College Basketball Contenders and Pretenders

There is only one undefeated team left in Division I (all those who had Clemson raise your hand. Anybody?) so I thought it was an appropriate time to make judgements on which teams that have gotten the most press are contenders for the national title and which are not serious. I'll also pick a few teams that we still need some information on. Here goes...

Contenders:

Butler 14-1: I'm not sure if a mid-major will be a contender this year. But I'm going to put one on the list because they've looked good so far. Wins against Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Kent State, Purdue and Evansville. And you say a mid-major won't contend. I disagree.

Duke 13-2: My grandfather is a huge Duke fan. Every year he seems to think that Duke "doesn't have it." He says it this year as well. At first glance he looks correct. But look again. Although Duke has struggled in nearly every game they've played they have nearly pulled out a victory in every one. The only ones that they didn't pull out were to solid teams in Marquette and Virginia Tech (the latter they nearly won. They have the best defense and the best coach in the country. Their offense is a little worrisome but it's not as bad as you think. They're scrappy and they won't lose without a fight.

Florida 14-2: The defending champions. Only losses are to fellow contender Kansas in overtime and to rival Florida State on the road. The blowout of Ohio State shows that they'll be the team to beat in March.

Kansas 12-2: Been under the radar since the loss to DePaul (not as bad as you'd think) but they've been smacking teams left and right. Only thing that concerns me is if they show up for the first week of the tournament. They haven't the past two years.

Memphis 11-3: Not many talked about them in the preseason but the Memphis Tigers will be a contender again this year. Should pile up another gaudy record in the weak C-USA.

North Carolina 13-1: This is unusual. All my preseason Final Four contenders still look extremely serious as contenders. The list in case you don't remember was Florida, UNC, Kansas and UCLA. Kansas looks the weakest but they're still pretty darn good. Off subject a little sorry. UNC will probably be the class of the ACC (unless Clemson continues the run...not joking) and have shown no reason to doubt them.

Ohio State 13-2: We may not have seen them at their best yet. WHen Oden is at full strength for the tournament every team better watch out.

Texas A&M 13-2: I've told people all year to watch out for the Aggies, but nobody would listen. Well I'm prepared to say that right now they are the leading national contender. Not one of the leading.....THE leading. Only two losses were to LSU and UCLA. But look at some of their wins. 71-51 over Winthrop. 87-58 over Auburn. 101-27 over Grambling.....that's not a misprint. My mind might change. And I might be wrong (I did pick Texas to win it all last year before the tourney.) but the Aggies are my team of choice right now.

UCLA 14-1: Lost their first game of the season yesterday. That's a good sign to be unbeaten that long.

West Virginia 13-1: I'm surprised to put them here, but so far they have shown that they finally have the defense with their odd offensive season to be a contender.

Wisconsin 15-1: They look like the best team in the Big 10. Only loss was to Missouri State who is probably the best team of the Missouri Valley Conference. That an insult at all.

Pretenders:

Alabama 13-2: After yesterday's thrashing against Arkansas, I think Alabama is a pretender. You can't lose by more than 20 and expect to contend for the title. Ohio State meets that criteria as well but I'm giving them a pass because when you're #1 NBA prospect is not 100% healthy, that may not fully reflect reality.

Nevada 13-1: Best win was against a struggling Gonzaga. Don't be fooled by the record they build up. They'll be gone by the first weekend.

Oklahoma State 15-1: Gaudy record, but this isn't the year for them. Don't really look that great.

Pittsburgh 13-2: Their defense is not good enough to challenge for the national title.

Tennessee 12-2: Have a hell of a coach. But he doesn't have the talent yet to make a big run. Give him a year or two.

Wichita State 10-4: Earlier this year when the Shockers were unbeaten they were everybody's hot mid-major. Then they lost 4 straight. To be fair, they are a solid team. But there are several other mid-majors better than them. Butler and Missouri State are more serious.

UNDECIDED:

Air Force 15-1: The most efficient offense in the country (according to Ken Pomeroy) but their defense is lacking. Haven't decided which camp I would put them in.

Arizona 12-2: Would have been on my contenders list but for yesterday's Washington State loss. May not be that bad but I'm undecided now.

Connecticut 12-2: They're pretty good so far, but I want to see them play (and beat) a quality team.

Clemson 16-0: They're the last unbeaten so they must be doing something right. The Ga Tech is the best win to date. I'd like to reserve judgement till after they play Maryland, UNC and Duke.

Georgetown 11-3: Blowout against Notre Dame may signal they are the preseason Top 10 I thought they were. Let's see how they continue to play.

Louisiana State 11-3: Good win against UConn. How will they do in SEC play.

Notre Dame 13-2: Big loss to Georgetown. Hard to put them in the contenders list after that performance.

Oregon 14-1 Responded beautifully from their first loss by beating UCLA. Team to watch.


And finally, some analysis of my alma mater and perhaps future alma maters.

Appalachian State 12-3: The Mountaineers just keep winning. We'll know if they're the class of the SoCon when they play at Davidson in two weeks.

Wake Forest 9-5: At least they're not as bad as Miami (or NC State for that matter.) The South Florida loss still stings. They'll fight for a winning record this year.

William & Mary 9-4: They'll probably finish middle of the pack in this tough conference. Drexel, VCU, and Old Dominion are the best and that doesn't even include last year's Final Four team George Mason, or one of the two teams who deserved an NCAA bid but didn't get one, Hofstra (Missouri State being the other).