Super Bowl Prediction

It's time for the moment of truth. According to the latest line, Indianapolis is favored by 6.5 points. So if I pick the Colts I think they will win by at least a touchdown. If I pick the Bears, as long as Chicago wins or loses by less than a touchdown I 'm good. So what's my pick?

DA BEARS!!!

Why am I picking the Bears?

1. I know the AFC was better than the NFC this year. But the Bears are the #1 seed in the NFC. The Colts were #3. Nothing against the Colts. They deserve to be here. In fact they might be better than the Bears. But do I think the third best team in the superior AFC is a touchdown or more better than the best team in the NFC? I'm not so sure. Plus the Bears outscored the AFC teams they played 76-55.

2. Everyone is picking the Colts. That concerns me. Remember what happened last week? I was on the Saints' bandwagon but noticed everybody was picking the Saints to win. So I chose the Bears. Chicago responded by blowing them out. In gambling, if everybody is choosing one team to win, it's generally a good idea to go contrarian.

3. Has everyone forgot how dominant the Bears were this regular season. And how mediocre the Colts looked at times? I haven't.

4. Nobody has been more guilty of criticizing Rex Grossman's inconsistent (and sometimes just plain bad) play at quarterback. But guess what! The Bears are 15-3 this year. Is he really that bad? In fact look at Manning and Grossman's QB rating this postseason. Grossman is actually playing better as measured by that statistic.

5. Both defenses have played outstanding in the playoffs. But honestly....if one defense outplays the other...would you bet it'd be Indy. I wouldn't. I think Chicago's defense is more likely to force Manning to make mistakes than Indy to force Grossman.

6. Devin Hester. In a tightly contested game, special teams can make the difference. It can change the momentum drastically. Remember when Desmond Howard won the MVP for the Packers? Could rookie Devin Hester make a big return at some point propelling the Bears to the win? Perhaps.

I've mentioned the reasons why I think the Bears will win. And I actually do think the Bears will win the Super Bowl tonight. The fact that the line is so much in the Colts' favor makes this look like a pretty easy pick for me. Of course watch the Colts win by 28 now. But I'm going with...

Chicago (+6.5) over Indianapolis