed a miracle three against Drake and nearly let San Diego come back to bea them. The Hilltoppers go out against UCLA.
Xavier: Xavier has looked good so far and their chances seem to have improved as they don't have to play Duke. Of course West Virginia is playing well so maybe they wanted Duke.
West Virginia: Xavier and WVU is a coinflip game. Either team could make the Elite 8. But I figure they play UCLA the next round and lose.

So my list is looking pretty solid so far. Obviously I should have had a team like Washington State or Stanford instead of Duke. Oh well. Here is how I would rank the 16 teams remaining on quality. Not based on chances of winning it all.

1. Kansas
2. UCLA
3. Wisconsin
4. Memphis
5. North Carolina
6. Washington State
7. Louisville
8. Texas
9. Stanford
10. Michigan State
11. Tennessee
12. Xavier
13. West Virginia
14. Davidson
15. Villanova
16. Western Kentucky

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

List of Eight: 2008

It is time to reveal the 8th Annual List of 8. Before we start here’s a recap of what the List of 8 as published in my blog last year.

What is the List of Eight? Back in 2001, my father said that the NCAA Tournament was completely random and was not an accurate representation of the best team. I disagreed saying while the best team didn't always win, the team that emerged victorious deserved to be called national champion. I also said it wasn't as much of a crapshoot as he believed. He challenged me that to pick eight teams at the start of the tournament out of the possible 64/65. He said that he would take the remaining field. That year, four teams from my list made it to the Final Four. Thus the challenge was born. This year I will be going for the eighth straight year of winning this challenge. Here are the basic rules in case you didn't totally understand.1. I pick eight teams. One of them MUST win the national title for me to declare victory. If seven of eight lose in the first round, it is not fair to mock me for I have one team remaining. Likewise, if I have seven of eight teams left, it would make no sense to brag too much, as the one remaining wild card can defeat me in the challenge. There are no bonus points for how far they advance. A team from the list MUST win the title or I lose.2. These are not necessarily who I think are the best teams. Depending on matchups, I may choose teams I feel to be generally inferior but who may have a favorable draw.3. There is no maximum or minimum number of teams I can choose in each regional. I may choose zero in a given region. I may choose eight in a region. It is my choice. However, as I am doing this year, I will generally pick two from each region. This seems to be a way to "diversify" for a favorable outcome.

Now that the rules are out of the way, time to reveal the list from which the NCAA champion will emerge.

Duke 27-5 #2 West
Why they could win it: Because they’re ready for blood after last year’s embarrassing first round exit against VCU. With Coach K at the helm, would you bet on a second straight early exit? Duke has a deadly three point shooting touch when they’re hot and can frustrate the best offense with their turnover forcing defense.
Why they won’t win it: Duke struggled down the stretch going 5-4, so teams may have figured out the way to beat them. Since they lost Josh McRoberts to the NBA, the Blue Devils can be exploited for lack of size against the wrong opponent. If this happens in a game where Duke is ice cold, it could be a very early exit.

Kansas 31-3 #1 Midwest
Why they could win it: I think they’re the best team in the nation. With Chalmers, Arthur and Co and Bill Self coaching, this is my favorite to win it all. The only team to have a top 3 offense and defense (1st in Offense and 3rd in Defense according to Ken Pomeroy). If aren’t ready to play at the beginning, then you will be down bunches early.
Why they won’t win it: I think the team is so good that they get bored and lose focus. If they do and play a team that doesn’t back down and can stay in it, they could lose. But the underdog will need to get the crowd behind them. If it’s a Kansas crowd, I don’t see the Jayhawks getting knocked out before San Antonio.

Louisville 24-8 #3 East
Why they could win it: Rick Pitino is one of the best coaches in the game. The draw is favorable as I think Tennessee is the weakest #2 seed. One of the strongest defenses in the nation.
Why they won’t win it: Probably the weakest offensive team among the major contenders. Some very concerning losses in the regular season such as Cincinnati and Seton Hall.

Memphis 33-1 #1 South
Why they could win it: After two straight years of just missing the list, the Tigers storm on this year. This is a loaded team and nearly didn’t break a sweat during the regular season. Ferocious defense, outstanding rebounding and two of the top 10 players in the nation. What’s not to like?
Why they won’t win it: Their free shooting for instance. They were one of the bottom five in the NATION. And it cost them against Tennessee. Free throws don’t matter if you’re winning by 20. But Memphis will have at least one tough game on their way to a title. And if they’re not hitting free throws, they are in trouble. The three point shooting is also inconsistent. Expect to see lots of zone against this team. Are they ready since they have played in such a weak conference all season long.

