O-VER-RAT-ED

Two years ago, Georgia Tech was coming off a trip to the national championship game and was returning most of their team. Everyone (including yours truly) picked them to be a major contender for the title. I thought they'd make the Final Four. Yet they struggled all season long yet still ended up with a #4 seed in the tourney. Suddenly, all the commentators and talking heads forgot about the season and declared Georgia Tech a dark horse championship contender. Having learned my lesson and being an ACC fan I had watched them all season. Me and my brother agreed that this was ludicrous and that we didn't know exactly what had happened but Georgia Tech would not be a serious contender. They won their first game but then got blitzed by a criminally underseeded Louisville team in the 2nd round.

Why am I telling this story? Because something similar happened last year and I think it might be an interesting trend to observe when the field is selected. Michigan State came into the year last year also highly touted. Top ten by most and I believe #1 in the Sporting News. But they struggled and ended up with a #6 seed. The same thing happened. Everyone said watch out for Michigan State. I scoffed and saw they would have to likely play UNC in the 2nd round and said they wouldn't make the second weekend. I was right...just wrong team. They were "upset" by George Mason in the first round. I didn't pick it but I didn't bat an eye either.

So who will this year's Georgia Tech and Michigan State? A team that was highly touted but was less than great all season? A team that comes into the tournament with a fairly lower seed (#4-#7) and then everybody proclaims them a dark horse even though they have little chance of winning even two games let alone six. There's a couple I could pick. Perhaps Syracuse or Connecticut? None were incredibly highly ranked though and I would venture to guess they'll both be in the NIT. Maybe Washington in the Pac-10? Getting closer. I don't think they were a preseason favorite either though. No I'm going with two SEC teams who were both near consensus Top 10. The only question is if they can get in and get a fairly high seed.

Louisiana State was coming off a Final Four season. They returned Glen Davis who reminds many of a young Shaquille O'Neal. They were losing two starters in Tyrus Thomas and Darrel Mitchell but many thought they'd be a contender along with Florida and the other team I'll mention. Things haven't worked out though. They're 13-9 and mired in last place in the SEC West. With wins against Connecticut and Texas A&M they still have talent. But they've lost 5 straight (at the time of this post losing again). Losing Tyrus Thomas who I thought was the best NBA prospect for last year's draft hurt, but the loss of Mitchell has killed them even worse. The only thing that could stop them from being this year's under-achiever is actually not making the Tournament. And unless they quickly turn things around that won't happen. Which is why at this point in time, this year's Georgia Tech/Michigan State may be...

The Alabama Crimson Tide. At first glance their record looks fairly impressive. 17-5. But look closer. The 4-4 record in the SEC is a clue. Now being .500 in a tough league like the SEC is nothing to be ashamed of. Look at their first three road games though. Against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Auburn they lost all three by a combined 263-191. That's 72 points in three games. And none of those three are even the class of the conference like a Florida or a Kentucky. The ranking of Alabama has been utterly ridiculous all year long. I thought they'd be good too but it's time to look at the performance. This year the SEC is beating up on each other though so it's not like they're far behind everyone else (except the aforementioned Florida and Kentucky). They actually have a chance to make a run with their remaining schedule but I would look closely at what happens before getting too excited. I think it's more likely that they finish around .500 in the conference and then everybody tells you how Alabama can make a run this year. And if this comes to pass, know that I'll have a smirk on my face and 'Bama crossed out in my bracket.