It was a spectacularly mediocre start as I went 2-2 against the spread. Let's see if I can do better this week. Once again, I may update these picks right before kickoff, especially if the last line I see moves substantially. You may not think that's fair. But I missed a game because of it. So I think it's fair as I could be 3-1 instead of 2-2. Anyway here's my picks.
Baltimore (-4) over Indianapolis: Ok Peyton. it's time to silence the doubters. Will this be the year that you take the mantle of "Great quarterback, but he hasn't won a Super Bowl" off your shoulders?" In a word, no. I've said this Indy team is weaker than usual. They were able to win pretty easily against KC but now they go on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL, the Baltimore Ravens. It will be interesting to see how this offense does against a truly talented defense. The offense is going to get some points for Indy, but expect Baltimore to take advantage of any mistakes. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, I'm still not convinced with the Colts' defense. Steve McNair isn't as talented as he used to be, but I don't think he will make any mistakes. Baltimore will turn this into a slow game and pull away late to advance to the AFC Title game.
Philadelphia (+5 1/2) over New Orleans: This should be a good one. Philly is on a six game winning streak but this is in New Orleans for the first playoff game since Katrina. Think the Superdome will be loud? I said the Saints weren't going to lose at home in these playoffs and I still believe that. Having said that, a 5 point spread seems large. I think Philly will keep it closer than that. New Orleans wins in the last minute causing an eruption that the Katrina refugees will hear in Houston.
Chicago (-9) over Seattle: Chicago in all honestly should beat Seattle into a bloody pulp. Seattle shouldn't even be here if Tony Romo could have held onto the snap for the game winning FG. But, he didn't and my preseason pick to win it all has a chance to knock off the Bears. I'm leery though. Chicago is favored by 8 1/2. That means they have to win by 9 if I take Chicago. And Rex Grossman is completely incompetent as a quarterback. If he has another game like he's been having, Seattle can definitely win this game. I'll take a chance. I think Rex has a great game against Seattle. And even if he doesn't I think the defense and Devin Hester will take it up for him against a vastly inferior team. Now if he has a bad game next week I don't know if they can win single-handedly against Philly or New Orleans. But this week, DA BEARS!
And now for the most difficult pick.
New England (+5) over San Diego: It's the best team in the NFL this year (San Diego) versus the best franchise in the last 5-6 years (New England). And it's a 4.5 point spread! Which basically means Vegas has no idea! This is a tough one. Will Tom Brady and the game's best coach lead the Patriots to the win. Or can this year's MVP Ladainian Tomlinson will the Chargers to victory. I will cast my lot with....the Patriots. The Chargers are great. But Marty Schottenheimer has not done well in the playoffs and he's going against the master. Philip Rivers is a fine quarterback but I think the Patriots defense is going to give him a miserable game. I'm going with the Patriots not only to cover...but to pull off the upset!
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