North Carolina 32-2 #1 East
Why they could win it: I think Michael Beasley is the best player in the country. But Tyler Hansbrough is a very close 2nd. And the rest of the cast is stellar. Not sure any team other than Kansas or Memphis is comfortable playing at the pace the Tar Heels will be playing at.
Why they won’t win it: I can’t put my finger on it…but this team doesn’t really look like a 2 loss team to me. They’ve done really well, but I am not convinced they are on the same level as the other #1 seeds. Roy Williams has shown he can win the big one, but sometimes as with Georgetown last year, he gets completely outcoached. Like Kansas, I think this team sometimes thinks they are better than they really are. Brutal draw with a potential game against Indiana in the second round. Inconsistent on defense.

Texas 28-6 #2 South
Why they could win it: Having D.J. Augustin helps. The only team to beat both Kansas and UCLA. They’re one of the best offenses in the country and although they might be the weakest defense amongst the contenders, they are improving.
Why they won’t win it: I think Rick Barnes is a heck of a recruiter. I’m not sure if he is one of the elite coaches. They’re weak in rebounding. If you can control the guards, you have a chance to win.

UCLA 31-3 #1 West
Why they could win it: Well Florida can’t beat them. The Gators have knocked the Bruins out the last two years. No Gator bait this time. Kevin Love is a strong candidate for Player of the Year as a freshman. The Bruins won the Pac-10 by 3 full games. Their defense can make the best team look like a bad high school JV squad.
Why they won’t win it: Control their three point shooting and get the starters in trouble and you have a chance. Easier said than done but that’s the way it is.

Wisconsin 29-4 #3
Why they could win it: How is this team a #3 seed? They won the Big 10 regular season and postseason tournament. Bo Ryan is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and with the best defense in the country and a frustratingly slow pace, the Badgers just get the job done.
Why they won’t win it: Play fast. The Badgers don’t like it. They allowed more than 70 points three times this season. They lost all 3. The Blowout Rule may be in effect. Teams generally don’t win national titles with losses of 20 or more in the regular season. As Duke beat them 82-58, that is a concern.
Now that the teams have been selected, let’s look at a few I considered but eliminated for various reasons.

Georgetown: Tough draw with Kansas and Wisconsin. Also not sure if this team is as Final Four caliber as last year’s was. Probably the team most dangerous of ruining the list though.
Washington State: A team that loves to play slow and is good at. But if they get behind, it’s hard for them to come back playing that way.
Stanford: Stanford is certainly capable of going on a run. Might have made the list but the matchups look hard throughout their region especially with a potential second round date with Marquette. Watch out for the Cardinal though.
Tennessee: Some will be shocked I didn’t include them. I’m just not sold. They’re a good team but there are better choices in my view.
Marquette: Similar to Stanford in they are very good but difficult matchups await. Kentucky will be a tough out. The most dangerous seed lower than 4 in the field.
Clemson: The Tigers have proven they could be a dark horse pick with three outstanding games against UNC. But in a bracket with Kansas, I just don’t see them going very far. But don’t be surprised if they make a run.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

MARCH MADNESS

Just realized I haven't been updating my blog as of late. What happens when you get so busy. But what better time then the start of the NCAA Tournament? I'll of course be picking my annual List of 8 and picking every game from here on out. Just to get started, let's predict Tuesday's 64/65 game.

Mount St. Mary's vs Coppin State: Not really sure how Mount St. Mary's ended up in this game. They're clearly one of the weaker teams in the tournament. I would have thought Mississippi Valley State would have been here, but I guess the committee is leery of putting two historically black colleges in the play-in, even though both the MEAC and the SWAC are generally the two worst conferences in the country. Oh well. Coppin State certainly went on a run at the end of the season winning 12 of their last 13. Still, Coppin is the first 20 loss team to make the tourney. I doubt they will be the first to win a game especially because I think Mount St. Mary's is significantly better. Expect an easy win for Mount St. Mary's as they advance to be Tar Heel fodder.
Mount St. Mary's 70 Coppin State 58

Saturday, February 23, 2008

What a relief

Module 2 (of 3) of my first year in the MBA program has ended. I have heard the third module is easy. Hopefully so. The last one nearly killed me! Haha!

