Jeb's first round NFL picks

The playoffs are nearly upon us. Bill Simmons tries every year to go 11-0 against the spread and I will attempt to do so this year. Assuming there is exactly 50% chance of winning a particular bet, the odds of going 11-0 are 0.004%. So the odds aren't in my favor, but I'll try anyway.

Kansas City (+7) over Indianapolis: I'm not as bullish on Kansas City's chances as I was earlier this week. Sure Indy's run defense sucks. And Kansas City is going to be giving the ball to LJ virtually every down. But there's several reasons why I still think the Colts will probably advance.

1. Larry Johnson broke the single season carries record. In other words, he could drop dead at any time.

2. The Colts running game isn't too bad either with Addai.

3. If the Colts allow too many points, it's not like they're gonna have to much trouble scoring with Addai, Peyton Manning, and Marvin Harrison.

4. It is a home game for Indy so their defense will probably be able to play better because of the turf and being in the dome.

So I think the Colts will advance. But I'm not picking that. I'm picking against the spread. And the Chiefs do have a chance to win and will probably make it difficult on the Colts. And Indy is notorious for laying eggs in the playoffs (see last year). So I'm picking the Chiefs.

Dallas (+1 1/2) over Seattle: Probably two of the most exasperating teams in the playoffs. One week Dallas looks like a Super Bowl contender. And another week they look terrible. Seattle hasn't looked as bipolar, but they never really looked spectacular. Which isn't good since I picked them as my Super Bowl champion in the preseason. This is probably the most even match in the first round of games. And even though it's on the road, I think Dallas pulls off the mild upset. I figure Bill Parcells has given Tony Romo a stern talking to and Romo will return to his mid-season form to carry the Cowboys to victory.

Note- I'm checking the spreads as close to the start of the game as possible and adjusting them sometimes changing the pick. I will not change the line nor my analysis once the game starts.

New York Jets(+ 9) over New England: Looked at this matchup a little more and I've decided to pick the Jets to cover. Why? The Jets played the Patriots tough twice during the season (and actually beat them once). So it may be a tougher game than I originally thought. I still think the Patriots have the best player in Tom Brady and the best coach in Bill Belichick so they will advance. But the line keeps getting larger. And I can't say with honesty after reviewing the matchup that the Patriots are a touchdown and a field goal better. But I may pay for my doubting. We'll have to see.

New York Giants (+7) over Philadelphia: The Giants have to breathing a sigh of relief just to be in the playoffs. But have they awoken in time to stay around a long time? The team is so talented but we'll have to see. Meanwhile, the Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the league with Jeff Garcia taking the reins at QB and the defense playing much better. I like Philly in this game but it could be a barn burner. And I'm not so sure Philly wins by more than a touchdown. Thus, I'm picking the Giants.