Exciting day in college basketball ahead. Bracket Busters where the mid-majors shine! MEMPHIS-TENNESSEE! And even more importantly, New Jersey Institute of Technology goes for the big goose egg. If they lose to 13-14 Utah Valley State (which is likely) they will finish the season 0-29. Congrats guys!

Speaking of Memphis-Tennessee, I don't think the game will be as close as the pundits are predicting. I say Memphis wins by double digits. Tennessee is deserving of their #2 ranking based on their record, but there a lot of teams who would beat them in a one game scenario. Barring a performance I'm not expecting today, I don't think they'll go far in March. Memphis is much more likely to be a champion although there are a few teams (Kansas and UCLA) I think are better. Memphis's offense is a little weak at times and their free throw shooting is abysmal. Can a team that can't shoot 60% from the stripe be a national champion? I'm concerned.

Appalachian and William & Mary taking part in Bracket Busters today. App will be taking on Niagara and the Tribe host Loyola Chicago. I'm disappointed with W&M as I thought they had a good chance for a top 4 seed in the Colonial which would give them a first round bye. After a three game losing streak to Northeastern, UNC-W, and Towson, and with games remaining against George Mason and VCU, I have a feeeling that chance is over.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Oscar Ballot Time

I'm finished with my second set of exams. And Ashley has been harassing me so I have to embarass her yet again. It's time for our 962nd Annual Oscar Pool. I'm on a 961 year winning streak. So let's go to my picks!

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Cohen
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress: Julie Christie
Animated Film: Ratatouille
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett
Original Screenplay: Juno
Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Foreign Language Film: Beaufort
Art Direction: Atonement
Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Costume Design: Atonement
Documentary: Sicko
Documentary Short: Freeheld
Makeup: La Vie En Rose
Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Score: Atonement
Song: Falling Slowly
Short Animated Film:Even Pigeons Go to heaven
Live Action Short: The Tonto Woman
Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Sound Mixing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Visual Effects: Transformers

Thursday, February 14, 2008

I like saying words like McGuffins in class

I love how everyone is so quick to make quick judgments during case discussions during our classes. I'm 23 years old and sometimes I feel like I'm the only one who is actually trying to read between the lines.

Of course I'm a self-righteous ass so that could have something to do with it.

I have an interview with an investment bank tomorrow. Two interviews in a week? Perhaps this internship search will pay off after all.

Another mass shooting in America, this time at Northern Illinois University. At least six dead. I am so sick and tired of the politicians not doing anything to try to solve this problem. I'm not saying that guns should be outlawed (unlike my brother) but steps need to be taken to at least keep firearms out of the hands of mentally ill people. I am not sure if this situation makes me cry so hard it makes me mad, or if it makes me so mad I cry. One of the two.

The Obama rally was interesting. Not really great for a vantage point. But it doesn't change my opinion of him. Hopefully he will be the Democratic nominee and then we can have Obama-McCain. I would vote for McCain today but it's a slight edge and there is a lot of time left in the ballgame. And maybe Bloomberg will run! Looking less likely though. Oh well.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

I'm a little inconsistent

I blame school for the inconsistency of my blog. I try to do better but then we get about a dozen assignments to turn in at the last minute. Oh well!

How about that Super Bowl? I did pick the Giants to beat the spread but I am still surprised they ruined the Pats' season. I'm just not ready for a world where Eli is a Super Bowl champ. It's not right!

I have an interview with IBM tomorrow. Wish me luck.

Is the Running Grammy Diary coming to an end after two spectacular years? I fear so. Because I have just been informed that Barack Obama will be speaking in Virginia Beach tonight. So I may be attending that. Sorry Robyn! It seems there will be no irreverent and irrelevant comments about the Grammys this year.

I went and bought a suit at S&K yesterday (mainly to get rid of a giftcard) and it was one of the more unusual experiences I have had in awhile. The salesmen seemed more like used car salesmen than usual. And also when I was buying my merchandise, the apparent manager kept treating the man who was ringing me up (and was not very young mind you) like an incompetent. Apparently I got a percentage off because he started using a coupon that I did not even bring into the store. And the manager was threatening to kick the guy's butt if he made a mistake again. And I'm not sure if he was joking. I would laugh at his comments but it was more out of nervousness than anything. The manager seemed overall pretty rude, but I must endorse that if you want to buy a suit and get some weird theatre along with the purchase, than S&K in Williamsburg is the place to be.

I played the Wii last night for the first time. It was quite fun! Although I suck at bowling. And golf. And baseball. And I'm ok at tennis as long as I don't play Sammi.

Ok time to take a shower. Later! Hopefully not till next week this time.